Bundesliga Gameweek 10 Fri, Nov 20 · 19:30 Fußball Arena München, München
Bayern München 1st · 14 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
1.FC Köln 12th · 7 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel456 kmRest days13.2 · 12.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Bayern München—%
Draw—%
1.FC Köln—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (München)

Forecast from 5 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Bayern München and 1.FC Köln. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Bayern München1.FC Köln
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
93 Current StrengthIn forecast 34
96 AttackIn forecast 36
90 DefenceIn forecast 36
78 Form indexContext 26
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayern München

Attack—
Defense risk—

1.FC Köln

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bayern München1.FC Köln
3.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.33
0.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.83
3.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.67
0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.73
+0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.34
83% Scored inContext 83%
33% Clean sheetsContext 0%
24.17 ShotsContext 16.33
10.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33
43% On target shareContext 33%
14.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.50
61% Box shareContext 71%
15% ConversionContext 8%
2.67 OffsidesContext 1.00
7.67 Shots allowedContext 15.67
2.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.33
3.00 BlocksContext 3.83
2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50
75% Save rateContext 71%
69% PossessionIn forecast 48%
706 PassesContext 417
635 Accurate passesContext 344
90% Pass accuracyContext 83%
7.39 Team ratingContext 6.76
10.50 FoulsContext 11.17
9.33 Fouls sufferedContext 11.33
0.83 Yellow cardsContext 1.83
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
3.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
3.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.61
1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.70
+0.33 Goals minus xGContext -0.31
90% Scored inContext 90%
40% Clean sheetsContext 0%
22.80 ShotsContext 15.30
9.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30
43% On target shareContext 35%
13.40 Shots in the boxContext 11.00
59% Box shareContext 73%
16% ConversionContext 9%
2.90 OffsidesContext 1.17
8.10 Shots allowedContext 14.50
3.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50
3.50 BlocksContext 3.80
2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56
70% Save rateContext 60%
68% PossessionIn forecast 47%
693 PassesContext 414
625 Accurate passesContext 343
90% Pass accuracyContext 83%
7.30 Team ratingContext 6.69
8.60 FoulsContext 9.80
8.70 Fouls sufferedContext 9.30
0.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayern München
Rest13.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km631 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 78 · 11 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · RB Leipzig6–12.4 xPts
  • D13 OctA · Viking3–32.8 xPts
  • D10 OctA · FC Augsburg2–22.4 xPts
  • W18 SepH · Union Berlin7–02.8 xPts
  • W13 SepA · SV Elversberg2–12.4 xPts
1.FC Köln
Rest12.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel456 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 26 · 4 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected
  • L16 OctA · Eintracht Frankfurt0–11.0 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.7 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Hamburger SV1–21.2 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Werder Bremen1–11.6 xPts
  • L4 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–40.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Bayern München 1.FC Köln
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match13.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 7 Nov12.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 8 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km456 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways631 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 40 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one57.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayern München Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs RB Leipzig (H) 6–1, 17 Oct
40J. Urbig(G)
11N. Brown 3M. Kim 2D. Upamecano 27K. Laimer
45A. Pavlović 6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz 34I. Saibari 17M. Olise
9H. Kane
1.FC Köln Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt (A) 0–1, 16 Oct
1M. Schwäbe(G)
3B. Sosa 24L. Lochoshvili 22J. Simpson-Pusey 2Joel Schmied 28S. Sebulonsen
37L. Maina 5T. Krauß 8Í. Jóhannesson
10S. El Mala 30M. Bülter

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Bayern München Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
1.FC Köln Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Bayern München · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
6.00
Conceded
0.67
1.FC Köln · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-0-3
Scored
0.67
Conceded
2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentBayern München1.FC Köln
VfB Stuttgart W 5–1 H L 1–4 A
Points3 of 3 · 3.00 per game0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

7 Bayern München wins1 draws0 1.FC Köln wins
Goals per game2.63 – 0.75 Over 2.563% Both scored63% Clean sheets38% · 0%
  • 16 May 2026Bayern München5–11.FC Köln
  • 14 Jan 20261.FC Köln1–3Bayern München
  • 13 Apr 2024Bayern München2–01.FC Köln
  • 24 Nov 20231.FC Köln0–1Bayern München
  • 27 May 20231.FC Köln1–2Bayern München
  • 24 Jan 2023Bayern München1–11.FC Köln

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Bayern München1.FC KölnForecast
Scored per game 3.671.33
Conceded per game 0.831.83
Match goals 4.503.17
Over 1.5 83%83%
Over 2.5 83%67%
Over 3.5 67%33%
Both teams scored 67%83%
Clean sheets 33%0%
Failed to score 17%17%
Games66
Bayern München1.FC KölnForecast
Scored per game 3.601.30
Conceded per game 0.902.30
Match goals 4.503.60
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 80%80%
Over 3.5 70%50%
Both teams scored 60%90%
Clean sheets 40%0%
Failed to score 10%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Bayern München1.FC KölnLeague
Corners
Corners won9.406.00
Corners conceded3.206.33
Match total12.6012.3310.72
Over 8.5100% 5/583% 5/6
Over 9.5100% 5/583% 5/6
Over 10.5100% 5/567% 4/6
Cards
Cards0.831.83
Opponent cards2.171.67
Match total3.003.503.51
Over 3.550% 3/667% 4/6
Over 4.50% 0/60% 0/6
Bayern München1.FC KölnLeague
Corners
Corners won8.445.78
Corners conceded3.785.44
Match total12.2211.2210.72
Over 8.5100% 9/978% 7/9
Over 9.578% 7/978% 7/9
Over 10.567% 6/944% 4/9
Cards
Cards1.001.80
Opponent cards1.901.70
Match total2.903.503.51
Over 3.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 4.510% 1/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Bayern München6 games · scored 22 · conceded 5
1 1 0-15
4 16-30
3 31-45
6 1 46-60
4 2 61-75
4 1 76-90
1.FC Köln6 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
3 31-45
1 2 46-60
2 3 61-75
3 2 76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 36 · conceded 9
3 2 0-15
5 1 16-30
3 1 31-45
10 1 46-60
7 2 61-75
8 2 76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 13 · conceded 23
2 3 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 4 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 6 61-75
4 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München 1.FC Köln Nov 2019:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Dortmund Nov 2114:30 Bayer Leverkusen SC Paderborn 07 Nov 2114:30 Eintracht Frankfurt 1899 Hoffenheim Nov 2114:30 Union Berlin RB Leipzig Nov 2114:30 SV Elversberg SC Freiburg Nov 2114:30 FC Schalke 04 VfB Stuttgart Nov 2117:30 FC Augsburg FSV Mainz 05 Nov 2214:30 Werder Bremen Hamburger SV Nov 2216:30