Nice
Attack0%
Defense risk+24%
Our take
Rennes are slight favourites.
Rennes are the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nice. Nice have 7.9 days of rest, Rennes 6 and have to travel 847 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel847 kmRest days7.9 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 3
Nice31%
Draw24%
Rennes45%
Nice28%
Draw27%
Rennes45%
Nice31%
Draw24%
Rennes45%
Nice24%
Draw22%
Rennes54%
Nice31%
Draw24%
Rennes45%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 66%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 7 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nice)
18°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 19%
- Wind 1 km/h
- Humidity 80%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Nice and Rennes. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Rennes
+0.21
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.12xG against1.91
-
Trend
Rennes
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Rennes
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Rennes
+0.21
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.12xG against1.91
-
Trend
Rennes
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Rennes
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
NiceRennes
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
26
AttackIn forecast
63
35
DefenceIn forecast
39
44
Form indexContext
42
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRennes
Attack+6%
Defense risk−15%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
NiceRennes
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.14
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
2.22
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.39
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
57%
Scored inContext
86%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
11.71
ShotsContext
16.29
3.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.29
32%
On target shareContext
39%
7.57
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
65%
Box shareContext
65%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.75
11.86
Shots allowedContext
15.29
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.86
3.00
BlocksContext
4.71
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.71
65%
Save rateContext
63%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
546
PassesContext
472
478
Accurate passesContext
398
88%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.78
9.29
FoulsContext
13.57
8.14
Fouls sufferedContext
11.43
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
2.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
2.12
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.91
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.00
ShotsContext
18.60
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.30
30%
On target shareContext
34%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
12.60
68%
Box shareContext
66%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
2.70
OffsidesContext
2.43
12.60
Shots allowedContext
14.70
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
3.60
BlocksContext
4.89
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.22
67%
Save rateContext
68%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
508
PassesContext
476
439
Accurate passesContext
403
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.81
9.40
FoulsContext
12.40
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nice
DLWWL
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,675 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 44 · 7 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
Rennes
DLWWL
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel847 km2,196 km in 14d
Schedule load32%Moderate
Form 42 · 7 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nice |
Rennes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Moderate · 32 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 23 Oct | 6Ligue 1 2026-2027, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 847 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,675 km | 2,196 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nice
Last XI · not confirmed
23Y. Diouf(G)
35X. Mandza Tsiendi
55Y. Ndayishimiye
5M. Mohamed Ahmed
27N. Nkounkou
6H. Boudaoui
28A. Witsel
92J. Clauss
9M. Amoura
7G. Hein
11S. Wahi
Rennes
Last XI · not confirmed
30B. Samba(G)
95P. Frankowski
24A. Rouault
4C. Cresswell
14B. Reynolds
28A. Thomasson
6D. Cissé
17S. Szymański
90I. Soumaré
9E. Lepaul
10L. Blas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nice
No reported absences
Rennes
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Nice+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rennes+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Nice · Home
2.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 0.75
Rennes · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Nice | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon | L 1–2 A | L 0–4 A |
| Auxerre | L 0–1 A | W 4–1 H |
| Le Mans | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Paris FC | L 0–3 A | L 3–4 A |
| Points | 1 of 12 · 0.25 per game | 6 of 12 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
5 Nice wins1 draws4 Rennes wins
Goals per game1.30 – 1.60
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets10% · 30%
- 8 Mar 2026Nice0–4Rennes
- 26 Oct 2025Rennes1–2Nice
- 10 May 2025Rennes2–0Nice
- 3 Jan 2025Nice3–2Rennes
- 13 Jan 2024Rennes2–0Nice
- 5 Nov 2023Nice2–0Rennes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nice | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 2.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 4.14 | 3.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 86% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 71% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 71% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Nice | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nice | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.71 | 6.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 8.71 | 12.50 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 2.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.86 | 2.43 | |
| Match total | 2.72 | 4.86 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Nice | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 7.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 12.67 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 4.50 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Nice7 games · scored 6 · conceded 9
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Rennes7 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
4
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 18 · conceded 18
4
5
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
