Bundesliga Gameweek 10 Sat, Nov 21 · 14:30 URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg
SV Elversberg 6th · 10 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
SC Freiburg 3rd · 13 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel156 kmRest days14 · 12.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
SV Elversberg—%
Draw—%
SC Freiburg—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Spiesen-Elversberg)

Forecast from 6 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for SV Elversberg and SC Freiburg. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

SV ElversbergSC Freiburg
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
42 Current StrengthIn forecast 64
44 AttackIn forecast 63
37 DefenceIn forecast 73
60 Form indexContext 78
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SV Elversberg

Attack—
Defense risk—

SC Freiburg

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SV ElversbergSC Freiburg
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
1.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.45 xGVia Att/Def 1.87
2.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.94
+0.55 Goals minus xGContext +0.63
67% Scored inContext 100%
17% Clean sheetsContext 33%
11.17 ShotsContext 16.00
4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33
42% On target shareContext 33%
8.17 Shots in the boxContext 10.00
72% Box shareContext 63%
18% ConversionContext 16%
3.20 OffsidesContext 1.33
22.00 Shots allowedContext 9.17
5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00
8.50 BlocksContext 3.33
3.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25
59% Save rateContext 64%
44% PossessionIn forecast 53%
382 PassesContext 465
303 Accurate passesContext 390
80% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.82 Team ratingContext 7.06
11.67 FoulsContext 9.50
13.17 Fouls sufferedContext 14.17
2.17 Yellow cardsContext 1.67
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40
1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.46 xGVia Att/Def 1.52
1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17
+0.94 Goals minus xGContext +0.88
80% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 20%
11.20 ShotsContext 13.50
4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
38% On target shareContext 37%
7.56 Shots in the boxContext 8.70
66% Box shareContext 64%
21% ConversionContext 18%
2.86 OffsidesContext 1.71
16.90 Shots allowedContext 11.00
4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
6.33 BlocksContext 3.80
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.63
59% Save rateContext 60%
48% PossessionIn forecast 53%
387 PassesContext 445
309 Accurate passesContext 373
80% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.83 Team ratingContext 6.98
11.50 FoulsContext 10.80
12.40 Fouls sufferedContext 13.10
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SV Elversberg
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km491 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 60 · 7 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · FC Augsburg4–31.4 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Union Berlin0–11.3 xPts
  • D20 SepA · FC Schalke 040–01.1 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Bayern München1–20.5 xPts
  • W5 SepA · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–31.2 xPts
SC Freiburg
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel156 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 78 · 10 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Bayer Leverkusen1–20.8 xPts
  • W11 OctH · FC Schalke 042–12.0 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Eintracht Frankfurt2–21.5 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Borussia Mönchengladbach5–02.1 xPts
  • W5 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–01.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
SV Elversberg SC Freiburg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14Bundesliga 2026-2027, 7 Nov12.9Bundesliga 2026-2027, 8 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km156 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways491 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 20 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one78

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SV Elversberg Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs FC Augsburg (H) 4–3, 17 Oct
20N. Kristof(G)
21L. Günther 31M. Rohr 19L. Pinckert 30J. Gyamerah
8Ł. Poręba 43F. Keidel
7M. Krattenmacher 10N. Darvich 25L. Petkov
42David Mokwa
SC Freiburg Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Bayer Leverkusen (A) 1–2, 18 Oct
1M. Backhaus(G)
33J. Makengo 3P. Lienhart 28M. Ginter 29P. Treu
16Y. Engelhardt 8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant 42Keisuke Goto 19J. Beste
31I. Matanović

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
SV Elversberg Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
SC Freiburg Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

SV Elversberg · Home 2.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-0-1
Scored
2.67
Conceded
2.33
SC Freiburg · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
1.33
Conceded
1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentSV ElversbergSC Freiburg
FC Schalke 04 D 0–0 A W 2–1 H
Borussia Mönchengladbach W 4–3 A W 5–0 H
Bayer Leverkusen W 3–2 H L 1–2 A
Points7 of 9 · 2.33 per game6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

SV ElversbergSC FreiburgForecast
Scored per game 2.002.50
Conceded per game 1.831.00
Match goals 3.833.50
Over 1.5 67%83%
Over 2.5 67%83%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 67%67%
Clean sheets 17%33%
Failed to score 33%0%
Games66
SV ElversbergSC FreiburgForecast
Scored per game 2.002.40
Conceded per game 1.831.40
Match goals 3.833.80
Over 1.5 67%90%
Over 2.5 67%90%
Over 3.5 50%60%
Both teams scored 67%70%
Clean sheets 17%20%
Failed to score 33%10%
Games610

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SV ElversbergSC FreiburgLeague
Corners
Corners won3.675.17
Corners conceded8.003.50
Match total11.678.6710.72
Over 8.567% 4/650% 3/6
Over 9.567% 4/617% 1/6
Over 10.550% 3/617% 1/6
Cards
Cards2.171.83
Opponent cards1.831.83
Match total4.003.663.51
Over 3.550% 3/667% 4/6
Over 4.533% 2/633% 2/6
SV ElversbergSC FreiburgLeague
Corners
Corners won4.004.10
Corners conceded6.204.00
Match total10.208.1010.72
Over 8.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 9.550% 5/1020% 2/10
Over 10.530% 3/1020% 2/10
Cards
Cards1.901.40
Opponent cards2.302.20
Match total4.203.603.51
Over 3.550% 5/1070% 7/10
Over 4.540% 4/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

SV Elversberg6 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
4 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
2 31-45
1 1 46-60
2 1 61-75
3 5 76-90
SC Freiburg6 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
2 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 46-60
61-75
4 2 76-90
SV Elversberg10 games · scored 24 · conceded 18
7 3 0-15
5 2 16-30
3 3 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 2 61-75
5 5 76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 24 · conceded 14
2 2 0-15
8 2 16-30
3 4 31-45
4 1 46-60
2 2 61-75
5 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München 1.FC Köln Nov 2019:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Dortmund Nov 2114:30 Bayer Leverkusen SC Paderborn 07 Nov 2114:30 Eintracht Frankfurt 1899 Hoffenheim Nov 2114:30 Union Berlin RB Leipzig Nov 2114:30 SV Elversberg SC Freiburg Nov 2114:30 FC Schalke 04 VfB Stuttgart Nov 2117:30 FC Augsburg FSV Mainz 05 Nov 2214:30 Werder Bremen Hamburger SV Nov 2216:30