FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München

Bundesliga Gameweek 9 Sat, Nov 7 · 14:30 MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05 5th · 10 pts · 6 played WLWLW

VS— Compare

Bayern München 1st · 14 pts · 6 played DWWDW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bayern München are clear favourites.

Bayern München are the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 55). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FSV Mainz 05. FSV Mainz 05 have 7.8 days of rest, Bayern München 3.8 and have to travel 316 km.

Away travel316 kmRest days7.8 · 3.8Matches / 14d1 · 3

FSV Mainz 0512%

Draw14%

Bayern München74%

Expected goals 1.31 – 3.17

FSV Mainz 0513%

Draw20%

Bayern München66%

Expected goals 0.84 – 2.12

FSV Mainz 0512%

Draw14%

Bayern München74%

Expected goals 1.31 – 3.17

FSV Mainz 058%

Draw11%

Bayern München81%

Expected goals 1.17 – 3.55

FSV Mainz 0514%

Draw16%

Bayern München70%

Expected goals 1.18 – 2.75

Over 2.5 82% Both score 70% Likeliest score 1–3

EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Mainz)

Forecast from 23 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

FSV Mainz 05

Bayern München

55 L90 StrengthIn forecast 94

55 Current StrengthIn forecast 93

68 AttackIn forecast 96

56 DefenceIn forecast 90

70 Form indexContext 78

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FSV Mainz 05

Attack−39%

Defense risk+107%

Bayern München

Attack−4%

Defense risk+7%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

FSV Mainz 05

Bayern München

2.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.67

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.83

2.14 xGVia Att/Def 3.57

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.10

83% Scored inContext 83%

50% Clean sheetsContext 33%

17.83 ShotsContext 24.17

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 10.33

34% On target shareContext 43%

13.33 Shots in the boxContext 14.50

76% Box shareContext 61%

13% ConversionContext 15%

2.40 OffsidesContext 2.67

12.50 Shots allowedContext 7.67

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.83

4.17 BlocksContext 3.00

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40

57% Save rateContext 75%

51% PossessionIn forecast 69%

446 PassesContext 706

357 Accurate passesContext 635

80% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.94 Team ratingContext 7.39

13.83 FoulsContext 10.50

11.17 Fouls sufferedContext 9.33

2.33 Yellow cardsContext 0.83

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.60

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

2.21 xGVia Att/Def 3.27

1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.33

90% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

17.10 ShotsContext 22.80

6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 9.80

36% On target shareContext 43%

12.80 Shots in the boxContext 13.40

75% Box shareContext 59%

13% ConversionContext 16%

2.22 OffsidesContext 2.90

12.50 Shots allowedContext 8.10

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.11

3.30 BlocksContext 3.50

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38

58% Save rateContext 70%

48% PossessionIn forecast 68%

420 PassesContext 693

337 Accurate passesContext 625

80% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.94 Team ratingContext 7.30

12.80 FoulsContext 8.60

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 8.70

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 0.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FSV Mainz 05 WLWLW

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km222 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected

W17 OctA · FC Schalke 041–01.3 xPts
L10 OctH · Bayer Leverkusen3–41.2 xPts
W19 SepA · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–31.5 xPts
L12 SepH · Eintracht Frankfurt1–31.9 xPts
W6 SepA · Hamburger SV5–01.4 xPts

Bayern München WWDDW

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel316 km3,523 km in 14d

Schedule load31%Moderate

Form 78 · 11 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected

W17 OctH · RB Leipzig6–12.4 xPts
D13 OctA · Viking3–32.8 xPts
D10 OctA · FC Augsburg2–22.4 xPts
W18 SepH · Union Berlin7–02.8 xPts
W13 SepA · SV Elversberg2–12.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FSV Mainz 05	Bayern München
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 31
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 30 Oct	3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 3 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	316 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	222 km	3,523 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	2 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	15	13.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FSV Mainz 05 Last XI · not confirmed

3-5-2 · vs FC Schalke 04 (A) 1–0, 17 Oct

1A. Schwolow(G)

48K. Potulski 4S. Posch 21D. da Costa

2P. Mwene 7J. Lee 6K. Sano 10N. Amiri 19A. Caci

9P. Tietz 23S. Becker

Bayern München Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs RB Leipzig (H) 6–1, 17 Oct

40J. Urbig(G)

11N. Brown 3M. Kim 2D. Upamecano 27K. Laimer

45A. Pavlović 6J. Kimmich

14L. Díaz 34I. Saibari 17M. Olise

9H. Kane

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FSV Mainz 05 No reported absences

Bayern München No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

FSV Mainz 05+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Bayern München+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

FSV Mainz 05 · Home 0.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-2
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 2.33

Bayern München · Away 1.67points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-0
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	FSV Mainz 05	Bayern München
FC Schalke 04	W 1–0 A	D 0–0 A
Points	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 FSV Mainz 05 wins1 draws6 Bayern München wins

Goals per game1.80 – 3.10 Over 2.5100% Both scored90% Clean sheets0% · 10%

25 Apr 2026FSV Mainz 053–4Bayern München
14 Dec 2025Bayern München2–2FSV Mainz 05
26 Apr 2025Bayern München3–0FSV Mainz 05
14 Dec 2024FSV Mainz 052–1Bayern München
9 Mar 2024Bayern München8–1FSV Mainz 05
21 Oct 2023FSV Mainz 051–3Bayern München

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FSV Mainz 05	Bayern München	Forecast
Scored per game	2.33	3.67
Conceded per game	1.67	0.83
Match goals	4.00	4.50	4.48
Over 1.5	67%	83%
Over 2.5	67%	83%	82%
Over 3.5	67%	67%
Both teams scored	50%	67%	70%
Clean sheets	50%	33%
Failed to score	17%	17%
Games	6	6

	FSV Mainz 05	Bayern München	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	3.60
Conceded per game	1.80	0.90
Match goals	4.00	4.50	4.48
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	80%	82%
Over 3.5	60%	70%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	70%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FSV Mainz 05	Bayern München	League
Corners
Corners won	4.83	9.40
Corners conceded	4.00	3.20
Match total	8.83	12.60	10.72
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	100% 5/5
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	100% 5/5
Over 10.5	17% 1/6	100% 5/5
Cards
Cards	2.33	0.83
Opponent cards	2.00	2.17
Match total	4.33	3.00	3.51
Over 3.5	50% 3/6	50% 3/6
Over 4.5	17% 1/6	0% 0/6

	FSV Mainz 05	Bayern München	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	8.44
Corners conceded	4.90	3.78
Match total	9.70	12.22	10.72
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	100% 9/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.00
Opponent cards	1.90	1.90
Match total	3.80	2.90	3.51
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.