Ligue 1 Gameweek 9 Sun, Nov 1 · 14:00 Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg
Strasbourg 14th · 7 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Auxerre 12th · 9 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Strasbourg are slight favourites.

Strasbourg are the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 30). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Auxerre. Strasbourg have 6.9 days of rest, Auxerre 6.9 and have to travel 322 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel322 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Strasbourg52%
Draw23%
Auxerre25%
Expected goals 2.01 – 1.35
Strasbourg54%
Draw25%
Auxerre22%
Expected goals 1.75 – 1.02
Strasbourg52%
Draw23%
Auxerre25%
Expected goals 2.01 – 1.35
Strasbourg44%
Draw24%
Auxerre32%
Expected goals 1.79 – 1.51
Strasbourg52%
Draw22%
Auxerre25%
Expected goals 2.05 – 1.39
Over 2.5 65% Both score 65% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Strasbourg)
10°CDrizzle
  • Precipitation 18%
  • Wind 13 km/h
  • Humidity 93%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Strasbourg and Auxerre. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

StrasbourgAuxerre
45 L90 StrengthIn forecast 30
45 Current StrengthIn forecast 30
40 AttackIn forecast 39
37 DefenceIn forecast 25
24 Form indexContext 61
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Strasbourg

Attack+15%
Defense risk−5%

Auxerre

Attack+1%
Defense risk−1%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

StrasbourgAuxerre
1.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.57
2.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.43
0.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.86
2.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.42
+0.85 Goals minus xGContext -0.29
86% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 14%
12.29 ShotsContext 11.86
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.14
41% On target shareContext 43%
8.14 Shots in the boxContext 6.00
63% Box shareContext 49%
14% ConversionContext 13%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.80
16.43 Shots allowedContext 14.71
6.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.29
5.33 BlocksContext 4.00
4.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.29
67% Save rateContext 68%
45% PossessionIn forecast 45%
435 PassesContext 384
377 Accurate passesContext 311
87% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.70 Team ratingContext 6.62
11.14 FoulsContext 14.86
8.43 Fouls sufferedContext 10.14
1.57 Yellow cardsContext 1.43
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.47
1.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.10
+0.79 Goals minus xGContext +0.33
90% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 20%
12.50 ShotsContext 12.10
5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40
42% On target shareContext 45%
8.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.25
63% Box shareContext 55%
16% ConversionContext 15%
2.50 OffsidesContext 2.57
16.70 Shots allowedContext 13.20
6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50
5.44 BlocksContext 3.33
4.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70
70% Save rateContext 67%
48% PossessionIn forecast 45%
454 PassesContext 385
393 Accurate passesContext 312
87% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.78 Team ratingContext 6.75
10.80 FoulsContext 14.60
9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Strasbourg
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,395 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 24 · 4 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -2.3 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · Paris Saint Germain1–30.5 xPts
  • L11 OctA · Nice1–21.5 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Paris FC1–21.3 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Monaco1–11.4 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Estac Troyes6–21.7 xPts
Auxerre
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel322 km633 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 61 · 9 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · LE Havre3–11.1 xPts
  • L11 OctA · Rennes1–40.7 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Stade Brestois 292–11.3 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Nice1–01.6 xPts
  • L4 SepA · Lyon1–30.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Strasbourg Auxerre
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 25 Oct6.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km322 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,395 km633 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 31 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one5.26.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Strasbourg Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Paris Saint Germain (H) 1–3, 17 Oct
1F. Jørgensen(G)
36Oso 31Karim Coulibaly 4J. Mitchell 16Genesis Antwi
21Pape Diop 14Dário Essugo
19Fabio Amadu Uri Baldé 10G. Reyna 80Gessime Yassine
40C. Harder
Auxerre Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs LE Havre (A) 3–1, 18 Oct
1P. Nardi(G)
92C. Akpa 4A. Tuanzebe 15C. Makosso
22F. Oppegård 5K. Danois 8N. Ahamada 27L. Sy
10D. Namaso 21R. Faivre
9C. Archer

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Strasbourg No reported absences
Auxerre No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Strasbourg+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Auxerre+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Strasbourg · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
1.33
Conceded
1.67
Auxerre · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-0-3
Scored
1.75
Conceded
3.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentStrasbourgAuxerre
Nice L 1–2 A W 1–0 H
Lens W 2–1 H L 2–5 A
Points3 of 6 · 1.50 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

4 Strasbourg wins1 draws1 Auxerre wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.33 Over 2.533% Both scored17% Clean sheets67% · 33%
  • 7 Mar 2026Auxerre0–0Strasbourg
  • 29 Oct 2025Strasbourg3–0Auxerre
  • 2 Mar 2025Auxerre0–1Strasbourg
  • 5 Jan 2025Strasbourg3–1Auxerre
  • 19 Mar 2023Strasbourg2–0Auxerre
  • 27 Aug 2022Auxerre1–0Strasbourg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

StrasbourgAuxerreForecast
Scored per game 1.711.57
Conceded per game 2.142.43
Match goals 3.864.00 3.35
Over 1.5 100%86%
Over 2.5 86%86% 65%
Over 3.5 43%71%
Both teams scored 86%86% 65%
Clean sheets 0%14%
Failed to score 14%0%
Games77
StrasbourgAuxerreForecast
Scored per game 2.001.80
Conceded per game 2.101.90
Match goals 4.103.70 3.35
Over 1.5 100%90%
Over 2.5 80%80% 65%
Over 3.5 40%60%
Both teams scored 90%80% 65%
Clean sheets 0%20%
Failed to score 10%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

StrasbourgAuxerreLeague
Corners
Corners won3.005.57
Corners conceded4.807.57
Match total7.8013.149.63
Over 8.560% 3/5100% 7/7
Over 9.50% 0/5100% 7/7
Over 10.50% 0/5100% 7/7
Cards
Cards1.711.57
Opponent cards1.291.71
Match total3.003.283.47
Over 3.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 4.514% 1/714% 1/7
StrasbourgAuxerreLeague
Corners
Corners won3.295.50
Corners conceded5.006.40
Match total8.2911.909.63
Over 8.571% 5/790% 9/10
Over 9.514% 1/790% 9/10
Over 10.50% 0/780% 8/10
Cards
Cards1.701.60
Opponent cards1.301.90
Match total3.003.503.47
Over 3.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 4.520% 2/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Strasbourg7 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
3 2 31-45
3 2 46-60
2 61-75
5 7 76-90
Auxerre7 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
3 0-15
1 2 16-30
3 1 31-45
1 4 46-60
4 3 61-75
2 4 76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 20 · conceded 21
1 3 0-15
2 1 16-30
5 4 31-45
4 3 46-60
2 3 61-75
6 7 76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 18 · conceded 19
1 4 0-15
2 2 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 4 46-60
7 3 61-75
3 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Ligue 1

View all fixtures →
LE Havre Paris Saint Germain Oct 3018:00 Lille Lens Oct 3020:05 Nice Rennes Oct 3116:15 Lyon Angers Oct 3119:45 Lorient Stade Brestois 29 Oct 3119:45 Estac Troyes Le Mans Oct 3119:45 Strasbourg Auxerre Nov 114:00 Paris FC Monaco Nov 116:15 Marseille Toulouse Nov 119:45