Arsenal
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Arsenal
1st · 50 pts · 22 played
WWWDD
2–3Full time
Manchester United
6th · 35 pts · 22 played
WDDDW
Arsenal73.1%fair odds 1.37
Draw16.3%fair odds 6.13
Manchester United10.6%fair odds 9.47
Expected goals2.60 – 0.91total 3.51
Likeliest score2–010.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Manchester United
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Arsenal ↓ · Manchester United → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Arsenal goals, columns Manchester United goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.1%9.94
- 2–19.2%10.87
- 3–08.7%11.47
- 3–18.0%12.54
- 1–17.5%13.41
- 1–07.4%13.57
- 4–05.7%17.65
- 4–15.2%19.30
- 2–24.2%23.77
- 3–23.6%27.44
Winning margin
31.3%
Arsenal by 3+
fair 3.20
20.8%
Arsenal by 2
fair 4.80
21.0%
Arsenal by 1
fair 4.75
16.3%
Draw
fair 6.13
7.2%
Manchester United by 1
fair 13.98
2.6%
Manchester United by 2
fair 38.81
0.8%
Manchester United by 3+
fair 120.38
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
10%1
19%2
22%3
19%4
28%5+
Arsenal goals
7%0
19%1
25%2
22%3
26%4+
Manchester United goals
40%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 73.1% | 71.0% | +2.2 pp |
| Draw | 16.3% | 17.9% | -1.6 pp |
| Manchester United win | 10.6% | 11.1% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 68.2% | 62.1% | +6.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.8% | 51.8% | +4.0 pp |
| Expected goals Arsenal | 2.60 | 2.37 | +0.23 |
| Expected goals Manchester United | 0.91 | 0.84 | +0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Arsenal win73.1%1.37
- Draw16.3%6.13
- Manchester United win10.6%9.47
- Double chance Arsenal or draw89.4%1.12
- Double chance Arsenal or Manchester United83.7%1.19
- Double chance Manchester United or draw26.9%3.72
- Draw no bet Arsenal87.4%1.14
- Draw no bet Manchester United12.6%7.92
Goals
- Over 0.596.6%1.03
- Over 1.586.9%1.15
- Over 2.568.2%1.47
- Over 3.546.6%2.14
- Over 4.527.7%3.61
- Under 1.513.1%7.65
- Under 2.531.8%3.14
- Under 3.553.4%1.87
Both teams to score
- Yes55.8%1.79
- No44.2%2.26
- Yes and over 2.548.4%2.07
- Arsenal win and yes36.4%2.75
- Draw and yes13.0%7.72
- Manchester United win and yes6.5%15.43
Team goals
- Arsenal over 0.592.6%1.08
- Arsenal over 1.573.2%1.37
- Arsenal over 2.548.1%2.08
- Manchester United over 0.559.9%1.67
- Manchester United over 1.523.3%4.30
- Manchester United over 2.56.5%15.33
- Arsenal clean sheet40.1%2.50
- Manchester United clean sheet7.4%13.45
- Arsenal win to nil36.7%2.72
- Manchester United win to nil4.1%24.51
Handicap
- Arsenal −1.552.1%1.92
- Arsenal −2.531.3%3.20
- Manchester United +1.547.9%2.09
- Manchester United +2.568.7%1.46
- Manchester United −1.53.4%29.35
- Arsenal +1.596.6%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored228
Favourite won50.9%
Avg chance given to result39.5%
1X2 Brier0.613
Over 2.5 called right53.9%
BTTS called right53.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 34 | 38.2% | 44.1% |
| 40–50% | 85 | 44.9% | 45.9% |
| 50–60% | 60 | 54.7% | 51.7% |
| 60–70% | 29 | 64.1% | 58.6% |
| 70–80% | 18 | 73.6% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 83.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 198 of 228 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6147 | 0.6040 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.5% | 40.2% |
| Favourite won | 50.5% | 51.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 198 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 228 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.