VfB Stuttgart
Attack−33%
Defense risk+34%
Our take
Atletico Madrid are slight favourites.
Atletico Madrid are the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 68). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Atletico Madrid. VfB Stuttgart are without M. Mittelstädt. Atletico Madrid are without Koke. VfB Stuttgart have 3.2 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 3.3 and have to travel 1,377 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel1,377 kmRest days3.2 · 3.3Matches / 14d3 · 3
VfB Stuttgart28%
Draw23%
Atletico Madrid49%
VfB Stuttgart34%
Draw27%
Atletico Madrid39%
VfB Stuttgart28%
Draw23%
Atletico Madrid49%
VfB Stuttgart22%
Draw21%
Atletico Madrid57%
VfB Stuttgart28%
Draw24%
Atletico Madrid48%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 66%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 44 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Stuttgart)
11°COvercast
- Precipitation 3%
- Wind 2 km/h
- Humidity 86%
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 116
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for VfB Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Atletico Madrid
+0.57
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.70xG against1.13
-
Insight
Atletico Madrid
4
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
VfB Stuttgart
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Atletico Madrid
6
Wins in a row
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Wins in a row -
Trend
VfB Stuttgart
1.8
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Atletico Madrid
+0.57
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.70xG against1.13
-
Trend
Atletico Madrid
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Atletico Madrid
7
Scoring in a row
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row -
Trend
VfB Stuttgart
1.8
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Insight
Atletico Madrid
4
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Atletico Madrid
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
VfB Stuttgart
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
-
Streak
Atletico Madrid
6
Wins in a row
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Wins in a row -
Streak
Atletico Madrid
6
Unbeaten in a row
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Unbeaten in a row -
Streak
Atletico Madrid
7
Scoring in a row
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Team strength
VfB StuttgartAtletico Madrid
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
81
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
81
70
AttackIn forecast
82
58
DefenceIn forecast
87
46
Form indexContext
96
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAtletico Madrid
Attack+5%
Defense risk+17%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
VfB StuttgartAtletico Madrid
3.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
16.50
ShotsContext
9.00
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
33%
On target shareContext
39%
11.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
70%
Box shareContext
49%
18%
ConversionContext
17%
3.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
12.00
Shots allowedContext
10.50
2.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
5.50
BlocksContext
2.50
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
75%
Save rateContext
75%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
628
PassesContext
545
550
Accurate passesContext
472
88%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.15
Team ratingContext
7.01
14.00
FoulsContext
10.50
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
2.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
16.80
ShotsContext
16.10
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
37%
On target shareContext
37%
11.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
70%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.20
15.50
Shots allowedContext
10.20
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
5.22
BlocksContext
2.90
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
65%
Save rateContext
71%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
502
PassesContext
588
422
Accurate passesContext
517
84%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.07
Team ratingContext
7.04
11.10
FoulsContext
11.30
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfB Stuttgart
LLWWL
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,900 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Form 46 · 6 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
Atletico Madrid
WWWWW
Rest3.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,377 km1,562 km in 14d
Schedule load40%High
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · +6.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfB Stuttgart |
Atletico Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 28 | High · 40 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 17 Oct | 3.3La Liga 2026-2027, 17 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,377 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,900 km | 1,562 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfB Stuttgart
Last XI · not confirmed
41D. Seimen(G)
3R. Hendriks
24J. Chabot
29Finn Jeltsch
4J. Vagnoman
6A. Stiller
16A. Karazor
18J. Leweling
26D. Undav
11B. El Khannouss
9E. Demirović
Atletico Madrid
Last XI · not confirmed
13J. Oblak(G)
30Dani Martínez
17D. Hancko
21C. Romero
18Marc Pubill
23M. Hjulmand
8Pablo Barrios
20G. Simeone
7K. Lee
11A. Lookman
15J. David
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −4.8% · Defence line −13.9% of weighted minutes
- DEF M. Mittelstädt Starter 7.19 Def −11.9%
- MID N. Nartey Rotation 6.81 Att −1.8% Def −1.4%
- ATT Tiago Tomás Rotation 6.68 Att −3.0%
- DEF A. Al Dakhil Depth 6.40 Def −0.3%
- DEF D. Zagadou Depth 7.30 Def −0.3%
Atletico Madrid
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −10.4% · Defence line −6.8% of weighted minutes
- MID Koke Starter 7.04 Att −8.2% Def −5.3%
- MID J. Cardoso Rotation 6.79 Att −2.2% Def −1.5%
Total impact vs full squads
- VfB Stuttgart-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Atletico Madrid+0.4 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
VfB Stuttgart · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Atletico Madrid · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| VfB Stuttgart | Atletico Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.50 | 3.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| VfB Stuttgart | Atletico Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfB Stuttgart | Atletico Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.50 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | Atletico Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.30 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 11.70 | 9.25 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.90 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 116 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.91league 3.64
Red cards0.11league 0.14
Cards 5+41%league 36%
Fouls22.9league 23.0
Penalties0.27league 0.28
Home wins50%league 58%
VfB StuttgartNo previous matches with this referee.
Atletico Madrid3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- W10 Mar 26H · Tottenham5–20
- L2 Oct 24A · Benfica0–44
- W13 Dec 23H · Lazio2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfB Stuttgart2 games · scored 6 · conceded 1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Atletico Madrid2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 20 · conceded 10
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
8
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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