Willem II vs Cambuur – 24 Oct 2026

Eredivisie Gameweek 10 Sat, Oct 24 · 17:45 Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg

Willem II 18th · 2 pts · 9 played DLLLL

VS— Compare

Cambuur 14th · 9 pts · 9 played DWDWD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Cambuur are slight favourites.

Cambuur are the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 10). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Cambuur. Willem II have 6.9 days of rest, Cambuur 6.2 and have to travel 190 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel190 kmRest days6.9 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Willem II29%

Draw24%

Cambuur47%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.80

Willem II30%

Draw27%

Cambuur43%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.49

Willem II29%

Draw24%

Cambuur47%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.80

Willem II22%

Draw22%

Cambuur55%

Expected goals 1.22 – 2.01

Willem II29%

Draw24%

Cambuur47%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.79

Over 2.5 61% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Tilburg)

10°CDrizzle

Precipitation 47%
Wind 25 km/h
Humidity 89%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Willem II

Cambuur

10 L90 StrengthIn forecast 23

10 Current StrengthIn forecast 23

10 AttackIn forecast 22

9 DefenceIn forecast 23

8 Form indexContext 51

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Willem II

Attack+6%

Defense risk−13%

Cambuur

Attack+36%

Defense risk−33%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Willem II

Cambuur

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.44

2.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.33

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

2.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.03

-0.28 Goals minus xGContext +0.25

78% Scored inContext 89%

0% Clean sheetsContext 22%

11.67 ShotsContext 11.89

2.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44

24% On target shareContext 37%

7.78 Shots in the boxContext 8.33

68% Box shareContext 71%

9% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

20.33 Shots allowedContext 14.78

7.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.67

4.33 BlocksContext 4.00

4.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.88

61% Save rateContext 63%

40% PossessionIn forecast 46%

356 PassesContext 369

276 Accurate passesContext 295

78% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.47 Team ratingContext 6.79

9.78 FoulsContext 12.11

9.89 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.67

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

2.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

2.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.03

-0.28 Goals minus xGContext +0.21

80% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.67 ShotsContext 14.10

2.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

24% On target shareContext 35%

7.78 Shots in the boxContext 9.30

68% Box shareContext 69%

9% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.11

20.33 Shots allowedContext 13.80

7.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

4.33 BlocksContext 3.70

4.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67

61% Save rateContext 64%

40% PossessionIn forecast 49%

356 PassesContext 395

276 Accurate passesContext 317

78% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.47 Team ratingContext 6.84

9.78 FoulsContext 12.40

9.89 Fouls sufferedContext 14.70

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Willem II DLLLL

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km236 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 8 · 1 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · -2.5 vs expected

L17 OctA · Sparta Rotterdam2–30.8 xPts
L11 OctA · Utrecht1–30.7 xPts
L19 SepH · Fortuna Sittard0–11.4 xPts
L15 SepA · Ajax1–50.3 xPts
D11 SepA · AZ Alkmaar1–10.3 xPts

Cambuur DWDWD

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel190 km158 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 51 · 9 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · +3.3 vs expected

D18 OctH · AZ Alkmaar2–20.9 xPts
W11 OctA · PEC Zwolle1–01.3 xPts
D19 SepA · ADO Den Haag1–11.4 xPts
W12 SepH · NEC Nijmegen3–01.1 xPts
D6 SepA · Telstar2–21.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Willem II	Cambuur
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 17 Oct	6.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	190 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	236 km	158 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Willem II Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Sparta Rotterdam (A) 2–3, 17 Oct

26M. Delanghe(G)

24N. Tjoe-A-On 23M. Dekker 3F. Stam 5H. ter Avest

52T. Vilhena 18Anass Zarrouk

32Vito van Crooij 19U. van Aalst 7J. Slory

9D. Haen

Cambuur Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs AZ Alkmaar (H) 2–2, 18 Oct

1T. Jansen(G)

28M. Costarelli 14B. van Duijl 4I. Baouf 2D. Bouah

8N. Souren 33M. Maertens

11I. Hamache 10Rafik El Arguioui 30J. Çeka

13N. Binder

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Willem II No reported absences

Cambuur No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Willem II+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Cambuur+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Willem II · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 2.50

Cambuur · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Willem II	Cambuur
Fortuna Sittard	L 0–1 H	L 1–3 A
AZ Alkmaar	D 1–1 A	D 2–2 H
Excelsior	L 0–3 H	L 0–4 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 1–4 H	W 3–0 H
Points	1 of 12 · 0.25 per game	4 of 12 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Willem II	Cambuur	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.44
Conceded per game	2.89	2.33
Match goals	3.89	3.78	3.16
Over 1.5	89%	89%
Over 2.5	78%	78%	61%
Over 3.5	67%	67%
Both teams scored	78%	67%	63%
Clean sheets	0%	22%
Failed to score	22%	11%
Games	9	9

	Willem II	Cambuur	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.44
Conceded per game	2.89	2.33
Match goals	3.89	3.78	3.16
Over 1.5	89%	89%
Over 2.5	78%	78%	61%
Over 3.5	67%	67%
Both teams scored	78%	67%	63%
Clean sheets	0%	22%
Failed to score	22%	11%
Games	9	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Willem II	Cambuur	League
Corners
Corners won	3.78	3.78
Corners conceded	6.56	5.78
Match total	10.34	9.56	10.39
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.33	1.78
Opponent cards	1.11	1.78
Match total	2.44	3.56	2.77
Over 3.5	22% 2/9	56% 5/9
Over 4.5	11% 1/9	33% 3/9

	Willem II	Cambuur	League
Corners
Corners won	3.78	4.80
Corners conceded	6.56	5.30
Match total	10.34	10.10	10.39
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	2.00
Opponent cards	1.40	2.40
Match total	2.70	4.40	2.77
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.