LE Havre
Attack+2%
Defense risk−15%
Our take
It looks too close to call.
Lorient are the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for LE Havre. LE Havre have 8.9 days of rest, Lorient 7.9 and have to travel 321 km.
Away travel321 kmRest days8.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
LE Havre39%
Draw27%
Lorient34%
LE Havre36%
Draw27%
Lorient37%
LE Havre39%
Draw27%
Lorient34%
LE Havre32%
Draw27%
Lorient41%
LE Havre39%
Draw27%
Lorient34%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 1 day ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Le Havre)
Forecast from 24 Oct
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for LE Havre and Lorient. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Lorient
4
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
LE Havre
−0.64
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.95xG against1.59
-
Insight
Lorient
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
LE Havre
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Lorient
6
Scoring in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row -
Streak
LE Havre
3
Losses in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row
Defence
-
Insight
Lorient
4
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Lorient
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
LE Havre
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
LE Havre
−0.64
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.95xG against1.59
Team strength
LE HavreLorient
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
20
AttackIn forecast
28
22
DefenceIn forecast
45
6
Form indexContext
69
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLorient
Attack+13%
Defense risk−19%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
LE HavreLorient
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.86
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
-0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
57%
Scored inContext
86%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
57%
15.57
ShotsContext
9.86
4.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.43
30%
On target shareContext
35%
10.29
Shots in the boxContext
6.71
66%
Box shareContext
70%
5%
ConversionContext
10%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.25
12.86
Shots allowedContext
13.86
4.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.71
3.67
BlocksContext
4.71
3.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
70%
Save rateContext
83%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
408
PassesContext
482
340
Accurate passesContext
408
83%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.62
Team ratingContext
6.86
14.57
FoulsContext
9.29
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
15.14
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
1.14
0.29
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.70
ShotsContext
9.80
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
32%
On target shareContext
35%
9.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
67%
Box shareContext
65%
6%
ConversionContext
13%
2.10
OffsidesContext
1.43
13.10
Shots allowedContext
13.60
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.78
BlocksContext
4.78
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
75%
Save rateContext
81%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
381
PassesContext
458
312
Accurate passesContext
390
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.83
14.70
FoulsContext
9.10
14.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
LE Havre
LDLLL
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,597 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 6 · 1 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -5.1 vs expected
Lorient
WDLWW
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel321 km427 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 69 · 10 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| LE Havre |
Lorient |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 30 Oct | 7.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 31 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 321 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,597 km | 427 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12.1 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
LE Havre
Last XI · not confirmed
93G. Gallon(G)
5A. Touba
6J. Mwanga
20D. Ouziad
7M. Richardson
26S. Ebonog
14R. Ndiaye
25M. Samatta
9J. Maja
30S. Nakamura
Lorient
Last XI · not confirmed
38Y. Mvogo(G)
95S. Touré
3M. Talbi
32N. Adjei
43Arsène Kouassi
62A. Avom
8Noah Cadiou
20D. Sylla
33Gabin Bernardeau
17J. Makengo
18I. Baldé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences LE Havre
No reported absences
Lorient
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- LE Havre+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lorient+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
LE Havre · Home
0.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Lorient · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | LE Havre | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | L 2–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Monaco | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 LE Havre wins2 draws0 Lorient wins
Goals per game2.25 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 17 May 2026Lorient0–2LE Havre
- 21 Sep 2025LE Havre1–1Lorient
- 28 Jan 2024Lorient3–3LE Havre
- 3 Sep 2023LE Havre3–0Lorient
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| LE Havre | Lorient | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 0.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 1.86 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 43% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 43% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 43% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 57% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| LE Havre | Lorient | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.30 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| LE Havre | Lorient | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.71 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.86 | 5.17 | |
| Match total | 10.57 | 8.17 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 7/7 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 86% 6/7 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 1.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.57 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 3.43 | 3.43 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| LE Havre | Lorient | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 3.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 10.78 | 8.78 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.30 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
LE Havre7 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
3
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Lorient7 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
