ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam

Eredivisie Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 7 · 17:45 Bingoal Stadion, ‘s-Gravenhage

ADO Den Haag 17th · 6 pts · 9 played LLDDW

VS— Compare

Sparta Rotterdam 13th · 9 pts · 9 played DLLDW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It looks too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. ADO Den Haag have 6.3 days of rest, Sparta Rotterdam 6.1 and have to travel.

Rest days6.3 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

ADO Den Haag42%

Draw24%

Sparta Rotterdam34%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.52

ADO Den Haag40%

Draw27%

Sparta Rotterdam33%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26

ADO Den Haag42%

Draw24%

Sparta Rotterdam34%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.52

ADO Den Haag34%

Draw24%

Sparta Rotterdam42%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.71

ADO Den Haag41%

Draw25%

Sparta Rotterdam34%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.50

Over 2.5 62% Both score 64% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (‘s-Gravenhage)

Forecast from 23 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

ADO Den Haag

Sparta Rotterdam

15 L90 StrengthIn forecast 18

15 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

15 AttackIn forecast 32

18 DefenceIn forecast 17

24 Form indexContext 20

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

ADO Den Haag

Attack+16%

Defense risk−10%

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack+18%

Defense risk−19%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

ADO Den Haag

Sparta Rotterdam

1.22 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.78

2.22 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.44

0.93 xGVia Att/Def 2.12

2.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.86

+0.29 Goals minus xGContext -0.34

78% Scored inContext 78%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.22 ShotsContext 14.56

3.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.57

32% On target shareContext 35%

7.25 Shots in the boxContext 10.22

58% Box shareContext 69%

11% ConversionContext 12%

1.88 OffsidesContext 2.67

17.33 Shots allowedContext 17.00

6.78 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.44

4.78 BlocksContext 4.78

4.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.88

67% Save rateContext 65%

48% PossessionIn forecast 45%

411 PassesContext 380

334 Accurate passesContext 308

81% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.65 Team ratingContext 6.70

14.00 FoulsContext 10.11

10.11 Fouls sufferedContext 9.89

1.56 Yellow cardsContext 1.67

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50

0.93 xGVia Att/Def 2.05

2.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.71

+0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.25

70% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.60 ShotsContext 14.80

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.25

31% On target shareContext 34%

7.44 Shots in the boxContext 10.50

58% Box shareContext 70%

10% ConversionContext 12%

1.78 OffsidesContext 2.50

16.30 Shots allowedContext 16.90

6.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

4.60 BlocksContext 4.60

4.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

67% Save rateContext 62%

50% PossessionIn forecast 46%

417 PassesContext 384

338 Accurate passesContext 311

81% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.68 Team ratingContext 6.70

13.70 FoulsContext 10.10

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.30

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

ADO Den Haag LLDDW

Rest6.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 24 · 5 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected

W17 OctH · PSV Eindhoven2–10.4 xPts
D11 OctA · Telstar2–20.9 xPts
D19 SepH · Cambuur1–11.4 xPts
L12 SepA · Twente0–20.4 xPts
L6 SepH · Fortuna Sittard2–31.4 xPts

Sparta Rotterdam DLLDW

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel—403 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 20 · 5 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected

W17 OctH · Willem II3–22.0 xPts
D10 OctA · GO Ahead Eagles3–30.9 xPts
L19 SepH · Heerenveen0–41.6 xPts
L13 SepA · PSV Eindhoven1–40.2 xPts
D4 SepH · PEC Zwolle2–21.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	ADO Den Haag	Sparta Rotterdam
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.3Eredivisie 2026-2027, 1 Nov	6.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	403 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	14.8	14.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

ADO Den Haag Last XI · not confirmed

5-3-2 · vs PSV Eindhoven (H) 2–1, 17 Oct

1K. Nikiéma(G)

18S. Sylla 4M. Waem 3P. Mulder 22L. Wilhelm 5J. Jensen-Abbew

11E. Rottier 25J. Kilo 8J. Žambůrek

9J. Bal 46Y. Eduardo

Sparta Rotterdam Last XI · not confirmed

5-4-1 · vs Willem II (H) 3–2, 17 Oct

1M. Brouwer(G)

5B. Kuipers 4R. Martins Indi 6N. Verschuren 3M. Young 2Lushendry Edward Martes

11I. Babadi 10C. Hatenboer 8J. Toornstra 7Robin van Cruijsen

9Milan Zonneveld

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

ADO Den Haag No reported absences

Sparta Rotterdam No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

ADO Den Haag+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Sparta Rotterdam+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

ADO Den Haag · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 2.25

Sparta Rotterdam · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	ADO Den Haag	Sparta Rotterdam
PSV Eindhoven	W 2–1 H	L 1–4 A
Telstar	D 2–2 A	W 3–1 A
Feyenoord	D 2–2 A	L 0–1 H
GO Ahead Eagles	L 1–3 A	D 3–3 A
Points	5 of 12 · 1.25 per game	4 of 12 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	ADO Den Haag	Sparta Rotterdam	Forecast
Scored per game	1.22	1.78
Conceded per game	2.22	2.44
Match goals	3.44	4.22	3.22
Over 1.5	100%	89%
Over 2.5	67%	89%	62%
Over 3.5	56%	78%
Both teams scored	78%	78%	64%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	22%	22%
Games	9	9

	ADO Den Haag	Sparta Rotterdam	Forecast
Scored per game	1.22	1.80
Conceded per game	2.22	2.50
Match goals	3.44	4.30	3.22
Over 1.5	100%	90%
Over 2.5	67%	90%	62%
Over 3.5	56%	80%
Both teams scored	78%	80%	64%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	22%	20%
Games	9	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	ADO Den Haag	Sparta Rotterdam	League
Corners
Corners won	4.14	5.67
Corners conceded	6.14	6.89
Match total	10.28	12.56	10.39
Over 8.5	57% 4/7	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	1.67	1.67
Opponent cards	1.44	1.11
Match total	3.11	2.78	2.77
Over 3.5	44% 4/9	22% 2/9
Over 4.5	11% 1/9	11% 1/9

	ADO Den Haag	Sparta Rotterdam	League
Corners
Corners won	4.25	5.60
Corners conceded	5.63	6.40
Match total	9.88	12.00	10.39
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.90
Opponent cards	1.70	1.00
Match total	3.30	2.90	2.77
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.