Rennes
Attack−16%
Defense risk+6%
Our take
Rennes are slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Rennes. Rennes have 2.8 days of rest, Lille 4.8 and have to travel 448 km.
Away travel448 kmRest days2.8 · 4.8Matches / 14d3 · 3
Rennes46%
Draw25%
Lille29%
Rennes43%
Draw27%
Lille30%
Rennes46%
Draw25%
Lille29%
Rennes38%
Draw25%
Lille37%
Rennes45%
Draw25%
Lille30%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rennes)
Forecast from 24 Oct
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Rennes and Lille. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Rennes
+0.21
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.12xG against1.91
-
Trend
Rennes
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Lille
4
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Rennes
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Rennes
+0.21
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.12xG against1.91
-
Trend
Rennes
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Rennes
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
RennesLille
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
63
AttackIn forecast
42
39
DefenceIn forecast
60
42
Form indexContext
39
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLille
Attack−8%
Defense risk+20%
Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
RennesLille
2.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.71
2.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
2.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
86%
Scored inContext
100%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
57%
16.29
ShotsContext
12.00
6.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.57
39%
On target shareContext
46%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.14
65%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
1.75
OffsidesContext
3.00
15.29
Shots allowedContext
15.00
5.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.57
4.71
BlocksContext
3.50
3.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
63%
Save rateContext
80%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
472
PassesContext
480
398
Accurate passesContext
417
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.99
13.57
FoulsContext
11.57
11.43
Fouls sufferedContext
14.43
2.43
Yellow cardsContext
1.29
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
2.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
18.60
ShotsContext
10.50
6.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.89
34%
On target shareContext
42%
12.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
66%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.43
OffsidesContext
3.11
14.70
Shots allowedContext
14.80
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.89
BlocksContext
4.00
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
68%
Save rateContext
69%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
476
PassesContext
480
403
Accurate passesContext
417
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.40
FoulsContext
10.90
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
14.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rennes
DLWWL
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,694 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Form 42 · 7 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
Lille
WLWLD
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel448 km5,568 km in 14d
Schedule load31%Moderate
Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rennes |
Lille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 28 | Moderate · 31 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 5 Nov | 4.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 3 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 448 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,694 km | 5,568 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 7 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 13.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rennes
Last XI · not confirmed
30B. Samba(G)
95P. Frankowski
24A. Rouault
4C. Cresswell
14B. Reynolds
28A. Thomasson
6D. Cissé
17S. Szymański
90I. Soumaré
9E. Lepaul
10L. Blas
Lille
Last XI · not confirmed
12O. Gill(G)
15R. Perraud
23T. Nianzou
3N. Ngoy
38Maxima Goffi
17N. Mukau
21B. André
7D. Bakwa
10H. Haraldsson
8E. Mbappé
9O. Giroud
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rennes
No reported absences
Lille
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Rennes+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lille+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Rennes · Home
2.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.25
Lille · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Rennes | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Angers | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
1 Rennes wins4 draws5 Lille wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.70
Over 2.560%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets10% · 20%
- 15 Mar 2026Rennes1–2Lille
- 3 Jan 2026Lille0–2Rennes
- 16 Feb 2025Rennes0–2Lille
- 24 Nov 2024Lille1–0Rennes
- 10 Mar 2024Lille2–2Rennes
- 16 Sep 2023Rennes2–2Lille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rennes | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.14 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.71 | |
| Match goals | 4.14 | 2.14 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 29% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 71% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 43% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 57% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Rennes | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.50 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rennes | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.83 | 3.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 12.50 | 8.66 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 1.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 4.86 | 3.00 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 6/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Rennes | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.56 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 12.67 | 8.50 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.40 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Rennes7 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
4
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Lille7 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 18 · conceded 18
4
5
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
