Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior

Eredivisie Gameweek 10 Sun, Oct 25 · 11:15 Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard

Fortuna Sittard 6th · 15 pts · 9 played WLWDD

VS— Compare

Excelsior 10th · 11 pts · 9 played DLDLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fortuna Sittard are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Fortuna Sittard have 6.7 days of rest, Excelsior 8.7 and have to travel 141 km. Weather to note: strong wind.

Away travel141 kmRest days6.7 · 8.7Matches / 14d1 · 2

Fortuna Sittard45%

Draw24%

Excelsior31%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.42

Fortuna Sittard43%

Draw27%

Excelsior30%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20

Fortuna Sittard45%

Draw24%

Excelsior31%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.42

Fortuna Sittard37%

Draw25%

Excelsior38%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.59

Fortuna Sittard45%

Draw24%

Excelsior31%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.43

Over 2.5 61% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sittard)

12°CClear

Precipitation 41%
Wind 33 km/h
Humidity 63%

Strong wind

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Fortuna Sittard 6 Scoring in a row Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Fortuna Sittard

Excelsior

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

19 AttackIn forecast 21

19 DefenceIn forecast 18

45 Form indexContext 11

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fortuna Sittard

Attack+13%

Defense risk−15%

Excelsior

Attack+10%

Defense risk−20%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Fortuna Sittard

Excelsior

1.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.78

1.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

0.93 xGVia Att/Def 1.60

2.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.93

+0.85 Goals minus xGContext +0.18

89% Scored inContext 89%

11% Clean sheetsContext 22%

10.00 ShotsContext 10.78

4.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.78

44% On target shareContext 35%

5.56 Shots in the boxContext 8.25

57% Box shareContext 70%

18% ConversionContext 17%

2.14 OffsidesContext 1.00

19.33 Shots allowedContext 15.67

6.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.22

5.22 BlocksContext 4.22

4.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

71% Save rateContext 64%

35% PossessionIn forecast 43%

316 PassesContext 390

243 Accurate passesContext 309

77% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.73

9.22 FoulsContext 11.56

11.67 Fouls sufferedContext 7.33

1.44 Yellow cardsContext 1.22

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

0.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.47

2.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.89

+0.76 Goals minus xGContext +0.43

80% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.20 ShotsContext 11.30

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

41% On target shareContext 34%

5.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

53% Box shareContext 66%

16% ConversionContext 17%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.00

19.20 Shots allowedContext 15.80

6.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

5.20 BlocksContext 4.50

4.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

71% Save rateContext 65%

36% PossessionIn forecast 43%

318 PassesContext 389

245 Accurate passesContext 309

77% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.73

9.10 FoulsContext 11.80

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 7.60

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fortuna Sittard WLWDD

Rest6.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km188 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 45 · 8 pts vs 8.6 for an average club · +2.7 vs expected

D18 OctA · NEC Nijmegen2–20.9 xPts
D10 OctH · Twente1–10.9 xPts
W19 SepA · Willem II1–01.4 xPts
L12 SepH · Ajax1–50.9 xPts
W6 SepA · ADO Den Haag3–21.3 xPts

Excelsior DLDLL

Rest8.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel141 km302 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 11 · 2 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -4.1 vs expected

L16 OctA · Heerenveen0–40.9 xPts
L11 OctH · Groningen1–51.7 xPts
D19 SepA · Ajax2–20.7 xPts
L13 SepH · Utrecht1–21.9 xPts
D8 SepA · NEC Nijmegen2–21.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fortuna Sittard	Excelsior
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 18 Oct	8.7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 16 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	141 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	188 km	302 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fortuna Sittard Last XI · not confirmed

5-3-2 · vs NEC Nijmegen (A) 2–2, 18 Oct

31M. Branderhorst(G)

28J. Hubner 23P. Brittijn 3R. Guth 6S. van Ottele 12Ivo Pinto

22S. ’t Zand 20É. Michut 14S. Simons

25L. Zeefuik 9A. Descotte

Excelsior Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Heerenveen (A) 0–4, 16 Oct

1S. van Gassel(G)

15Simon Janssen 14J. Plug 4C. Widell 2E. da Silva Moreira

20L. Hartjes 3R. Meissen 8I. Yegoian

30Á. Þorsteinsson 19D. Garden 7Aymen Sliti

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fortuna Sittard No reported absences

Excelsior No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Fortuna Sittard+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Excelsior+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Fortuna Sittard · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 2.25

Excelsior · Away 1.60points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-1
Scored: 2.20
Conceded: 1.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

Opponent	Fortuna Sittard	Excelsior
NEC Nijmegen	D 2–2 A	D 2–2 A
Willem II	W 1–0 A	W 3–0 A
Ajax	L 1–5 H	D 2–2 A
Groningen	W 3–2 A	L 1–5 H
Cambuur	W 3–1 H	W 4–0 A
PSV Eindhoven	D 2–2 A	L 1–2 H
Points	11 of 18 · 1.83 per game	8 of 18 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 Fortuna Sittard wins1 draws1 Excelsior wins

Goals per game1.33 – 1.33 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

20 Feb 2026Fortuna Sittard2–1Excelsior
19 Oct 2025Excelsior1–0Fortuna Sittard
26 Aug 2023Excelsior2–2Fortuna Sittard

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fortuna Sittard	Excelsior	Forecast
Scored per game	1.78	1.78
Conceded per game	1.89	2.00
Match goals	3.67	3.78	3.16
Over 1.5	89%	100%
Over 2.5	67%	100%	61%
Over 3.5	67%	56%
Both teams scored	78%	67%	63%
Clean sheets	11%	22%
Failed to score	11%	11%
Games	9	9

	Fortuna Sittard	Excelsior	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.90
Conceded per game	1.90	2.00
Match goals	3.50	3.90	3.16
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	60%	100%	61%
Over 3.5	60%	60%
Both teams scored	70%	70%	63%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fortuna Sittard	Excelsior	League
Corners
Corners won	3.33	4.25
Corners conceded	8.67	4.50
Match total	12.00	8.75	10.39
Over 8.5	83% 5/6	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	67% 4/6	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	67% 4/6	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	1.56	1.22
Opponent cards	1.78	0.78
Match total	3.34	2.00	2.77
Over 3.5	44% 4/9	11% 1/9
Over 4.5	22% 2/9	0% 0/9

	Fortuna Sittard	Excelsior	League
Corners
Corners won	3.43	4.00
Corners conceded	7.71	4.56
Match total	11.14	8.56	10.39
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	57% 4/7	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.10
Opponent cards	1.60	1.10
Match total	3.10	2.20	2.77
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.