PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord

Eredivisie Gameweek 10 Sun, Oct 25 · 13:30 Philips Stadion, Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven 3rd · 19 pts · 9 played WWLWL

VS— Compare

Feyenoord 1st · 23 pts · 9 played WWWWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

PSV Eindhoven are slight favourites.

PSV Eindhoven are the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 61). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Feyenoord. PSV Eindhoven have 4.8 days of rest, Feyenoord 3.8 and have to travel 87 km. Weather to note: strong wind.

Away travel87 kmRest days4.8 · 3.8Matches / 14d3 · 3

PSV Eindhoven44%

Draw23%

Feyenoord33%

Expected goals 1.89 – 1.64

PSV Eindhoven53%

Draw25%

Feyenoord22%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.04

PSV Eindhoven44%

Draw23%

Feyenoord33%

Expected goals 1.89 – 1.64

PSV Eindhoven35%

Draw23%

Feyenoord42%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.84

PSV Eindhoven42%

Draw24%

Feyenoord34%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.55

Over 2.5 69% Both score 69% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 5 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Eindhoven)

11°CDrizzle

Precipitation 41%
Wind 25 km/h
Humidity 78%

Strong wind

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

PSV Eindhoven

Feyenoord

74 L90 StrengthIn forecast 61

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 59

60 AttackIn forecast 76

64 DefenceIn forecast 61

32 Form indexContext 92

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

PSV Eindhoven

Attack−28%

Defense risk+54%

Feyenoord

Attack−30%

Defense risk+37%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

PSV Eindhoven

Feyenoord

3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.44

1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.11

2.43 xGVia Att/Def 2.90

0.91 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.05

+0.57 Goals minus xGContext +0.54

100% Scored inContext 100%

11% Clean sheetsContext 44%

19.44 ShotsContext 21.33

7.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.22

37% On target shareContext 39%

13.44 Shots in the boxContext 15.00

71% Box shareContext 70%

15% ConversionContext 16%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.83

10.89 Shots allowedContext 11.11

4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.88

3.29 BlocksContext 3.25

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

67% Save rateContext 71%

61% PossessionIn forecast 54%

573 PassesContext 490

508 Accurate passesContext 428

89% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.01 Team ratingContext 7.22

9.78 FoulsContext 8.78

9.89 Fouls sufferedContext 12.22

1.56 Yellow cardsContext 1.22

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

2.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.40

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

2.27 xGVia Att/Def 2.42

1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.09

+0.33 Goals minus xGContext +0.98

90% Scored inContext 100%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

17.30 ShotsContext 18.70

6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.50

38% On target shareContext 40%

11.60 Shots in the boxContext 12.80

67% Box shareContext 68%

15% ConversionContext 18%

2.22 OffsidesContext 2.71

11.70 Shots allowedContext 12.50

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.56 BlocksContext 3.67

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

71% Save rateContext 62%

58% PossessionIn forecast 50%

526 PassesContext 473

464 Accurate passesContext 410

88% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.95 Team ratingContext 7.06

10.50 FoulsContext 10.20

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

PSV Eindhoven WLWLL

Rest4.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km4,097 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

Form 32 · 6 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected

L17 OctA · ADO Den Haag1–22.4 xPts
L13 OctA · RB Leipzig0–11.2 xPts
W9 OctH · Heerenveen2–02.5 xPts
L20 SepA · Twente2–31.8 xPts
W13 SepH · Sparta Rotterdam4–12.7 xPts

Feyenoord WWWWW

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel87 km3,745 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

Form 92 · 15 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected

W17 OctA · Telstar4–32.1 xPts
W14 OctH · Como3–21.6 xPts
W10 OctH · AZ Alkmaar2–01.8 xPts
W20 SepH · Utrecht5–02.3 xPts
W13 SepA · PEC Zwolle7–02.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	PSV Eindhoven	Feyenoord
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Moderate · 25
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 20 Oct	3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 21 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	87 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	4,097 km	3,745 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

PSV Eindhoven Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs ADO Den Haag (A) 1–2, 17 Oct

32M. Kovář(G)

18F. Kostić 4A. Obispo 2L. Geertruida 8S. Dest

17Mauro Júnior 24K. Sano

35A. Santos 20G. Til 27D. Man

21S. Mijnans

Feyenoord Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Telstar (A) 4–3, 17 Oct

1T. Ernst(G)

35Mika Màrmol 24T. Kraaijeveld 4T. Watanabe 26G. Read

34C. Vanhoutte 8G. Zechiël

27G. Diarra 14S. Steijn 23A. Hadj Moussa

19Nacho Ferri

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

PSV Eindhoven No reported absences

Feyenoord No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

PSV Eindhoven+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Feyenoord+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

PSV Eindhoven · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-0
Scored: 3.25
Conceded: 1.00

Feyenoord · Away 3.00points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 5-0-0
Scored: 4.00
Conceded: 1.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	PSV Eindhoven	Feyenoord
ADO Den Haag	L 1–2 A	D 2–2 H
Sparta Rotterdam	W 4–1 H	W 1–0 A
Utrecht	W 6–1 A	W 5–0 H
Points	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game	7 of 9 · 2.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

5 PSV Eindhoven wins0 draws0 Feyenoord wins

Goals per game2.80 – 1.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 0%

1 Feb 2026PSV Eindhoven3–0Feyenoord
26 Oct 2025Feyenoord2–3PSV Eindhoven
11 May 2025Feyenoord2–3PSV Eindhoven
22 Dec 2024PSV Eindhoven3–0Feyenoord
3 Dec 2023Feyenoord1–2PSV Eindhoven

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	PSV Eindhoven	Feyenoord	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	3.44
Conceded per game	1.33	1.11
Match goals	4.33	4.56	3.53
Over 1.5	100%	89%
Over 2.5	89%	78%	69%
Over 3.5	67%	78%
Both teams scored	89%	56%	69%
Clean sheets	11%	44%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	9	9

	PSV Eindhoven	Feyenoord	Forecast
Scored per game	2.60	3.40
Conceded per game	1.20	1.70
Match goals	3.80	5.10	3.53
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	70%	90%	69%
Over 3.5	50%	90%
Both teams scored	80%	70%	69%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	10%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	PSV Eindhoven	Feyenoord	League
Corners
Corners won	5.29	6.22
Corners conceded	3.86	4.11
Match total	9.15	10.33	10.39
Over 8.5	57% 4/7	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	1.67	1.22
Opponent cards	2.00	1.44
Match total	3.67	2.66	2.77
Over 3.5	33% 3/9	44% 4/9
Over 4.5	33% 3/9	11% 1/9

	PSV Eindhoven	Feyenoord	League
Corners
Corners won	5.44	5.20
Corners conceded	3.89	3.70
Match total	9.33	8.90	10.39
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.30
Opponent cards	2.40	1.40
Match total	4.30	2.70	2.77
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.