FSV Mainz 05

5th · Bundesliga · 10 points · Matches played: 6

4 points behind Bayern München · Table & Fixtures →

L90 Strength L90 Strength is LOAD90’s own club strength rating on a fixed 0–100 scale, built from its Elo rating. League Strength uses the mean Elo of a league's clubs and a separate league calibration, so the two scores are not directly comparable.

+7.6 is current form. We look at the goals the team scores and concedes and at the quality of its chances (expected goals, xG) over recent matches. If attack and defence are playing above what the Elo rating predicts, L90 Strength goes up for the forecast; if below, it goes down.

Base L90 Strength changed +2.9 over the last 5 matches; that is already inside the number. 55.1+7.6
World Rank 67th Global, by Elo
Bundesliga Rank 7th L90 Strength
Last FC Schalke 04A xG 1.5–0.3 1–0 Next Werder BremenH 56%

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Upcoming fixtures

FSV Mainz 05 · All competitions

Forecast
Werder BremenBundesliga 2026-2027 · Home 56% win 1.89 xPts SV ElversbergBundesliga 2026-2027 · Away 45% win 1.57 xPts Bayern MünchenBundesliga 2026-2027 · Home 12% win 0.50 xPts FC AugsburgBundesliga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Union BerlinBundesliga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts RB LeipzigBundesliga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts SC FreiburgBundesliga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts 1.FC KölnBundesliga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Borussia DortmundBundesliga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts VfB StuttgartBundesliga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Hamburger SVBundesliga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts FC Schalke 04Bundesliga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Werder BremenBundesliga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts SV ElversbergBundesliga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Bayern MünchenBundesliga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts FC AugsburgBundesliga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Union BerlinBundesliga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts RB LeipzigBundesliga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts SC FreiburgBundesliga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts 1.FC KölnBundesliga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Borussia DortmundBundesliga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts VfB StuttgartBundesliga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts

xPts = 3 × win probability + draw probability. — means no published forecast. Open a match for xG and the full forecast.

Results

FSV Mainz 05 · All competitions

Full time
FC Schalke 04Bundesliga 2026-2027 · Away W 1–0 1.5–0.3 xG +1.7 Δpts Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga 2026-2027 · Home L 3–4 2.4–1.6 xG -1.2 Δpts Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga 2026-2027 · Away W 4–3 2.8–3.2 xG +1.5 Δpts Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga 2026-2027 · Home L 1–3 2.1–2.0 xG -1.9 Δpts Hamburger SVBundesliga 2026-2027 · Away W 5–0 2.8–0.2 xG +1.6 Δpts SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga 2026-2027 · Home D 0–0 1.2–0.7 xG -0.9 Δpts

Score and actual xG show FSV Mainz 05 first. Δpts = points taken − pre-match xPts. — means data unavailable.

Current load Low · 0

Rest profile7 days since last match
0%
Schedule load2 matches in last 14 days
0%
Travel loadHome match, 377 km in 14 days
0%
Squad availability6 out, 3 key: D. Kohr, P. Nebel · Last match: 17 Oct
17%

Load before the next match, vs Werder Bremen, 24 Oct. Squad availability is shown separately and is not part of the score; availability is the share of squad weight missing, the same input the forecast uses for absences.

Schedule difficulty all competitions

Each bar is one match: 50% match difficulty from current relative Elo strength + 50% calendar load (rest, match congestion and travel). Higher means harder, on a 0–100 scale. This is a descriptive index, not a win probability. Lighter bars are upcoming; the dashed line marks today. Grey marks missing data. 29 Aug vs SC Paderborn 07: Schedule difficulty 18/100; match difficulty 35/100
D
 Aug 6 Sep at Hamburger SV: Schedule difficulty 22/100; match difficulty 37/100
W
 Sep 12 Sep vs Eintracht Frankfurt: Schedule difficulty 22/100; match difficulty 44/100
L
 19 Sep at Borussia Mönchengladbach: Schedule difficulty 17/100; match difficulty 34/100
W
 10 Oct vs Bayer Leverkusen: Schedule difficulty 36/100; match difficulty 72/100
L
 Oct 17 Oct at FC Schalke 04: Schedule difficulty 21/100; match difficulty 42/100
W
 24 Oct vs Werder Bremen: Schedule difficulty 20/100; match difficulty 40/100 30 Oct at SV Elversberg: Schedule difficulty 19/100; match difficulty 38/100 7 Nov vs Bayern München: Schedule difficulty 45/100; match difficulty 90/100 Nov 22 Nov at FC Augsburg: Schedule difficulty 23/100; match difficulty 45/100 28 Nov vs Union Berlin: Schedule difficulty 19/100; match difficulty 37/100 5 Dec at RB Leipzig: Schedule difficulty 34/100; match difficulty 62/100 Dec 12 Dec vs SC Freiburg: Schedule difficulty 29/100; match difficulty 58/100 19 Dec vs 1.FC Köln: Schedule difficulty 16/100; match difficulty 32/100 9 Jan at Borussia Dortmund: Schedule difficulty 37/100; match difficulty 74/100 Jan 12 Jan vs 1899 Hoffenheim: Schedule difficulty 26/100; match difficulty 44/100 16 Jan at VfB Stuttgart: Schedule difficulty 31/100; match difficulty 62/100 23 Jan at SC Paderborn 07: Schedule difficulty 25/100; match difficulty 35/100 30 Jan vs Hamburger SV: Schedule difficulty 19/100; match difficulty 37/100 6 Feb at Eintracht Frankfurt: Schedule difficulty 22/100; match difficulty 44/100 Feb 13 Feb vs Borussia Mönchengladbach: Schedule difficulty 17/100; match difficulty 34/100 20 Feb at Bayer Leverkusen: Schedule difficulty 36/100; match difficulty 72/100 27 Feb vs FC Schalke 04: Schedule difficulty 21/100; match difficulty 42/100 2 Mar at Werder Bremen: Schedule difficulty 27/100; match difficulty 40/100 Mar 6 Mar vs SV Elversberg: Schedule difficulty 27/100; match difficulty 38/100 13 Mar at Bayern München: Schedule difficulty 56/100; match difficulty 90/100 20 Mar vs FC Augsburg: Schedule difficulty 23/100; match difficulty 45/100 3 Apr at Union Berlin: Schedule difficulty 22/100; match difficulty 37/100 Apr 10 Apr vs RB Leipzig: Schedule difficulty 31/100; match difficulty 62/100 17 Apr at SC Freiburg: Schedule difficulty 29/100; match difficulty 58/100 24 Apr at 1.FC Köln: Schedule difficulty 16/100; match difficulty 32/100 8 May vs Borussia Dortmund: Schedule difficulty 37/100; match difficulty 74/100 May 15 May at 1899 Hoffenheim: Schedule difficulty 22/100; match difficulty 44/100 22 May vs VfB Stuttgart: Schedule difficulty 31/100; match difficulty 62/100

Schedule next 30 days · forecast and load

All fixtures and load →
Rest7 daysbefore WER
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel / 14d377 kmaway trips
Schedule load0%Low
vs Werder BremenSat 24 Oct, 14:30 Bundesliga 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 43 56%win20%draw23%loss Low load · 7 d rest at SV ElversbergFri 30 Oct, 19:30 Bundesliga 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 42 45%win23%draw33%loss Low load · 6.3 d rest vs Bayern MünchenSat 7 Nov, 14:30 Bundesliga 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 94 12%win14%draw74%loss Low load · 7.8 d rest
Win · draw · loss: LOAD90 forecastLoad bar: rest, matches and travel before each game (context; only 4+ matches in 14 days changes the forecast)
Full match preview oneScored → vs Werder Bremen, 24 OctOdds, value, live score

Fixture Swing

Opponent opportunity across the next 3 matches · all competitions

3 of 3 forecasts available

Attack Swing−7%

Baseline 6.04 → Forecast 5.59 expected goals · 3 included matches

Conceding Swing+26%

Baseline 5.00 → Forecast 6.30 expected goals conceded · 3 included matches

Opportunity for the next 3 matches
MatchAttackConceding riskGoals · Baseline → Forecast
vs Werder Bremen24 Oct · Bundesliga 2026-2027 +6% −4% 2.19 → 2.33
at SV Elversberg30 Oct · Bundesliga 2026-2027 +14% −14% 1.72 → 1.96
vs Bayern München7 Nov · Bundesliga 2026-2027 −39% +107% 2.13 → 1.31

Swing compares total forecast goals with total baseline goals for the included matches. Forecasts are available up to 21 days ahead. Missing snapshots and different model revisions are excluded; a partial window covers only the matches shown with values. Your team's own conditions are kept in each baseline.

Next match · Match Opportunity

FSV Mainz 05

Baseline: average Bundesliga opponent

Attack Uplift +6% Expected goals Baseline2.19Forecast2.33
Conceding Risk −4% Expected goals conceded Baseline1.54Forecast1.48
Clean Sheet +1.4 pp Chance of conceding no goals Baseline21.4%Forecast22.8%