Bundesliga Gameweek 10 Sat, Nov 21 · 14:30 BayArena, Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen 4th · 13 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
SC Paderborn 07 16th · 5 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel145 kmRest days13 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Bayer Leverkusen—%
Draw—%
SC Paderborn 07—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Leverkusen)

Forecast from 6 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Bayer Leverkusen and SC Paderborn 07. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Bayer LeverkusenSC Paderborn 07
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
79 Current StrengthIn forecast 38
87 AttackIn forecast 34
79 DefenceIn forecast 33
94 Form indexContext 33
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack—
Defense risk—

SC Paderborn 07

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bayer LeverkusenSC Paderborn 07
2.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.83
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
2.19 xGVia Att/Def 0.90
1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.84
+0.48 Goals minus xGContext -0.07
100% Scored inContext 33%
33% Clean sheetsContext 17%
19.67 ShotsContext 13.50
6.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.25
31% On target shareContext 21%
13.83 Shots in the boxContext 7.67
71% Box shareContext 58%
14% ConversionContext 6%
1.33 OffsidesContext 1.20
11.50 Shots allowedContext 18.17
4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.33
2.67 BlocksContext 6.33
2.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.67
52% Save rateContext 74%
58% PossessionIn forecast 46%
539 PassesContext 443
470 Accurate passesContext 357
87% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.02 Team ratingContext 6.88
12.33 FoulsContext 10.50
10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.83
1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.33
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
2.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.16
1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.69
+0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.06
100% Scored inContext 50%
40% Clean sheetsContext 30%
18.50 ShotsContext 14.50
6.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.75
36% On target shareContext 26%
13.30 Shots in the boxContext 10.38
71% Box shareContext 60%
13% ConversionContext 8%
1.89 OffsidesContext 1.33
12.20 Shots allowedContext 16.00
4.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.80
3.10 BlocksContext 5.11
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.60
63% Save rateContext 79%
58% PossessionIn forecast 48%
537 PassesContext 451
470 Accurate passesContext 366
88% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.06 Team ratingContext 6.94
11.90 FoulsContext 10.80
9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60
1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayer Leverkusen
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km22 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 94 · 15 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · SC Freiburg2–12.1 xPts
  • W15 OctA · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts
  • W10 OctA · FSV Mainz 054–31.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · RB Leipzig2–01.7 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Celje2–02.6 xPts
SC Paderborn 07
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel145 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 33 · 4 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Werder Bremen2–21.1 xPts
  • L10 OctH · VfB Stuttgart0–21.2 xPts
  • W20 SepH · 1899 Hoffenheim3–11.3 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Borussia Dortmund0–30.5 xPts
  • L5 SepH · SC Freiburg0–11.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Bayer Leverkusen SC Paderborn 07
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match13Bundesliga 2026-2027, 8 Nov14Bundesliga 2026-2027, 7 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km145 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways22 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 40 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one5.17

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayer Leverkusen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs SC Freiburg (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
1M. Flekken(G)
3Miguel Gutiérrez 2F. Medina 12E. Tapsoba 4J. Quansah
6E. Fernández 24Aleix García
9Afonso Moreira 30I. Maza 19M. Diaby
14P. Schick
SC Paderborn 07 Last XI · not confirmed
3-1-4-2 · vs Werder Bremen (A) 2–2, 17 Oct
15N. Noll(G)
22M. Hansen 25T. Scheller 21J. ter Horst
5S. Castañeda
23R. Obermair 40G. Vidović 28L. Ulrich 17L. Curda
27S. Tigges 30S. Marino

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Bayer Leverkusen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
SC Paderborn 07 Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Bayer Leverkusen · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
2.67
Conceded
0.33
SC Paderborn 07 · Away 0.67points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-2-1
Scored
0.67
Conceded
1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentBayer LeverkusenSC Paderborn 07
SC Freiburg W 2–1 H L 0–1 H
FSV Mainz 05 W 4–3 A D 0–0 A
Points6 of 6 · 3.00 per game1 of 6 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Bayer LeverkusenSC Paderborn 07Forecast
Scored per game 2.670.83
Conceded per game 1.501.50
Match goals 4.172.33
Over 1.5 100%67%
Over 2.5 83%50%
Over 3.5 67%33%
Both teams scored 67%33%
Clean sheets 33%17%
Failed to score 0%67%
Games66
Bayer LeverkusenSC Paderborn 07Forecast
Scored per game 2.400.83
Conceded per game 1.301.50
Match goals 3.702.33
Over 1.5 100%67%
Over 2.5 70%50%
Over 3.5 60%33%
Both teams scored 60%33%
Clean sheets 40%17%
Failed to score 0%67%
Games106

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Bayer LeverkusenSC Paderborn 07League
Corners
Corners won7.334.33
Corners conceded3.336.17
Match total10.6610.5010.72
Over 8.550% 3/683% 5/6
Over 9.550% 3/667% 4/6
Over 10.550% 3/650% 3/6
Cards
Cards1.331.33
Opponent cards2.171.17
Match total3.502.503.51
Over 3.567% 4/617% 1/6
Over 4.533% 2/617% 1/6
Bayer LeverkusenSC Paderborn 07League
Corners
Corners won6.705.10
Corners conceded3.504.70
Match total10.209.8010.72
Over 8.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 9.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 10.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.201.70
Opponent cards1.802.00
Match total3.003.703.51
Over 3.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 4.520% 2/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Bayer Leverkusen6 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
3 3 0-15
3 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 61-75
4 1 76-90
SC Paderborn 076 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1 0-15
3 2 16-30
1 31-45
2 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
5 4 0-15
4 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
3 1 61-75
6 1 76-90
SC Paderborn 0710 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
1 2 0-15
4 2 16-30
2 31-45
2 46-60
1 2 61-75
3 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München 1.FC Köln Nov 2019:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Dortmund Nov 2114:30 Bayer Leverkusen SC Paderborn 07 Nov 2114:30 Eintracht Frankfurt 1899 Hoffenheim Nov 2114:30 Union Berlin RB Leipzig Nov 2114:30 SV Elversberg SC Freiburg Nov 2114:30 FC Schalke 04 VfB Stuttgart Nov 2117:30 FC Augsburg FSV Mainz 05 Nov 2214:30 Werder Bremen Hamburger SV Nov 2216:30