1.FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen

Bundesliga Gameweek 9 Sun, Nov 8 · 14:30 Cologne Stadium, Köln

1.FC Köln 12th · 7 pts · 6 played LDLWL

VS— Compare

Bayer Leverkusen 4th · 13 pts · 6 played WDWWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bayer Leverkusen are clear favourites.

Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Bayer Leverkusen. 1.FC Köln have 7 days of rest, Bayer Leverkusen 2.8 and have to travel 11 km.

Away travel11 kmRest days7 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 3

1.FC Köln15%

Draw17%

Bayer Leverkusen68%

Expected goals 1.21 – 2.67

1.FC Köln18%

Draw23%

Bayer Leverkusen58%

Expected goals 0.96 – 1.86

1.FC Köln15%

Draw17%

Bayer Leverkusen68%

Expected goals 1.21 – 2.67

1.FC Köln10%

Draw14%

Bayer Leverkusen76%

Expected goals 1.08 – 2.99

1.FC Köln16%

Draw19%

Bayer Leverkusen65%

Expected goals 1.12 – 2.41

Over 2.5 74% Both score 66% Likeliest score 1–2

EloLambda forecast, updated 1 day ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Köln)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

1.FC Köln

Bayer Leverkusen

34 L90 StrengthIn forecast 79

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 79

36 AttackIn forecast 87

36 DefenceIn forecast 79

26 Form indexContext 94

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

1.FC Köln

Attack−21%

Defense risk+45%

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack+18%

Defense risk−22%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

1.FC Köln

Bayer Leverkusen

1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.67

1.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.67 xGVia Att/Def 2.19

1.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

-0.34 Goals minus xGContext +0.48

83% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 33%

16.33 ShotsContext 19.67

5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.17

33% On target shareContext 31%

11.50 Shots in the boxContext 13.83

71% Box shareContext 71%

8% ConversionContext 14%

1.00 OffsidesContext 1.33

15.67 Shots allowedContext 11.50

6.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

3.83 BlocksContext 2.67

4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.20

71% Save rateContext 52%

48% PossessionIn forecast 58%

417 PassesContext 539

344 Accurate passesContext 470

83% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.76 Team ratingContext 7.02

11.17 FoulsContext 12.33

11.33 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

1.83 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40

2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.61 xGVia Att/Def 2.35

1.70 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25

-0.31 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

90% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 40%

15.30 ShotsContext 18.50

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.60

35% On target shareContext 36%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 13.30

73% Box shareContext 71%

9% ConversionContext 13%

1.17 OffsidesContext 1.89

14.50 Shots allowedContext 12.20

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56

3.80 BlocksContext 3.10

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

60% Save rateContext 63%

47% PossessionIn forecast 58%

414 PassesContext 537

343 Accurate passesContext 470

83% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.69 Team ratingContext 7.06

9.80 FoulsContext 11.90

9.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

1.FC Köln LDLWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km957 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 26 · 4 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected

L16 OctA · Eintracht Frankfurt0–11.0 xPts
W11 OctH · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.7 xPts
L19 SepA · Hamburger SV1–21.2 xPts
D12 SepH · Werder Bremen1–11.6 xPts
L4 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–40.7 xPts

Bayer Leverkusen WWWWW

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel11 km479 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

Form 94 · 15 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected

W18 OctH · SC Freiburg2–12.1 xPts
W15 OctA · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts
W10 OctA · FSV Mainz 054–31.6 xPts
W20 SepH · RB Leipzig2–01.7 xPts
W16 SepH · Celje2–02.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	1.FC Köln	Bayer Leverkusen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 23
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 1 Nov	2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 5 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	11 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	957 km	479 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	12.2	13

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

1.FC Köln Last XI · not confirmed

5-3-2 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt (A) 0–1, 16 Oct

1M. Schwäbe(G)

3B. Sosa 24L. Lochoshvili 22J. Simpson-Pusey 2Joel Schmied 28S. Sebulonsen

37L. Maina 5T. Krauß 8Í. Jóhannesson

10S. El Mala 30M. Bülter

Bayer Leverkusen Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs SC Freiburg (H) 2–1, 18 Oct

1M. Flekken(G)

3Miguel Gutiérrez 2F. Medina 12E. Tapsoba 4J. Quansah

6E. Fernández 24Aleix García

9Afonso Moreira 30I. Maza 19M. Diaby

14P. Schick

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

1.FC Köln No reported absences

Bayer Leverkusen No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

1.FC Köln+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Bayer Leverkusen+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

1.FC Köln · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.33

Bayer Leverkusen · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 2.67
Conceded: 2.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 1.FC Köln wins1 draws5 Bayer Leverkusen wins

Goals per game0.88 – 1.75 Over 2.563% Both scored50% Clean sheets13% · 38%

25 Apr 20261.FC Köln1–2Bayer Leverkusen
13 Dec 2025Bayer Leverkusen2–01.FC Köln
3 Mar 20241.FC Köln0–2Bayer Leverkusen
8 Oct 2023Bayer Leverkusen3–01.FC Köln
5 May 2023Bayer Leverkusen1–21.FC Köln
9 Nov 20221.FC Köln1–2Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	1.FC Köln	Bayer Leverkusen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	2.67
Conceded per game	1.83	1.50
Match goals	3.17	4.17	3.88
Over 1.5	83%	100%
Over 2.5	67%	83%	74%
Over 3.5	33%	67%
Both teams scored	83%	67%	66%
Clean sheets	0%	33%
Failed to score	17%	0%
Games	6	6

	1.FC Köln	Bayer Leverkusen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	2.40
Conceded per game	2.30	1.30
Match goals	3.60	3.70	3.88
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	80%	70%	74%
Over 3.5	50%	60%
Both teams scored	90%	60%	66%
Clean sheets	0%	40%
Failed to score	10%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	1.FC Köln	Bayer Leverkusen	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	7.33
Corners conceded	6.33	3.33
Match total	12.33	10.66	10.72
Over 8.5	83% 5/6	50% 3/6
Over 9.5	83% 5/6	50% 3/6
Over 10.5	67% 4/6	50% 3/6
Cards
Cards	1.83	1.33
Opponent cards	1.67	2.17
Match total	3.50	3.50	3.51
Over 3.5	67% 4/6	67% 4/6
Over 4.5	0% 0/6	33% 2/6

	1.FC Köln	Bayer Leverkusen	League
Corners
Corners won	5.78	6.70
Corners conceded	5.44	3.50
Match total	11.22	10.20	10.72
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.20
Opponent cards	1.70	1.80
Match total	3.50	3.00	3.51
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.