Eredivisie Gameweek 10 Fri, Oct 23 · 19:00 De Adelaarshorst, Deventer
GO Ahead Eagles 9th · 11 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Telstar 16th · 6 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

GO Ahead Eagles are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards GO Ahead Eagles. GO Ahead Eagles have 5.3 days of rest, Telstar 6 and have to travel 105 km. Weather to note: strong wind.

Away travel105 kmRest days5.3 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
GO Ahead Eagles53%
Draw21%
Telstar26%
Expected goals 2.28 – 1.59
GO Ahead Eagles45%
Draw27%
Telstar28%
Expected goals 1.54 – 1.16
GO Ahead Eagles53%
Draw21%
Telstar26%
Expected goals 2.28 – 1.59
GO Ahead Eagles44%
Draw22%
Telstar34%
Expected goals 2.03 – 1.79
GO Ahead Eagles52%
Draw22%
Telstar27%
Expected goals 2.16 – 1.54
Over 2.5 74% Both score 72% Likeliest score 2–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deventer)
11°CDrizzle
  • Precipitation 73%
  • Wind 38 km/h
  • Humidity 88%
Strong wind
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for GO Ahead Eagles and Telstar. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

GO Ahead EaglesTelstar
24 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22
24 Current StrengthIn forecast 22
29 AttackIn forecast 24
17 DefenceIn forecast 13
14 Form indexContext 11
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

GO Ahead Eagles

Attack+23%
Defense risk−11%

Telstar

Attack+18%
Defense risk−3%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

GO Ahead EaglesTelstar
2.22 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.11
2.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.78 xGVia Att/Def 1.70
1.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.40
+0.44 Goals minus xGContext -0.59
100% Scored inContext 56%
0% Clean sheetsContext 11%
15.78 ShotsContext 12.00
6.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.11
39% On target shareContext 26%
10.44 Shots in the boxContext 8.14
66% Box shareContext 62%
14% ConversionContext 9%
1.33 OffsidesContext 1.86
16.89 Shots allowedContext 16.78
5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.67
5.50 BlocksContext 5.25
3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.13
57% Save rateContext 71%
56% PossessionIn forecast 45%
486 PassesContext 400
402 Accurate passesContext 323
83% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.74 Team ratingContext 6.70
7.11 FoulsContext 10.44
9.78 Fouls sufferedContext 12.89
0.78 Yellow cardsContext 1.44
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.54 xGVia Att/Def 1.65
2.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.16
+0.56 Goals minus xGContext -0.45
100% Scored inContext 60%
0% Clean sheetsContext 10%
14.50 ShotsContext 11.50
5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00
39% On target shareContext 26%
10.44 Shots in the boxContext 7.75
66% Box shareContext 63%
15% ConversionContext 10%
1.33 OffsidesContext 1.75
18.80 Shots allowedContext 16.60
5.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.80
6.44 BlocksContext 5.33
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.33
62% Save rateContext 73%
55% PossessionIn forecast 46%
467 PassesContext 394
385 Accurate passesContext 314
82% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.75 Team ratingContext 6.72
7.20 FoulsContext 11.20
9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.90
0.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

GO Ahead Eagles
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km58 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 14 · 4 pts vs 9.0 for an average club · -3.2 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · PEC Zwolle1–41.5 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Sparta Rotterdam3–31.9 xPts
  • D20 SepA · NEC Nijmegen1–11.1 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Groningen1–11.6 xPts
  • D8 SepA · Utrecht3–31.2 xPts
Telstar
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel105 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 11 · 2 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · Feyenoord3–40.7 xPts
  • D11 OctH · ADO Den Haag2–21.9 xPts
  • L20 SepA · AZ Alkmaar0–10.5 xPts
  • D13 SepA · Heerenveen0–01.1 xPts
  • L9 SepA · Twente0–10.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
GO Ahead Eagles Telstar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match5.3Eredivisie 2026-2027, 18 Oct6Eredivisie 2026-2027, 17 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km105 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways58 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 21 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one8.18.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

GO Ahead Eagles Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs PEC Zwolle (A) 1–4, 18 Oct
1C. Haug(G)
5D. James 4J. Kramer 25G. van Zwam 2A. Sampsted
8H. Linthorst 21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray 10S. Tengstedt 16V. Edvardsen
9S. Sigurðarson
Telstar Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Feyenoord (H) 3–4, 17 Oct
1R. Koeman(G)
43M. Peersman 4A. Soualhia 16S. Valk 3G. Alders
17N. Rossen 10T. Owusu 23N. Shenkman
27P. Brouwer 11N. Þórisson 42A. Martha

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
GO Ahead Eagles No reported absences
Telstar No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • GO Ahead Eagles+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Telstar+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

GO Ahead Eagles · Home 2.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-2-0
Scored
2.75
Conceded
1.50
Telstar · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
0.50
Conceded
0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentGO Ahead EaglesTelstar
Sparta Rotterdam D 3–3 H L 1–3 H
NEC Nijmegen D 1–1 A W 2–1 A
AZ Alkmaar L 2–5 A L 0–1 A
ADO Den Haag W 3–1 H D 2–2 H
Feyenoord D 2–2 A L 3–4 H
Points6 of 15 · 1.20 per game4 of 15 · 0.80 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 GO Ahead Eagles wins1 draws1 Telstar wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.50 Over 2.550% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 8 Feb 2026GO Ahead Eagles1–1Telstar
  • 28 Sep 2025Telstar4–2GO Ahead Eagles

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

GO Ahead EaglesTelstarForecast
Scored per game 2.221.11
Conceded per game 2.332.00
Match goals 4.563.11 3.87
Over 1.5 100%67%
Over 2.5 78%67% 74%
Over 3.5 78%56%
Both teams scored 100%56% 72%
Clean sheets 0%11%
Failed to score 0%44%
Games99
GO Ahead EaglesTelstarForecast
Scored per game 2.101.20
Conceded per game 2.301.90
Match goals 4.403.10 3.87
Over 1.5 100%70%
Over 2.5 80%70% 74%
Over 3.5 70%50%
Both teams scored 100%60% 72%
Clean sheets 0%10%
Failed to score 0%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

GO Ahead EaglesTelstarLeague
Corners
Corners won6.334.13
Corners conceded4.786.75
Match total11.1110.8810.39
Over 8.578% 7/963% 5/8
Over 9.578% 7/963% 5/8
Over 10.567% 6/963% 5/8
Cards
Cards0.781.56
Opponent cards0.891.78
Match total1.673.342.77
Over 3.50% 0/944% 4/9
Over 4.50% 0/922% 2/9
GO Ahead EaglesTelstarLeague
Corners
Corners won6.104.13
Corners conceded5.606.75
Match total11.7010.8810.39
Over 8.580% 8/1063% 5/8
Over 9.580% 8/1063% 5/8
Over 10.570% 7/1063% 5/8
Cards
Cards0.901.60
Opponent cards0.901.80
Match total1.803.402.77
Over 3.50% 0/1050% 5/10
Over 4.50% 0/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

GO Ahead Eagles9 games · scored 20 · conceded 21
1 3 0-15
4 1 16-30
1 4 31-45
4 3 46-60
6 4 61-75
4 6 76-90
Telstar9 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
2 2 0-15
2 4 16-30
2 2 31-45
6 46-60
2 1 61-75
2 3 76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 21 · conceded 23
1 4 0-15
4 2 16-30
1 4 31-45
5 3 46-60
6 4 61-75
4 6 76-90
Telstar10 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
2 3 0-15
2 4 16-30
3 2 31-45
6 46-60
2 1 61-75
3 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
GO Ahead Eagles Telstar Oct 2319:00 Utrecht PEC Zwolle Oct 2415:30 Willem II Cambuur Oct 2417:45 ADO Den Haag Heerenveen Oct 2420:00 Fortuna Sittard Excelsior Oct 2511:15 PSV Eindhoven Feyenoord Oct 2513:30 NEC Nijmegen Groningen Oct 2513:30 Sparta Rotterdam Ajax Oct 2515:45 AZ Alkmaar Twente Oct 2519:00