ADO Den Haag
Attack−11%
Defense risk+5%
Our take
Heerenveen are slight favourites.
Heerenveen are the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Heerenveen. ADO Den Haag have 7.2 days of rest, Heerenveen 8 and have to travel.
Rest days7.2 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
ADO Den Haag28%
Draw24%
Heerenveen48%
ADO Den Haag30%
Draw27%
Heerenveen43%
ADO Den Haag28%
Draw24%
Heerenveen48%
ADO Den Haag21%
Draw22%
Heerenveen56%
ADO Den Haag28%
Draw25%
Heerenveen47%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (‘s-Gravenhage)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for ADO Den Haag and Heerenveen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
ADO Den Haag
78%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Heerenveen
4
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
ADO Den Haag
2.2
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Heerenveen
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
ADO Den Haag
−1.27
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.93xG against2.20
-
Insight
Heerenveen
−0.31
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.27xG against1.58
Attack
Defence
-
Insight
Heerenveen
4
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
ADO Den Haag
2.2
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
ADO Den Haag
2.2
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
ADO Den Haag
−1.27
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.93xG against2.20
-
Insight
Heerenveen
−0.31
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.27xG against1.58
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
ADO Den HaagHeerenveen
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
31
15
AttackIn forecast
36
18
DefenceIn forecast
40
24
Form indexContext
39
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeerenveen
Attack+14%
Defense risk−22%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
ADO Den HaagHeerenveen
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
2.22
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.22
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
2.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
78%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
44%
11.22
ShotsContext
15.11
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
32%
On target shareContext
40%
7.25
Shots in the boxContext
9.56
58%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.20
17.33
Shots allowedContext
14.56
6.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.78
BlocksContext
4.44
4.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
67%
Save rateContext
73%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
411
PassesContext
493
334
Accurate passesContext
421
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.92
14.00
FoulsContext
8.67
10.11
Fouls sufferedContext
10.78
1.56
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
2.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
70%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.60
ShotsContext
14.90
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
31%
On target shareContext
40%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
58%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.20
16.30
Shots allowedContext
15.20
6.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
4.60
BlocksContext
4.70
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
67%
Save rateContext
69%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
417
PassesContext
498
338
Accurate passesContext
425
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.88
13.70
FoulsContext
8.40
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
ADO Den Haag
LLDDW
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 24 · 5 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected
Heerenveen
LDWLW
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| ADO Den Haag |
Heerenveen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 17 Oct | 8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 16 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
ADO Den Haag
Last XI · not confirmed
1K. Nikiéma(G)
18S. Sylla
4M. Waem
3P. Mulder
22L. Wilhelm
5J. Jensen-Abbew
11E. Rottier
25J. Kilo
8J. Žambůrek
9J. Bal
46Y. Eduardo
Heerenveen
Last XI · not confirmed
1B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
3M. Willemsen
4S. Kersten
45O. Braude
8N. Courtens
16M. Linday
7M. Rivera
14L. Smans
20J. Trenskow
9D. Vente
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences ADO Den Haag
No reported absences
Heerenveen
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- ADO Den Haag+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Heerenveen+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
ADO Den Haag · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.25
Heerenveen · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | ADO Den Haag | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Telstar | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Twente | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| Points | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| ADO Den Haag | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.22 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 3.44 | 2.89 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 56% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 33% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| ADO Den Haag | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.22 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.44 | 2.60 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 30% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 40% | |
| Games | 9 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| ADO Den Haag | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.14 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.14 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 10.28 | 10.00 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.44 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 3.11 | 2.33 | 2.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 4/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 11% 1/9 | 0% 0/9 | |
| ADO Den Haag | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.63 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 9.88 | 10.40 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 2.20 | 2.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
ADO Den Haag9 games · scored 11 · conceded 20
1
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
31-45
4
46-60
1
8
61-75
3
2
76-90
Heerenveen9 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
ADO Den Haag10 games · scored 11 · conceded 21
1
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
31-45
4
46-60
1
9
61-75
3
2
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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