AZ Alkmaar vs Twente – 25 Oct 2026

Eredivisie Gameweek 10 Sun, Oct 25 · 19:00 AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar 2nd · 20 pts · 9 played WDWLD

VS— Compare

Twente 5th · 17 pts · 9 played WWWDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AZ Alkmaar are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards AZ Alkmaar. AZ Alkmaar have 3.1 days of rest, Twente 7 and have to travel 153 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel153 kmRest days3.1 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 1

AZ Alkmaar50%

Draw23%

Twente27%

Expected goals 1.97 – 1.41

AZ Alkmaar45%

Draw27%

Twente28%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.17

AZ Alkmaar50%

Draw23%

Twente27%

Expected goals 1.97 – 1.41

AZ Alkmaar42%

Draw24%

Twente34%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.58

AZ Alkmaar49%

Draw24%

Twente27%

Expected goals 1.81 – 1.29

Over 2.5 66% Both score 65% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 33 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Alkmaar)

9°CDrizzle

Precipitation 72%
Wind 21 km/h
Humidity 80%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Streaks

Streak Twente 8 Scoring in a row Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

AZ Alkmaar

Twente

47 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

52 AttackIn forecast 41

49 DefenceIn forecast 49

43 Form indexContext 58

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AZ Alkmaar

Attack−17%

Defense risk+12%

Twente

Attack−17%

Defense risk+25%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

AZ Alkmaar

Twente

2.22 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.89

1.11 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.11

2.34 xGVia Att/Def 1.63

1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.74

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

89% Scored inContext 89%

33% Clean sheetsContext 22%

17.33 ShotsContext 20.56

6.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00

38% On target shareContext 34%

12.38 Shots in the boxContext 13.44

68% Box shareContext 65%

13% ConversionContext 9%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.57

9.00 Shots allowedContext 11.11

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89

2.88 BlocksContext 4.57

1.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

63% Save rateContext 69%

59% PossessionIn forecast 58%

536 PassesContext 535

460 Accurate passesContext 462

86% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.97

11.89 FoulsContext 11.33

11.56 Fouls sufferedContext 8.44

1.22 Yellow cardsContext 0.78

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

2.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.63

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.74

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.27

80% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.90 ShotsContext 20.56

6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00

37% On target shareContext 34%

11.67 Shots in the boxContext 13.44

65% Box shareContext 65%

12% ConversionContext 9%

2.20 OffsidesContext 1.57

9.70 Shots allowedContext 11.11

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89

2.89 BlocksContext 4.57

2.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

68% Save rateContext 69%

59% PossessionIn forecast 58%

543 PassesContext 535

466 Accurate passesContext 462

86% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.97

12.40 FoulsContext 11.33

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 8.44

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AZ Alkmaar LWLWD

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km6,781 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

Form 43 · 7 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

D18 OctA · Cambuur2–21.9 xPts
W15 OctH · Hapoel Beer Sheva2–12.0 xPts
L10 OctA · Feyenoord0–21.0 xPts
W20 SepH · Telstar1–02.4 xPts
L16 SepA · Sunderland0–11.1 xPts

Twente WWWDL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel153 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 58 · 10 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected

L18 OctH · Utrecht1–22.1 xPts
D10 OctA · Fortuna Sittard1–11.9 xPts
W20 SepH · PSV Eindhoven3–21.0 xPts
W12 SepH · ADO Den Haag2–02.4 xPts
W9 SepH · Telstar1–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AZ Alkmaar	Twente
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 33	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct	7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	153 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	6,781 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6	6.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AZ Alkmaar Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Cambuur (A) 2–2, 18 Oct

28J. De Busser(G)

5Mateo Chávez 4L. Schouten 3W. Goes 22Elijah Dijkstra

6P. Koopmeiners 8J. Clasie

11Ro-Zangelo Daal 14C. Stengs 24A. Oufkir

9M. Meerdink

Twente Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Utrecht (H) 1–2, 18 Oct

16J. Drommel(G)

29A. Adelgaard 4Ruud Nijstad 3R. Pröpper 28B. van Rooij

8D. Weidmann 6R. Zerrouki

27S. Ørjasæter 14K. Hlynsson 11D. Rots

9W. Weghorst

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AZ Alkmaar No reported absences

Twente No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

AZ Alkmaar+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Twente+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

AZ Alkmaar · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-0
Scored: 2.25
Conceded: 0.75

Twente · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

Opponent	AZ Alkmaar	Twente
Cambuur	D 2–2 A	W 4–1 A
Telstar	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 H
Heerenveen	W 3–2 A	L 0–1 A
Fortuna Sittard	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 A
Utrecht	W 4–1 A	L 1–2 H
ADO Den Haag	W 2–0 H	W 2–0 H
Points	16 of 18 · 2.67 per game	10 of 18 · 1.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

2 AZ Alkmaar wins1 draws2 Twente wins

Goals per game1.40 – 1.40 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 20%

3 May 2026AZ Alkmaar2–2Twente
30 Nov 2025Twente1–0AZ Alkmaar
14 May 2025Twente2–3AZ Alkmaar
21 Dec 2024AZ Alkmaar1–0Twente
13 Jan 2024Twente2–1AZ Alkmaar

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AZ Alkmaar	Twente	Forecast
Scored per game	2.22	1.89
Conceded per game	1.11	1.11
Match goals	3.33	3.00	3.38
Over 1.5	89%	78%
Over 2.5	44%	56%	66%
Over 3.5	44%	44%
Both teams scored	56%	67%	65%
Clean sheets	33%	22%
Failed to score	11%	11%
Games	9	9

	AZ Alkmaar	Twente	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.90
Conceded per game	1.20	1.20
Match goals	3.20	3.10	3.38
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	66%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	65%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AZ Alkmaar	Twente	League
Corners
Corners won	8.00	7.22
Corners conceded	3.67	3.89
Match total	11.67	11.11	10.39
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	100% 9/9
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	1.22	0.78
Opponent cards	1.44	1.56
Match total	2.66	2.34	2.77
Over 3.5	33% 3/9	22% 2/9
Over 4.5	22% 2/9	0% 0/9

	AZ Alkmaar	Twente	League
Corners
Corners won	7.30	7.22
Corners conceded	3.60	3.89
Match total	10.90	11.11	10.39
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	100% 9/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.00
Opponent cards	1.90	1.60
Match total	3.60	2.60	2.77
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.