Bundesliga Gameweek 10 Sat, Nov 21 · 14:30 BORUSSIA-PARK, Mönchengladbach
Borussia Mönchengladbach 18th · 0 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Borussia Dortmund 2nd · 14 pts · 6 played
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Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel80 kmRest days14.8 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Borussia Mönchengladbach—%
Draw—%
Borussia Dortmund—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Mönchengladbach)

Forecast from 6 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Dortmund
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
36 Current StrengthIn forecast 80
34 AttackIn forecast 69
21 DefenceIn forecast 80
7 Form indexContext 61
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Attack—
Defense risk—

Borussia Dortmund

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Dortmund
1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.83
3.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.67
1.40 xGVia Att/Def 1.76
2.49 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92
-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.07
67% Scored inContext 83%
0% Clean sheetsContext 67%
15.17 ShotsContext 15.17
5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.17
30% On target shareContext 34%
9.83 Shots in the boxContext 10.50
64% Box shareContext 73%
9% ConversionContext 12%
3.00 OffsidesContext 1.50
18.17 Shots allowedContext 11.67
8.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
3.20 BlocksContext 2.80
5.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
62% Save rateContext 78%
48% PossessionIn forecast 55%
404 PassesContext 530
328 Accurate passesContext 450
81% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.46 Team ratingContext 7.04
14.83 FoulsContext 11.17
10.17 Fouls sufferedContext 11.83
2.83 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.17
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90
1.26 xGVia Att/Def 1.85
2.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96
+0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.05
70% Scored inContext 80%
30% Clean sheetsContext 50%
13.50 ShotsContext 14.70
4.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70
30% On target shareContext 39%
8.80 Shots in the boxContext 10.30
65% Box shareContext 72%
10% ConversionContext 13%
2.78 OffsidesContext 1.63
15.10 Shots allowedContext 11.20
7.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25
2.88 BlocksContext 2.78
4.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25
68% Save rateContext 77%
50% PossessionIn forecast 54%
432 PassesContext 530
356 Accurate passesContext 454
82% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.63 Team ratingContext 6.99
12.60 FoulsContext 10.90
11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40
2.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.10
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 7 · 0 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -6.2 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · 1899 Hoffenheim1–21.5 xPts
  • L11 OctA · 1.FC Köln1–21.1 xPts
  • L19 SepH · FSV Mainz 053–41.3 xPts
  • L12 SepA · SC Freiburg0–50.7 xPts
  • L5 SepH · SV Elversberg3–41.6 xPts
Borussia Dortmund
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel80 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 8 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Union Berlin0–01.9 xPts
  • L14 OctA · Bodo/Glimt0–11.6 xPts
  • D9 OctH · Werder Bremen2–22.3 xPts
  • W19 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–01.6 xPts
  • W12 SepH · SC Paderborn 073–02.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Dortmund
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 6 Nov14Bundesliga 2026-2027, 7 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km80 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 20 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one6.23.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Borussia Mönchengladbach Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim (H) 1–2, 18 Oct
1M. Nicolas(G)
26L. Ullrich 2F. Chiarodia 4K. Diks 16P. Sander
36W. Mohya 10F. Neuhaus 47Z. Uno 29J. Scally
3I. Lidberg 38A. Bolin
Borussia Dortmund Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Union Berlin (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck 3W. Anton 22J. Gadou
24D. Svensson 8F. Nmecha 7J. Bellingham 26J. Ryerson
14M. Beier 18E. Nwaneri
9S. Guirassy

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Borussia Mönchengladbach Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Borussia Dortmund Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home 0.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
0-0-3
Scored
2.33
Conceded
3.33
Borussia Dortmund · Away 2.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
1.33
Conceded
0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentBorussia MönchengladbachBorussia Dortmund
1899 Hoffenheim L 1–2 H W 3–2 A
Points0 of 3 · 0.00 per game3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins1 draws6 Borussia Dortmund wins
Goals per game1.40 – 2.50 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 20%
  • 3 May 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach1–0Borussia Dortmund
  • 19 Dec 2025Borussia Dortmund2–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
  • 20 Apr 2025Borussia Dortmund3–2Borussia Mönchengladbach
  • 7 Dec 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach1–1Borussia Dortmund
  • 13 Apr 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach1–2Borussia Dortmund
  • 25 Nov 2023Borussia Dortmund4–2Borussia Mönchengladbach

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia DortmundForecast
Scored per game 1.331.83
Conceded per game 3.330.67
Match goals 4.672.50
Over 1.5 100%67%
Over 2.5 100%50%
Over 3.5 50%33%
Both teams scored 67%33%
Clean sheets 0%67%
Failed to score 33%17%
Games66
Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia DortmundForecast
Scored per game 1.401.90
Conceded per game 2.300.90
Match goals 3.702.80
Over 1.5 80%70%
Over 2.5 80%50%
Over 3.5 50%40%
Both teams scored 50%40%
Clean sheets 30%50%
Failed to score 30%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia DortmundLeague
Corners
Corners won6.004.83
Corners conceded5.504.67
Match total11.509.5010.72
Over 8.583% 5/667% 4/6
Over 9.567% 4/667% 4/6
Over 10.550% 3/633% 2/6
Cards
Cards3.002.67
Opponent cards1.832.00
Match total4.834.673.51
Over 3.583% 5/667% 4/6
Over 4.533% 2/650% 3/6
Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia DortmundLeague
Corners
Corners won4.605.80
Corners conceded5.304.50
Match total9.9010.3010.72
Over 8.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Over 9.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 10.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards3.102.20
Opponent cards2.101.50
Match total5.203.703.51
Over 3.590% 9/1050% 5/10
Over 4.540% 4/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Borussia Mönchengladbach6 games · scored 8 · conceded 20
2 1 0-15
6 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 2 46-60
3 61-75
1 7 76-90
Borussia Dortmund6 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
2 0-15
16-30
1 1 31-45
1 46-60
3 61-75
5 2 76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
3 1 0-15
1 7 16-30
2 2 31-45
3 2 46-60
4 61-75
5 7 76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
2 1 0-15
16-30
3 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
8 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München 1.FC Köln Nov 2019:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Dortmund Nov 2114:30 Bayer Leverkusen SC Paderborn 07 Nov 2114:30 Eintracht Frankfurt 1899 Hoffenheim Nov 2114:30 Union Berlin RB Leipzig Nov 2114:30 SV Elversberg SC Freiburg Nov 2114:30 FC Schalke 04 VfB Stuttgart Nov 2117:30 FC Augsburg FSV Mainz 05 Nov 2214:30 Werder Bremen Hamburger SV Nov 2216:30