Arsenal vs Manchester United – 25 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 23 Sun, Jan 25 · 16:30 Emirates Stadium, London

Arsenal 1st · 50 pts · 22 played WWWDD

2–3Full time

Manchester United 6th · 35 pts · 22 played WDDDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were clear favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (95 vs 74). Arsenal had 8 days of rest, Manchester United 8.2 and had to travel 262 km.

Away travel262 kmRest days8 · 8.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Arsenal73%

Draw16%

Manchester United11%

Expected goals 2.60 – 0.91

Arsenal70%

Draw19%

Manchester United11%

Expected goals 2.25 – 0.79

Arsenal73%

Draw16%

Manchester United11%

Expected goals 2.57 – 0.90

Arsenal66%

Draw19%

Manchester United15%

Expected goals 2.32 – 1.02

Arsenal71%

Draw18%

Manchester United11%

Expected goals 2.37 – 0.84

Over 2.5 68% Both score 56% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeCraig Pawson

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 138

Team strength

Arsenal

Manchester United

95 L90 StrengthIn forecast 74

94 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

86 AttackIn forecast 72

95 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Manchester United

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arsenal

Manchester United

1.82 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.73

0.64 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.45

1.79 xGVia Att/Def 1.85

0.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25

+0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

86% Scored inContext 86%

50% Clean sheetsContext 14%

14.91 ShotsContext 16.45

4.95 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.73

33% On target shareContext 35%

11.41 Shots in the boxContext 11.38

75% Box shareContext 67%

12% ConversionContext 11%

2.06 OffsidesContext 2.11

7.82 Shots allowedContext 10.95

2.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.64

3.26 BlocksContext 3.35

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.47

73% Save rateContext 61%

58% PossessionIn forecast 53%

492 PassesContext 459

420 Accurate passesContext 376

85% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.06 Team ratingContext 6.95

10.14 FoulsContext 10.10

10.59 Fouls sufferedContext 11.09

1.36 Yellow cardsContext 1.36

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 22 and 22 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

2.05 xGVia Att/Def 2.10

0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.02

+0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.30

80% Scored inContext 100%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

15.90 ShotsContext 18.40

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.60

30% On target shareContext 36%

12.20 Shots in the boxContext 12.70

76% Box shareContext 69%

14% ConversionContext 10%

2.25 OffsidesContext 3.43

10.20 Shots allowedContext 11.00

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

3.70 BlocksContext 4.00

2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.11

75% Save rateContext 58%

56% PossessionIn forecast 54%

475 PassesContext 472

405 Accurate passesContext 394

85% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.04 Team ratingContext 6.99

10.10 FoulsContext 10.10

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arsenal

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km350 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Manchester United

Rest8.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel262 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arsenal	Manchester United
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Premier League 2025-2026, 17 Jan	8.2Premier League 2025-2026, 17 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	262 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	350 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1David Raya(G)

5P. Hincapié 6Gabriel Magalhães 2W. Saliba 12J. Timber

41D. Rice 36Martín Zubimendi 8M. Ødegaard

19L. Trossard 9G. de Jesus 7B. Saka

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Manchester United Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31S. Lammens(G)

23L. Shaw 6L. Martínez 5J. Maguire 2Diogo Dalot

37K. Mainoo 18Casemiro

13P. Dorgu 8Bruno Fernandes 16A. Diallo

19B. Mbeumo

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arsenal Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Manchester United Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Arsenal+0.1 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Manchester United+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Arsenal · Home 2.64points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 9-2-0
Scored: 2.36
Conceded: 0.45

Manchester United · Away 1.27points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 3-5-3
Scored: 1.64
Conceded: 1.73

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Arsenal	Manchester United
Nottingham Forest	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H	D 2–2 A
Liverpool	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	W 2–1 A
Bournemouth	W 3–2 A	D 4–4 H
Aston Villa	W 4–1 HL 1–2 A	L 1–2 A
Brighton	W 2–1 H	W 4–2 H
Everton	W 1–0 A	L 0–1 H
Wolves	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 HW 4–1 A
Brentford	W 2–0 H	L 1–3 A
Chelsea	D 1–1 A	W 2–1 H
Tottenham	W 4–1 H	D 2–2 A
Sunderland	D 2–2 A	W 2–0 H
Burnley	W 2–0 A	D 2–2 AW 3–2 H
Crystal Palace	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 A
Fulham	W 1–0 A	D 1–1 A
West Ham	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 H
Newcastle	W 2–1 A	W 1–0 H
Manchester City	D 1–1 H	W 2–0 HL 0–3 A
Leeds	W 5–0 H	D 1–1 A
Points	47 of 63 · 2.24 per game	35 of 63 · 1.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

6 Arsenal wins2 draws2 Manchester United wins

Goals per game1.70 – 1.10 Over 2.550% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 10%

17 Aug 2025Manchester United0–1Arsenal
9 Mar 2025Manchester United1–1Arsenal
4 Dec 2024Arsenal2–0Manchester United
12 May 2024Manchester United0–1Arsenal
3 Sep 2023Arsenal3–1Manchester United
22 Jan 2023Arsenal3–2Manchester United

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arsenal	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	1.82	1.73
Conceded per game	0.64	1.45
Match goals	2.45	3.18	3.51
Over 1.5	68%	86%
Over 2.5	45%	59%	68%
Over 3.5	23%	36%
Both teams scored	45%	73%	56%
Clean sheets	50%	14%
Failed to score	14%	14%
Games	22	22

	Arsenal	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.90
Conceded per game	0.80	1.30
Match goals	2.40	3.20	3.51
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	68%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	80%	56%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arsenal	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	5.80	4.59
Corners conceded	3.35	4.82
Match total	9.15	9.41	9.94
Over 8.5	50% 10/20	55% 12/22
Over 9.5	45% 9/20	50% 11/22
Over 10.5	45% 9/20	27% 6/22
Cards
Cards	1.36	1.41
Opponent cards	1.82	2.32
Match total	3.18	3.73	3.86
Over 3.5	45% 10/22	55% 12/22
Over 4.5	18% 4/22	41% 9/22

	Arsenal	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	5.75	5.20
Corners conceded	3.63	4.60
Match total	9.38	9.80	9.94
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.70
Opponent cards	2.10	1.80
Match total	3.70	3.50	3.86
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Craig Pawson 138 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.91league 3.72

Red cards0.10league 0.11

Cards 5+38%league 38%

Fouls22.6league 21.3

Penalties0.21league 0.21

Home wins41%league 45%

Arsenal15 with this referee

Record9-3-3 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.7 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds2

D8 Nov 25A · Sunderland2–21
D14 Dec 24H · Everton0–00
W3 Apr 24H · Luton2–01
W11 Feb 24A · West Ham6–00
W25 Feb 23A · Leicester1–01

Manchester United16 with this referee

Record5-5-6 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 2

L27 Sep 25A · Brentford1–32
L22 Dec 24H · Bournemouth0–31
L24 Aug 24A · Brighton1–22
W19 May 24A · Brighton2–03
W26 Dec 23H · Aston Villa3–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.