Besiktas vs Genclerbirligi

Süper Lig Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 8 · 18:00 Tüpraş Stadyumu, İstanbul

Besiktas 5th · 15 pts · 8 played WWLWL

VS— Compare

Genclerbirligi 15th · 8 pts · 8 played LLLDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Besiktas are clear favourites.

Besiktas are the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Besiktas. Besiktas have 2.9 days of rest, Genclerbirligi 6 and have to travel 352 km.

Away travel352 kmRest days2.9 · 6Matches / 14d3 · 1

Besiktas80%

Draw13%

Genclerbirligi7%

Expected goals 2.99 – 0.87

Besiktas71%

Draw19%

Genclerbirligi11%

Expected goals 2.27 – 0.79

Besiktas80%

Draw13%

Genclerbirligi7%

Expected goals 2.99 – 0.87

Besiktas73%

Draw16%

Genclerbirligi11%

Expected goals 2.66 – 0.97

Besiktas78%

Draw14%

Genclerbirligi8%

Expected goals 2.88 – 0.86

Over 2.5 74% Both score 55% Likeliest score 2–0

EloLambda forecast, updated 17 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Besiktas

Genclerbirligi

52 L90 StrengthIn forecast 15

50 Current StrengthIn forecast 15

60 AttackIn forecast 13

48 DefenceIn forecast 16

62 Form indexContext 7

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Besiktas

Attack+23%

Defense risk−20%

Genclerbirligi

Attack−18%

Defense risk+46%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Besiktas

Genclerbirligi

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.88

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.70 xGVia Att/Def 0.95

1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.83

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

75% Scored inContext 63%

25% Clean sheetsContext 13%

16.57 ShotsContext 11.88

6.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.14

37% On target shareContext 31%

9.29 Shots in the boxContext 7.25

56% Box shareContext 58%

11% ConversionContext 7%

3.43 OffsidesContext 2.40

9.57 Shots allowedContext 17.25

4.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.88

3.40 BlocksContext 4.14

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.13

68% Save rateContext 75%

61% PossessionIn forecast 43%

488 PassesContext 327

422 Accurate passesContext 261

87% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.81

13.71 FoulsContext 11.63

15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.38

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.75

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

2.06 xGVia Att/Def 1.13

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68

+0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.17

70% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.75 ShotsContext 12.10

6.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67

37% On target shareContext 35%

10.88 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

64% Box shareContext 58%

14% ConversionContext 11%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.17

11.25 Shots allowedContext 15.80

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.20

3.38 BlocksContext 3.78

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.70

64% Save rateContext 76%

59% PossessionIn forecast 44%

481 PassesContext 327

410 Accurate passesContext 260

85% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.84

11.44 FoulsContext 11.50

15.22 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Besiktas WLWWL

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km5,821 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

Form 62 · 9 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected

L19 OctA · Trabzonspor0–21.5 xPts
W15 OctA · 1899 Hoffenheim3–21.3 xPts
W11 OctH · Kocaelispor2–12.2 xPts
L20 SepA · Amed2–31.4 xPts
W17 SepH · Marseille4–11.6 xPts

Genclerbirligi LLLDL

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel352 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 7 · 1 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -3.8 vs expected

L17 OctH · Galatasaray0–10.6 xPts
D10 OctH · Amed2–21.0 xPts
L19 SepA · Istanbul Basaksehir0–41.0 xPts
L13 SepH · Kasimpasa1–21.4 xPts
L6 SepA · Trabzonspor0–50.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Besiktas	Genclerbirligi
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 33	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 5 Nov	6Süper Lig 2026-2027, 2 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	352 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	5,821 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 6	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	13.8	12.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Besiktas Last XI · not confirmed

4-1-4-1 · vs Trabzonspor (A) 0–2, 19 Oct

1A. Nübel(G)

33R. Yılmaz 53E. Topçu 12E. Agbadou 62A. Murillo

6S. Özcan

19L. Trossard 21F. Miretti 15Junior Olaitan 18V. Černý

28D. Vlahović

Genclerbirligi Last XI · not confirmed

4-1-4-1 · vs Galatasaray (H) 0–1, 17 Oct

70İ. Eğribayat(G)

2T. da Silva 6D. Goutas 90M. Baltacı 88F. Üzüm

42Ousmane Diabate

7Tiago Gouveia 10F. Tongya 48S. Uçan 83R. Luis

9Pedro Mendes

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Besiktas No reported absences

Genclerbirligi No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Besiktas+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Genclerbirligi+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Besiktas · Home 3.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 4-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 0.75

Genclerbirligi · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 0.33
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Besiktas	Genclerbirligi
Trabzonspor	L 0–2 A	L 0–5 A
Amed	L 2–3 A	D 2–2 H
Erzurumspor FK	W 3–0 H	D 1–1 H
Fenerbahce	W 2–1 A	W 2–1 H
Points	6 of 12 · 1.50 per game	5 of 12 · 1.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Besiktas wins0 draws1 Genclerbirligi wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

15 Mar 2026Genclerbirligi0–2Besiktas
18 Oct 2025Besiktas1–2Genclerbirligi

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Besiktas	Genclerbirligi	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.88
Conceded per game	1.25	2.00
Match goals	3.25	2.88	3.85
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	63%	63%	74%
Over 3.5	25%	38%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	25%	13%
Failed to score	25%	38%
Games	8	8

	Besiktas	Genclerbirligi	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	1.30
Conceded per game	1.40	1.80
Match goals	3.60	3.10	3.85
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	70%	74%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Besiktas	Genclerbirligi	League
Corners
Corners won	6.71	4.63
Corners conceded	4.14	6.50
Match total	10.85	11.13	9.12
Over 8.5	86% 6/7	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	71% 5/7	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	50% 4/8
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.75
Opponent cards	2.88	2.13
Match total	5.38	3.88	4.04
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	50% 4/8
Over 4.5	63% 5/8	38% 3/8

	Besiktas	Genclerbirligi	League
Corners
Corners won	5.78	4.50
Corners conceded	4.44	6.10
Match total	10.22	10.60	9.12
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.90
Opponent cards	2.60	2.80
Match total	4.80	4.70	4.04
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.