Bundesliga Gameweek 10 Sat, Nov 21 · 14:30 Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin
Union Berlin 17th · 5 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
RB Leipzig 7th · 9 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel150 kmRest days12.9 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Union Berlin—%
Draw—%
RB Leipzig—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Berlin)

Forecast from 6 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Union Berlin and RB Leipzig. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Union BerlinRB Leipzig
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
39 Current StrengthIn forecast 67
42 AttackIn forecast 76
41 DefenceIn forecast 53
38 Form indexContext 78
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Union Berlin

Attack—
Defense risk—

RB Leipzig

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Union BerlinRB Leipzig
0.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.67
2.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.83
1.17 xGVia Att/Def 2.13
2.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.76
-0.34 Goals minus xGContext +0.54
50% Scored inContext 83%
33% Clean sheetsContext 50%
12.83 ShotsContext 17.67
6.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50
35% On target shareContext 37%
9.00 Shots in the boxContext 12.67
64% Box shareContext 69%
7% ConversionContext 15%
2.60 OffsidesContext 1.25
15.67 Shots allowedContext 17.00
7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.83
4.20 BlocksContext 4.00
4.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 6.00
56% Save rateContext 77%
44% PossessionIn forecast 53%
359 PassesContext 508
268 Accurate passesContext 441
75% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.58 Team ratingContext 7.11
11.67 FoulsContext 9.83
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10
2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.92
2.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57
+0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.18
70% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 40%
12.30 ShotsContext 16.40
5.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90
38% On target shareContext 36%
8.30 Shots in the boxContext 11.60
63% Box shareContext 69%
12% ConversionContext 13%
2.43 OffsidesContext 1.29
14.50 Shots allowedContext 14.20
5.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50
4.13 BlocksContext 3.00
3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50
57% Save rateContext 69%
45% PossessionIn forecast 54%
372 PassesContext 508
285 Accurate passesContext 443
77% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.74 Team ratingContext 6.97
10.30 FoulsContext 9.30
9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30
2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Union Berlin
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,279 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 38 · 4 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · Borussia Dortmund0–00.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · SV Elversberg1–01.4 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Bayern München0–70.2 xPts
  • L11 SepH · FC Schalke 041–31.6 xPts
  • L5 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–40.7 xPts
RB Leipzig
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel150 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 78 · 9 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Bayern München1–60.5 xPts
  • W13 OctH · PSV Eindhoven1–01.6 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Eintracht Frankfurt6–02.0 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–21.1 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Hamburger SV5–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Union Berlin RB Leipzig
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match12.9Bundesliga 2026-2027, 8 Nov14Bundesliga 2026-2027, 7 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km150 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,279 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 20 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one73.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Union Berlin Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Dortmund (H) 0–0, 17 Oct
1F. Rønnow(G)
15T. Rothe 2O. Uduokhai 4Z. Van Den Bosch 19J. Haberer
13A. Schäfer 20M. Aebischer
30K. Imeri 11W. Jeong 8R. Khedira
21T. Skarke
RB Leipzig Last XI · not confirmed
4-5-1 · vs Bayern München (A) 1–6, 17 Oct
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum 23C. Lukeba 4V. Orbán 16L. Klostermann
7A. Nusa 6E. Banzuzi 21N. El Aynaoui 20R. Reitz 10B. Gruda
28C. Nkunku

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Union Berlin Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
RB Leipzig Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Union Berlin · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.50
RB Leipzig · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-0-3
Scored
0.67
Conceded
3.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentUnion BerlinRB Leipzig
Bayern München L 0–7 A L 1–6 A
Bayer Leverkusen L 0–4 A L 0–2 A
Eintracht Frankfurt D 3–3 H W 6–0 H
Points1 of 9 · 0.33 per game3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

5 Union Berlin wins2 draws3 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.30 Over 2.570% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 40%
  • 24 Apr 2026RB Leipzig3–1Union Berlin
  • 12 Dec 2025Union Berlin3–1RB Leipzig
  • 1 Feb 2025Union Berlin0–0RB Leipzig
  • 14 Sep 2024RB Leipzig0–0Union Berlin
  • 4 Feb 2024RB Leipzig2–0Union Berlin
  • 3 Sep 2023Union Berlin0–3RB Leipzig

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Union BerlinRB LeipzigForecast
Scored per game 0.832.67
Conceded per game 2.831.83
Match goals 3.674.50
Over 1.5 67%100%
Over 2.5 67%83%
Over 3.5 67%67%
Both teams scored 33%33%
Clean sheets 33%50%
Failed to score 50%17%
Games66
Union BerlinRB LeipzigForecast
Scored per game 1.502.10
Conceded per game 2.302.00
Match goals 3.804.10
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 80%80%
Over 3.5 80%60%
Both teams scored 50%50%
Clean sheets 30%40%
Failed to score 30%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Union BerlinRB LeipzigLeague
Corners
Corners won4.005.50
Corners conceded5.836.83
Match total9.8312.3310.72
Over 8.583% 5/6100% 6/6
Over 9.567% 4/667% 4/6
Over 10.533% 2/667% 4/6
Cards
Cards2.501.00
Opponent cards2.001.50
Match total4.502.503.51
Over 3.583% 5/633% 2/6
Over 4.533% 2/617% 1/6
Union BerlinRB LeipzigLeague
Corners
Corners won4.104.80
Corners conceded6.505.70
Match total10.6010.5010.72
Over 8.580% 8/1070% 7/10
Over 9.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Over 10.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards2.201.30
Opponent cards1.901.30
Match total4.102.603.51
Over 3.570% 7/1030% 3/10
Over 4.530% 3/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Union Berlin6 games · scored 5 · conceded 17
1 3 0-15
3 16-30
2 31-45
3 46-60
4 61-75
4 2 76-90
RB Leipzig6 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
2 2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
3 2 61-75
4 1 76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 15 · conceded 23
2 3 0-15
5 16-30
2 3 31-45
1 4 46-60
1 6 61-75
9 2 76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 21 · conceded 20
2 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
4 3 31-45
4 5 46-60
4 3 61-75
4 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München 1.FC Köln Nov 2019:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Dortmund Nov 2114:30 Bayer Leverkusen SC Paderborn 07 Nov 2114:30 Eintracht Frankfurt 1899 Hoffenheim Nov 2114:30 Union Berlin RB Leipzig Nov 2114:30 SV Elversberg SC Freiburg Nov 2114:30 FC Schalke 04 VfB Stuttgart Nov 2117:30 FC Augsburg FSV Mainz 05 Nov 2214:30 Werder Bremen Hamburger SV Nov 2216:30