Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax

Eredivisie Gameweek 10 Sun, Oct 25 · 15:45 Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam 13th · 9 pts · 9 played DLLDW

VS— Compare

Ajax 4th · 18 pts · 9 played WWDDW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Ajax are clear favourites.

Ajax are the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 18). Ajax usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Sparta Rotterdam have 7.9 days of rest, Ajax 7 and have to travel 57 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel57 kmRest days7.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Sparta Rotterdam21%

Draw19%

Ajax60%

Expected goals 1.43 – 2.48

Sparta Rotterdam22%

Draw25%

Ajax53%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.73

Sparta Rotterdam21%

Draw19%

Ajax60%

Expected goals 1.43 – 2.48

Sparta Rotterdam15%

Draw17%

Ajax69%

Expected goals 1.27 – 2.78

Sparta Rotterdam21%

Draw20%

Ajax58%

Expected goals 1.37 – 2.31

Over 2.5 75% Both score 70% Likeliest score 1–2

EloLambda forecast, updated 33 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

7°CDrizzle

Precipitation 63%
Wind 15 km/h
Humidity 86%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Alert Sparta Rotterdam 2.4 Goals conceded per match Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals conceded · W/D/L colours

Streaks

Team strength

Sparta Rotterdam

Ajax

18 L90 StrengthIn forecast 53

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 53

32 AttackIn forecast 66

17 DefenceIn forecast 55

20 Form indexContext 63

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack−22%

Defense risk+42%

Ajax

Attack+15%

Defense risk−4%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Sparta Rotterdam

Ajax

1.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00

2.44 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

2.12 xGVia Att/Def 2.06

1.86 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

-0.34 Goals minus xGContext +0.94

78% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 22%

14.56 ShotsContext 22.78

6.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.11

35% On target shareContext 36%

10.22 Shots in the boxContext 16.22

69% Box shareContext 71%

12% ConversionContext 13%

2.67 OffsidesContext 2.13

17.00 Shots allowedContext 10.00

5.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.78 BlocksContext 2.67

3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13

65% Save rateContext 74%

45% PossessionIn forecast 62%

380 PassesContext 581

308 Accurate passesContext 516

81% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.70 Team ratingContext 7.03

10.11 FoulsContext 9.56

9.89 Fouls sufferedContext 9.89

1.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.90

2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

2.05 xGVia Att/Def 2.03

1.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96

-0.25 Goals minus xGContext +0.87

80% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.80 ShotsContext 21.70

6.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.80

34% On target shareContext 36%

10.50 Shots in the boxContext 15.40

70% Box shareContext 71%

12% ConversionContext 13%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.33

16.90 Shots allowedContext 9.50

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

4.60 BlocksContext 2.60

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

62% Save rateContext 74%

46% PossessionIn forecast 62%

384 PassesContext 576

311 Accurate passesContext 509

81% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.70 Team ratingContext 7.05

10.10 FoulsContext 9.80

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sparta Rotterdam DLLDW

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 20 · 5 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected

W17 OctH · Willem II3–22.0 xPts
D10 OctA · GO Ahead Eagles3–30.9 xPts
L19 SepH · Heerenveen0–41.6 xPts
L13 SepA · PSV Eindhoven1–40.2 xPts
D4 SepH · PEC Zwolle2–21.7 xPts

Ajax WWDDW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel57 km294 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 63 · 11 pts vs 9.5 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected

W18 OctA · Groningen5–21.4 xPts
D10 OctH · NEC Nijmegen1–12.1 xPts
D19 SepH · Excelsior2–22.1 xPts
W15 SepH · Willem II5–12.5 xPts
W12 SepA · Fortuna Sittard5–11.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sparta Rotterdam	Ajax
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 17 Oct	7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	57 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	294 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sparta Rotterdam Last XI · not confirmed

5-4-1 · vs Willem II (H) 3–2, 17 Oct

1M. Brouwer(G)

5B. Kuipers 4R. Martins Indi 6N. Verschuren 3M. Young 2Lushendry Edward Martes

11I. Babadi 10C. Hatenboer 8J. Toornstra 7Robin van Cruijsen

9Milan Zonneveld

Ajax Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Groningen (A) 5–2, 18 Oct

1M. ter Stegen(G)

5O. Wijndal 36D. Janse 30A. Bouwman 2Lucas Rosa

24J. Mokio 4S. Amrabat 18D. Klaassen

10O. Gloukh 38Marcos Leonardo 8J. Brandt

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sparta Rotterdam No reported absences

Ajax No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Sparta Rotterdam+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Ajax+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Sparta Rotterdam · Home 1.00points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-2
Scored: 1.60
Conceded: 2.40

Ajax · Away 3.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 4-0-0
Scored: 4.00
Conceded: 0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

Opponent	Sparta Rotterdam	Ajax
Willem II	W 3–2 H	W 5–1 H
Heerenveen	L 0–4 H	D 2–2 H
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–4 A	L 1–3 H
PEC Zwolle	D 2–2 H	W 2–0 A
Excelsior	L 1–2 A	D 2–2 H
Telstar	W 3–1 A	W 4–0 A
Points	7 of 18 · 1.17 per game	11 of 18 · 1.83 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

0 Sparta Rotterdam wins2 draws3 Ajax wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.40 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets0% · 40%

14 Mar 2026Ajax4–0Sparta Rotterdam
4 Oct 2025Sparta Rotterdam3–3Ajax
27 Apr 2025Ajax1–1Sparta Rotterdam
22 Dec 2024Sparta Rotterdam0–2Ajax
9 Dec 2023Ajax2–1Sparta Rotterdam

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sparta Rotterdam	Ajax	Forecast
Scored per game	1.78	3.00
Conceded per game	2.44	1.33
Match goals	4.22	4.33	3.90
Over 1.5	89%	100%
Over 2.5	89%	78%	75%
Over 3.5	78%	78%
Both teams scored	78%	78%	70%
Clean sheets	0%	22%
Failed to score	22%	0%
Games	9	9

	Sparta Rotterdam	Ajax	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	2.70
Conceded per game	2.50	1.20
Match goals	4.30	3.90	3.90
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	90%	70%	75%
Over 3.5	80%	70%
Both teams scored	80%	70%	70%
Clean sheets	0%	30%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sparta Rotterdam	Ajax	League
Corners
Corners won	5.67	6.88
Corners conceded	6.89	3.00
Match total	12.56	9.88	10.39
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	1.67	2.00
Opponent cards	1.11	1.78
Match total	2.78	3.78	2.77
Over 3.5	22% 2/9	56% 5/9
Over 4.5	11% 1/9	33% 3/9

	Sparta Rotterdam	Ajax	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	6.88
Corners conceded	6.40	3.00
Match total	12.00	9.88	10.39
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.90
Opponent cards	1.00	2.00
Match total	2.90	3.90	2.77
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.