Paris FC
Attack−14%
Defense risk+6%
Our take
It looks too close to call.
Monaco are the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Paris FC. Paris FC have 7.9 days of rest, Monaco 7.1 and have to travel 689 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel689 kmRest days7.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Paris FC38%
Draw25%
Monaco36%
Paris FC31%
Draw27%
Monaco43%
Paris FC38%
Draw25%
Monaco36%
Paris FC31%
Draw25%
Monaco44%
Paris FC38%
Draw25%
Monaco36%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
13°CDrizzle
- Precipitation 19%
- Wind 12 km/h
- Humidity 95%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Paris FC and Monaco. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Paris FC
+0.62
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.77xG against1.15
-
Insight
Paris FC
3
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Paris FC
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Monaco
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
-
Insight
Paris FC
3
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Monaco
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Paris FC
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Paris FCMonaco
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
46
AttackIn forecast
45
38
DefenceIn forecast
56
73
Form indexContext
64
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMonaco
Attack+3%
Defense risk+3%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
Paris FCMonaco
1.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.86
2.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
-0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
57%
Scored inContext
86%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
14.43
ShotsContext
11.71
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.43
35%
On target shareContext
38%
9.43
Shots in the boxContext
7.14
63%
Box shareContext
61%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.80
9.57
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.14
3.00
BlocksContext
3.71
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
71%
Save rateContext
76%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
575
PassesContext
504
508
Accurate passesContext
442
88%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.98
13.71
FoulsContext
11.57
10.57
Fouls sufferedContext
11.14
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.55
70%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.40
ShotsContext
12.40
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
35%
On target shareContext
36%
9.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
65%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.10
OffsidesContext
2.25
9.90
Shots allowedContext
12.40
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
2.67
BlocksContext
3.56
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
69%
Save rateContext
68%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
524
PassesContext
511
457
Accurate passesContext
443
87%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.40
FoulsContext
11.90
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris FC
WDWLW
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km358 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 73 · 10 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected
Monaco
WDWDL
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel689 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 64 · 8 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris FC |
Monaco |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 24 Oct | 7.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 689 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 358 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris FC
Last XI · not confirmed
1K. Trapp(G)
14H. Traoré
42D. Coppola
31Samir Sophian Chergui
17Adama Camara
33P. Lees-Melou
20M. Lopez
15L. Koleosho
7P. Pagis
10I. Kebbal
9L. Sinayoko
Monaco
Last XI · not confirmed
1L. Hrádecký(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
22M. Salisu
72S. Sané
2Vanderson
6D. Zakaria
8M. Camara
10A. Golovin
31Ansu Fati
18T. Minamino
11M. Abline
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris FC
No reported absences
Monaco
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris FC+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Monaco+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Paris FC · Home
2.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 1.00
Monaco · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Paris FC | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Lorient | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Marseille | W 3–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Paris FC wins0 draws0 Monaco wins
Goals per game2.50 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 10 Apr 2026Paris FC4–1Monaco
- 1 Nov 2025Monaco0–1Paris FC
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Paris FC | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 2.29 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 57% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Paris FC | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.90 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris FC | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.17 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.17 | 9.33 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.57 | 1.43 | |
| Match total | 3.86 | 3.57 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Paris FC | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 8.11 | 9.55 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.40 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Paris FC7 games · scored 12 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Monaco7 games · scored 10 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
7
2
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
3
0-15
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
6
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
