NEC Nijmegen
Attack+9%
Defense risk+8%
Our take
NEC Nijmegen are slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards NEC Nijmegen. NEC Nijmegen have 2.9 days of rest, Groningen 6.9 and have to travel 161 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel161 kmRest days2.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d3 · 2
NEC Nijmegen52%
Draw21%
Groningen27%
NEC Nijmegen45%
Draw27%
Groningen28%
NEC Nijmegen52%
Draw21%
Groningen27%
NEC Nijmegen43%
Draw22%
Groningen35%
NEC Nijmegen51%
Draw22%
Groningen27%
Over 2.5 73%
Both score 71%
Likeliest score 2–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nijmegen)
10°CDrizzle
- Precipitation 52%
- Wind 17 km/h
- Humidity 65%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for NEC Nijmegen and Groningen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
NEC Nijmegen
+0.55
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.94xG against1.39
-
Trend
Groningen
89%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Alert
NEC Nijmegen
2.0
Goals conceded away per match
Last 7 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Groningen
2.4
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Groningen
−0.53
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.62xG against2.15
-
Alert
NEC Nijmegen
2.2
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
NEC Nijmegen
+0.55
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.94xG against1.39
-
Trend
Groningen
2.4
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Groningen
89%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Groningen
9
Scoring in a row
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row -
Trend
NEC Nijmegen
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Alert
NEC Nijmegen
2.0
Goals conceded away per match
Last 7 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
NEC Nijmegen
2.2
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Groningen
−0.53
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.62xG against2.15
-
Alert
Groningen
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Team strength
NEC NijmegenGroningen
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
37
AttackIn forecast
41
33
DefenceIn forecast
21
18
Form indexContext
44
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGroningen
Attack−5%
Defense risk+7%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
NEC NijmegenGroningen
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.44
1.78
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.11
2.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.21
-0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.57
89%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
15.11
ShotsContext
14.78
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.78
28%
On target shareContext
39%
9.78
Shots in the boxContext
10.38
64%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
17%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.56
Shots allowedContext
15.33
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.89
3.11
BlocksContext
4.13
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
58%
Save rateContext
60%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
488
PassesContext
434
401
Accurate passesContext
355
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.59
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.33
FoulsContext
8.89
12.11
Fouls sufferedContext
11.11
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.15
-0.84
Goals minus xGContext
+0.58
70%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.00
ShotsContext
13.80
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
32%
On target shareContext
38%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.44
59%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
16%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.70
Shots allowedContext
15.00
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
2.80
BlocksContext
4.00
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
59%
Save rateContext
60%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
442
PassesContext
425
358
Accurate passesContext
345
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.44
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.70
FoulsContext
9.60
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NEC Nijmegen
LDDDD
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,995 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Form 18 · 4 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected
Groningen
DDWWL
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel161 km403 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 44 · 8 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NEC Nijmegen |
Groningen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 28 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct | 6.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 161 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,995 km | 403 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NEC Nijmegen
Last XI · not confirmed
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville
22A. Kaplan
21T. Storm
35Jamiro Monteiro
18D. Geiger
6D. Nejašmić
34Kevin Kers
99Clement Bischoff
20N. Lebreton
30B. Linssen
Groningen
Last XI · not confirmed
1E. Vaessen(G)
33H. Hateboer
5M. Rente
3T. Blokzijl
14J. Schreuders
24P. Clement
8T. de Jonge
11J. Ondrejka
26T. van Bergen
17D. van der Werff
9B. Willumsson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NEC Nijmegen
No reported absences
Groningen
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- NEC Nijmegen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Groningen+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
NEC Nijmegen · Home
0.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-2
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 2.00
Groningen · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 2.75
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | NEC Nijmegen | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | D 2–2 H | L 2–3 H |
| Ajax | D 1–1 A | L 2–5 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Excelsior | D 2–2 H | W 5–1 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 3–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 7 of 15 · 1.40 per game | 7 of 15 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 NEC Nijmegen wins0 draws2 Groningen wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.00
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 10 May 2026Groningen2–1NEC Nijmegen
- 9 Nov 2025NEC Nijmegen2–0Groningen
- 8 Feb 2025Groningen2–1NEC Nijmegen
- 3 Nov 2024NEC Nijmegen6–0Groningen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NEC Nijmegen | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 2.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.78 | 2.11 | |
| Match goals | 3.44 | 4.56 | 3.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 89% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 89% | 89% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 0% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| NEC Nijmegen | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 4.40 | 3.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 90% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NEC Nijmegen | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.88 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.75 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 8.63 | 9.45 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.78 | 1.44 | |
| Match total | 3.11 | 2.44 | 2.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 5/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| NEC Nijmegen | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.88 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 7.88 | 9.45 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 2.70 | 2.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
NEC Nijmegen9 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
3
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Groningen9 games · scored 22 · conceded 19
4
3
0-15
5
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
3
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
6
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
2
76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 22 · conceded 21
4
3
0-15
5
3
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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