Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle – 24 Oct 2026

Eredivisie Gameweek 10 Sat, Oct 24 · 15:30 Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht

Utrecht 11th · 11 pts · 9 played DWLWW

VS— Compare

PEC Zwolle 15th · 7 pts · 9 played DLLLW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Utrecht are clear favourites.

Utrecht are the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 16). Utrecht have 5.9 days of rest, PEC Zwolle 6.2 and have to travel 81 km. Weather to note: strong wind.

Away travel81 kmRest days5.9 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Utrecht61%

Draw20%

PEC Zwolle18%

Expected goals 2.25 – 1.16

Utrecht58%

Draw23%

PEC Zwolle18%

Expected goals 1.87 – 0.96

Utrecht61%

Draw20%

PEC Zwolle18%

Expected goals 2.25 – 1.16

Utrecht53%

Draw23%

PEC Zwolle24%

Expected goals 2.00 – 1.30

Utrecht61%

Draw20%

PEC Zwolle18%

Expected goals 2.24 – 1.16

Over 2.5 66% Both score 62% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 7 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Utrecht)

12°COvercast

Precipitation 49%
Wind 26 km/h
Humidity 68%

Strong wind

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Utrecht

PEC Zwolle

34 L90 StrengthIn forecast 16

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 16

32 AttackIn forecast 17

31 DefenceIn forecast 14

65 Form indexContext 15

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Utrecht

Attack+22%

Defense risk−20%

PEC Zwolle

Attack−4%

Defense risk−3%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Utrecht

PEC Zwolle

1.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.11

2.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.44

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.69

+0.47 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

89% Scored inContext 56%

0% Clean sheetsContext 11%

12.89 ShotsContext 12.00

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22

34% On target shareContext 35%

10.25 Shots in the boxContext 7.33

69% Box shareContext 59%

14% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

18.11 Shots allowedContext 19.44

7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.78

4.33 BlocksContext 5.78

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.33

57% Save rateContext 64%

43% PossessionIn forecast 41%

391 PassesContext 348

313 Accurate passesContext 265

80% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.55 Team ratingContext 6.59

16.33 FoulsContext 11.22

10.67 Fouls sufferedContext 9.89

2.11 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.40

1.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.20

1.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.90

+0.52 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

90% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.70 ShotsContext 11.50

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

33% On target shareContext 34%

10.67 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

68% Box shareContext 58%

14% ConversionContext 9%

1.83 OffsidesContext 2.00

17.60 Shots allowedContext 19.70

6.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.90

4.10 BlocksContext 5.60

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50

57% Save rateContext 65%

43% PossessionIn forecast 42%

388 PassesContext 355

312 Accurate passesContext 271

80% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.60 Team ratingContext 6.60

15.80 FoulsContext 11.20

10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Utrecht DWLWW

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km244 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 65 · 10 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +4.2 vs expected

W18 OctA · Twente2–10.7 xPts
W11 OctH · Willem II3–12.1 xPts
L20 SepA · Feyenoord0–50.5 xPts
W13 SepA · Excelsior2–10.9 xPts
D8 SepH · GO Ahead Eagles3–31.6 xPts

PEC Zwolle DLLLW

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel81 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 15 · 4 pts vs 9.0 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected

W18 OctH · GO Ahead Eagles4–11.3 xPts
L11 OctH · Cambuur0–11.4 xPts
L18 SepA · Groningen0–30.8 xPts
L13 SepH · Feyenoord0–70.8 xPts
D4 SepA · Sparta Rotterdam2–21.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Utrecht	PEC Zwolle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 18 Oct	6.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	81 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	244 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	8	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Utrecht Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-3 · vs Twente (A) 2–1, 18 Oct

22S. Padt(G)

5N. Panagiotou 3M. Didden 2S. Horemans

92A. Zagré 38O. Agougil 8J. van Overeem 23N. Vesterlund

11Ángel Alarcón 20D. de Wit 10Y. Cathline

PEC Zwolle Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs GO Ahead Eagles (H) 4–1, 18 Oct

1J. Schendelaar(G)

2S. Floranus 24N. Viergever 28S. Graves 3O. Aertssen

8T. Sommer 30R. Thomas

11D. Mbayo 25T. Oosting 37Gilles van der Wal

17S. van Hooijdonk

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Utrecht No reported absences

PEC Zwolle No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Utrecht+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
PEC Zwolle+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Utrecht · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 3.50

PEC Zwolle · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Utrecht	PEC Zwolle
Twente	W 2–1 A	L 1–3 A
Feyenoord	L 0–5 A	L 0–7 H
GO Ahead Eagles	D 3–3 H	W 4–1 H
Sparta Rotterdam	D 3–3 A	D 2–2 A
Groningen	L 1–2 A	L 0–3 A
Points	5 of 15 · 1.00 per game	4 of 15 · 0.80 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

2 Utrecht wins2 draws1 PEC Zwolle wins

Goals per game1.40 – 1.00 Over 2.520% Both scored40% Clean sheets40% · 20%

22 Feb 2026Utrecht1–1PEC Zwolle
31 Aug 2025PEC Zwolle0–2Utrecht
1 Feb 2025PEC Zwolle3–3Utrecht
11 Aug 2024Utrecht1–0PEC Zwolle
27 Aug 2023PEC Zwolle1–0Utrecht

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Utrecht	PEC Zwolle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.78	1.11
Conceded per game	2.89	2.44
Match goals	4.67	3.56	3.41
Over 1.5	100%	89%
Over 2.5	100%	67%	66%
Over 3.5	67%	56%
Both teams scored	89%	44%	62%
Clean sheets	0%	11%
Failed to score	11%	44%
Games	9	9

	Utrecht	PEC Zwolle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.00
Conceded per game	2.60	2.40
Match goals	4.40	3.40	3.41
Over 1.5	100%	90%
Over 2.5	90%	60%	66%
Over 3.5	60%	50%
Both teams scored	80%	40%	62%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	10%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Utrecht	PEC Zwolle	League
Corners
Corners won	4.25	4.33
Corners conceded	5.25	7.22
Match total	9.50	11.55	10.39
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	2.11	1.44
Opponent cards	0.89	1.00
Match total	3.00	2.44	2.77
Over 3.5	33% 3/9	33% 3/9
Over 4.5	22% 2/9	22% 2/9

	Utrecht	PEC Zwolle	League
Corners
Corners won	4.67	4.00
Corners conceded	5.33	7.70
Match total	10.00	11.70	10.39
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.30
Opponent cards	0.90	0.90
Match total	2.80	2.20	2.77
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.