Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor

Süper Lig Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 8 · 15:30 GAIN Park Stadium, Alanya

Alanyaspor 9th · 12 pts · 8 played WDWDL

VS— Compare

Trabzonspor 4th · 16 pts · 8 played WLWWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Trabzonspor are slight favourites.

Trabzonspor are the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Trabzonspor. Alanyaspor have 5.9 days of rest, Trabzonspor 7.1 and have to travel 833 km.

Away travel833 kmRest days5.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2

Alanyaspor28%

Draw25%

Trabzonspor48%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.75

Alanyaspor30%

Draw27%

Trabzonspor43%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.48

Alanyaspor28%

Draw25%

Trabzonspor48%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.75

Alanyaspor21%

Draw23%

Trabzonspor56%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.97

Alanyaspor28%

Draw25%

Trabzonspor47%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.73

Over 2.5 59% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 1 day ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Alanya)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Trend Trabzonspor 1.8 Goals scored per match Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Alanyaspor

Trabzonspor

24 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

24 Current StrengthIn forecast 46

18 AttackIn forecast 54

24 DefenceIn forecast 48

49 Form indexContext 78

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alanyaspor

Attack−11%

Defense risk+23%

Trabzonspor

Attack+8%

Defense risk−13%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Alanyaspor

Trabzonspor

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.25

1.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.63

0.96 xGVia Att/Def 1.58

1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46

+0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.67

75% Scored inContext 88%

38% Clean sheetsContext 50%

10.88 ShotsContext 13.25

3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.63

30% On target shareContext 50%

6.75 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

61% Box shareContext 70%

9% ConversionContext 17%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.57

15.00 Shots allowedContext 13.50

4.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

4.38 BlocksContext 2.86

3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.38

80% Save rateContext 88%

42% PossessionIn forecast 53%

334 PassesContext 430

270 Accurate passesContext 365

81% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.93 Team ratingContext 7.12

12.13 FoulsContext 10.38

13.38 Fouls sufferedContext 16.13

1.38 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.04 xGVia Att/Def 1.58

1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.22

80% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.00 ShotsContext 13.25

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.63

35% On target shareContext 50%

6.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

58% Box shareContext 70%

11% ConversionContext 17%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.57

14.20 Shots allowedContext 13.50

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

4.10 BlocksContext 3.22

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.38

78% Save rateContext 88%

44% PossessionIn forecast 52%

354 PassesContext 430

291 Accurate passesContext 365

82% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.92 Team ratingContext 7.12

12.30 FoulsContext 10.00

13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 16.30

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.30

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alanyaspor WDWDL

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km765 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 49 · 8 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected

L17 OctA · Fenerbahce0–30.5 xPts
D10 OctH · Erzurumspor FK0–01.6 xPts
W19 SepA · Çorum FK2–11.0 xPts
D12 SepH · Goztepe2–21.6 xPts
W7 SepA · Rizespor1–01.0 xPts

Trabzonspor WLWWW

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel833 km133 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 78 · 12 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · +4.9 vs expected

W19 OctH · Besiktas2–01.3 xPts
W10 OctA · Samsunspor3–01.6 xPts
W19 SepH · Galatasaray4–00.9 xPts
L12 SepA · Konyaspor0–11.5 xPts
W6 SepH · Genclerbirligi5–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Alanyaspor	Trabzonspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 2 Nov	7.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	833 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	765 km	133 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	13.9	14

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alanyaspor Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-3 · vs Fenerbahce (A) 0–3, 17 Oct

48Paulo Victor(G)

20F. Aksoy 5F. Aliti 3Nuno Lima

11Ruan 55B. Gezek 42G. Makouta 94F. Hadërgjonaj

7Ibrahim Kaya 17A. Usluoğlu 16U. Hwang

Trabzonspor Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Besiktas (H) 2–0, 19 Oct

24A. Onana(G)

55Sidny Lopes Cabral 15S. Savić 27Chibuike Nwaiwu 20Wagner Pina

6Fabinho 11O. Tufan

58D. Şimşir 7E. Muçi 10Mohamed Salah

9F. Gluda Djú

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Alanyaspor No reported absences

Trabzonspor No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Alanyaspor+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Trabzonspor+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Alanyaspor · Home 1.67points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.67

Trabzonspor · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Alanyaspor	Trabzonspor
Besiktas	W 1–0 H	W 2–0 H
Points	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Alanyaspor wins2 draws2 Trabzonspor wins

Goals per game1.67 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored83% Clean sheets0% · 17%

11 Apr 2026Alanyaspor1–1Trabzonspor
8 Nov 2025Trabzonspor1–1Alanyaspor
27 Apr 2025Trabzonspor4–3Alanyaspor
30 Nov 2024Alanyaspor2–1Trabzonspor
4 Mar 2024Alanyaspor3–1Trabzonspor
23 Oct 2023Trabzonspor1–0Alanyaspor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Alanyaspor	Trabzonspor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.25
Conceded per game	1.13	0.63
Match goals	2.13	2.88	3.05
Over 1.5	63%	88%
Over 2.5	50%	63%	59%
Over 3.5	13%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	38%	61%
Clean sheets	38%	50%
Failed to score	25%	13%
Games	8	8

	Alanyaspor	Trabzonspor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.80
Conceded per game	1.20	1.00
Match goals	2.40	2.80	3.05
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	59%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	30%	61%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Alanyaspor	Trabzonspor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.71	5.13
Corners conceded	4.14	3.25
Match total	8.85	8.38	9.12
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	13% 1/8
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	13% 1/8
Cards
Cards	1.38	2.13
Opponent cards	2.13	2.88
Match total	3.51	5.01	4.04
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	38% 3/8	63% 5/8

	Alanyaspor	Trabzonspor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.71	5.20
Corners conceded	4.14	4.00
Match total	8.85	9.20	9.12
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	2.30
Opponent cards	2.00	2.90
Match total	3.30	5.20	4.04
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.