Genclerbirligi vs Alanyaspor

Süper Lig Gameweek 10 Mon, Nov 2 · 17:00 Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankara

Genclerbirligi 15th · 8 pts · 8 played LLLDL

VS— Compare

Alanyaspor 9th · 12 pts · 8 played WDWDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It looks too close to call.

Alanyaspor are the stronger side on L90 Strength (24 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Genclerbirligi. Genclerbirligi have 8.2 days of rest, Alanyaspor 10 and have to travel 383 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel383 kmRest days8.2 · 10Matches / 14d1 · 1

Genclerbirligi37%

Draw26%

Alanyaspor37%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.42

Genclerbirligi35%

Draw27%

Alanyaspor38%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.36

Genclerbirligi37%

Draw26%

Alanyaspor37%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.42

Genclerbirligi30%

Draw26%

Alanyaspor44%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.59

Genclerbirligi37%

Draw26%

Alanyaspor37%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.46

Over 2.5 54% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 5 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ankara)

8°COvercast

Precipitation 9%
Wind 3 km/h
Humidity 76%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Genclerbirligi

Alanyaspor

15 L90 StrengthIn forecast 24

15 Current StrengthIn forecast 24

13 AttackIn forecast 18

16 DefenceIn forecast 24

7 Form indexContext 49

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Genclerbirligi

Attack+9%

Defense risk−13%

Alanyaspor

Attack+23%

Defense risk−21%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Genclerbirligi

Alanyaspor

0.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.13

0.95 xGVia Att/Def 0.96

1.83 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.04

63% Scored inContext 75%

13% Clean sheetsContext 38%

11.88 ShotsContext 10.88

4.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.25

31% On target shareContext 30%

7.25 Shots in the boxContext 6.75

58% Box shareContext 61%

7% ConversionContext 9%

2.40 OffsidesContext 2.14

17.25 Shots allowedContext 15.00

6.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.88

4.14 BlocksContext 4.38

5.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.88

75% Save rateContext 80%

43% PossessionIn forecast 42%

327 PassesContext 334

261 Accurate passesContext 270

80% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.93

11.63 FoulsContext 12.13

11.38 Fouls sufferedContext 13.38

1.75 Yellow cardsContext 1.38

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.04

1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60

+0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.16

70% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.10 ShotsContext 11.00

4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

35% On target shareContext 35%

7.30 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

58% Box shareContext 58%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.17 OffsidesContext 2.13

15.80 Shots allowedContext 14.20

6.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.78 BlocksContext 4.10

4.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90

76% Save rateContext 78%

44% PossessionIn forecast 44%

327 PassesContext 354

260 Accurate passesContext 291

79% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.92

11.50 FoulsContext 12.30

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Genclerbirligi LLLDL

Rest8.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km460 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 7 · 1 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -3.8 vs expected

L17 OctH · Galatasaray0–10.6 xPts
D10 OctH · Amed2–21.0 xPts
L19 SepA · Istanbul Basaksehir0–41.0 xPts
L13 SepH · Kasimpasa1–21.4 xPts
L6 SepA · Trabzonspor0–50.9 xPts

Alanyaspor WDWDL

Rest10 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel383 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 49 · 8 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected

L17 OctA · Fenerbahce0–30.5 xPts
D10 OctH · Erzurumspor FK0–01.6 xPts
W19 SepA · Çorum FK2–11.0 xPts
D12 SepH · Goztepe2–21.6 xPts
W7 SepA · Rizespor1–01.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Genclerbirligi	Alanyaspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.2Süper Lig 2026-2027, 25 Oct	10Süper Lig 2026-2027, 23 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	383 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	460 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Genclerbirligi Last XI · not confirmed

4-1-4-1 · vs Galatasaray (H) 0–1, 17 Oct

70İ. Eğribayat(G)

2T. da Silva 6D. Goutas 90M. Baltacı 88F. Üzüm

42Ousmane Diabate

7Tiago Gouveia 10F. Tongya 48S. Uçan 83R. Luis

9Pedro Mendes

Alanyaspor Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-3 · vs Fenerbahce (A) 0–3, 17 Oct

48Paulo Victor(G)

20F. Aksoy 5F. Aliti 3Nuno Lima

11Ruan 55B. Gezek 42G. Makouta 94F. Hadërgjonaj

7Ibrahim Kaya 17A. Usluoğlu 16U. Hwang

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Genclerbirligi No reported absences

Alanyaspor No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Genclerbirligi+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Alanyaspor+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Genclerbirligi · Home 1.00points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-2
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 1.40

Alanyaspor · Away 1.40points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Genclerbirligi	Alanyaspor
Erzurumspor FK	D 1–1 H	D 0–0 H
Goztepe	W 1–0 A	D 2–2 H
Fenerbahce	W 2–1 H	L 0–3 A
Points	7 of 9 · 2.33 per game	2 of 9 · 0.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Genclerbirligi wins2 draws0 Alanyaspor wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 50%

9 Mar 2026Alanyaspor0–0Genclerbirligi
4 Oct 2025Genclerbirligi2–2Alanyaspor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Genclerbirligi	Alanyaspor	Forecast
Scored per game	0.88	1.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.13
Match goals	2.88	2.13	2.85
Over 1.5	75%	63%
Over 2.5	63%	50%	54%
Over 3.5	38%	13%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	58%
Clean sheets	13%	38%
Failed to score	38%	25%
Games	8	8

	Genclerbirligi	Alanyaspor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.20
Conceded per game	1.80	1.20
Match goals	3.10	2.40	2.85
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	54%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	58%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Genclerbirligi	Alanyaspor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.63	4.71
Corners conceded	6.50	4.14
Match total	11.13	8.85	9.12
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	1.75	1.38
Opponent cards	2.13	2.13
Match total	3.88	3.51	4.04
Over 3.5	50% 4/8	63% 5/8
Over 4.5	38% 3/8	38% 3/8

	Genclerbirligi	Alanyaspor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	4.71
Corners conceded	6.10	4.14
Match total	10.60	8.85	9.12
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.30
Opponent cards	2.80	2.00
Match total	4.70	3.30	4.04
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.