Twente vs Ajax – 8 Nov 2026

Eredivisie Gameweek 12 Sun, Nov 8 · 13:30 De Grolsch Veste, Enschede

Twente 5th · 17 pts · 9 played WWWDL

VS— Compare

Ajax 4th · 18 pts · 9 played WWDDW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Twente are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Twente have 7 days of rest, Ajax 7.7 and have to travel 138 km.

Away travel138 kmRest days7 · 7.7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Twente44%

Draw24%

Ajax32%

Expected goals 1.81 – 1.53

Twente42%

Draw27%

Ajax31%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.23

Twente44%

Draw24%

Ajax32%

Expected goals 1.81 – 1.53

Twente36%

Draw24%

Ajax40%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.71

Twente43%

Draw25%

Ajax31%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.38

Over 2.5 65% Both score 66% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 1 day ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Enschede)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Streaks

Team strength

Twente

Ajax

48 L90 StrengthIn forecast 51

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 53

41 AttackIn forecast 66

49 DefenceIn forecast 55

58 Form indexContext 63

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Twente

Attack−19%

Defense risk+29%

Ajax

Attack−20%

Defense risk+20%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Twente

Ajax

1.89 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00

1.11 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

1.63 xGVia Att/Def 2.06

0.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

+0.26 Goals minus xGContext +0.94

89% Scored inContext 100%

22% Clean sheetsContext 22%

20.56 ShotsContext 22.78

7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.11

34% On target shareContext 36%

13.44 Shots in the boxContext 16.22

65% Box shareContext 71%

9% ConversionContext 13%

1.57 OffsidesContext 2.13

11.11 Shots allowedContext 10.00

3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.57 BlocksContext 2.67

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13

69% Save rateContext 74%

58% PossessionIn forecast 62%

535 PassesContext 581

462 Accurate passesContext 516

86% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.97 Team ratingContext 7.03

11.33 FoulsContext 9.56

8.44 Fouls sufferedContext 9.89

0.78 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.90

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.63 xGVia Att/Def 2.03

0.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96

+0.27 Goals minus xGContext +0.87

90% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

20.56 ShotsContext 21.70

7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.80

34% On target shareContext 36%

13.44 Shots in the boxContext 15.40

65% Box shareContext 71%

9% ConversionContext 13%

1.57 OffsidesContext 2.33

11.11 Shots allowedContext 9.50

3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

4.57 BlocksContext 2.60

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

69% Save rateContext 74%

58% PossessionIn forecast 62%

535 PassesContext 576

462 Accurate passesContext 509

86% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.97 Team ratingContext 7.05

11.33 FoulsContext 9.80

8.44 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Twente WWWDL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km642 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 58 · 10 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected

L18 OctH · Utrecht1–22.1 xPts
D10 OctA · Fortuna Sittard1–11.9 xPts
W20 SepH · PSV Eindhoven3–21.0 xPts
W12 SepH · ADO Den Haag2–02.4 xPts
W9 SepH · Telstar1–02.2 xPts

Ajax WWDDW

Rest7.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel138 km115 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 63 · 11 pts vs 9.5 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected

W18 OctA · Groningen5–21.4 xPts
D10 OctH · NEC Nijmegen1–12.1 xPts
D19 SepH · Excelsior2–22.1 xPts
W15 SepH · Willem II5–12.5 xPts
W12 SepA · Fortuna Sittard5–11.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Twente	Ajax
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 1 Nov	7.7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	138 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	642 km	115 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	13.9	14

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Twente Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Utrecht (H) 1–2, 18 Oct

16J. Drommel(G)

29A. Adelgaard 4Ruud Nijstad 3R. Pröpper 28B. van Rooij

8D. Weidmann 6R. Zerrouki

27S. Ørjasæter 14K. Hlynsson 11D. Rots

9W. Weghorst

Ajax Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Groningen (A) 5–2, 18 Oct

1M. ter Stegen(G)

5O. Wijndal 36D. Janse 30A. Bouwman 2Lucas Rosa

24J. Mokio 4S. Amrabat 18D. Klaassen

10O. Gloukh 38Marcos Leonardo 8J. Brandt

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Twente No reported absences

Ajax No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Twente+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Ajax+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Twente · Home 2.40points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 4-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Ajax · Away 3.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 4-0-0
Scored: 4.00
Conceded: 0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

Opponent	Twente	Ajax
Fortuna Sittard	D 1–1 A	W 5–1 A
PSV Eindhoven	W 3–2 H	L 1–3 H
Telstar	W 1–0 H	W 4–0 A
Groningen	D 2–2 A	W 5–2 A
PEC Zwolle	W 3–1 H	W 2–0 A
Heerenveen	L 0–1 A	D 2–2 H
Points	11 of 18 · 1.83 per game	13 of 18 · 2.17 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

2 Twente wins1 draws2 Ajax wins

Goals per game1.80 – 1.80 Over 2.580% Both scored80% Clean sheets0% · 20%

4 Apr 2026Ajax1–2Twente
26 Oct 2025Twente2–3Ajax
18 May 2025Ajax2–0Twente
10 Nov 2024Twente2–2Ajax
17 Sep 2023Twente3–1Ajax

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Twente	Ajax	Forecast
Scored per game	1.89	3.00
Conceded per game	1.11	1.33
Match goals	3.00	4.33	3.33
Over 1.5	78%	100%
Over 2.5	56%	78%	65%
Over 3.5	44%	78%
Both teams scored	67%	78%	66%
Clean sheets	22%	22%
Failed to score	11%	0%
Games	9	9

	Twente	Ajax	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	2.70
Conceded per game	1.20	1.20
Match goals	3.10	3.90	3.33
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	65%
Over 3.5	50%	70%
Both teams scored	70%	70%	66%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Twente	Ajax	League
Corners
Corners won	7.22	6.88
Corners conceded	3.89	3.00
Match total	11.11	9.88	10.39
Over 8.5	100% 9/9	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	0.78	2.00
Opponent cards	1.56	1.78
Match total	2.34	3.78	2.77
Over 3.5	22% 2/9	56% 5/9
Over 4.5	0% 0/9	33% 3/9

	Twente	Ajax	League
Corners
Corners won	7.22	6.88
Corners conceded	3.89	3.00
Match total	11.11	9.88	10.39
Over 8.5	100% 9/9	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.90
Opponent cards	1.60	2.00
Match total	2.60	3.90	2.77
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.