Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar – 28 Jan 2027

UEFA Europa League Matchday 8 Thu, Jan 28 · 20:00 Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa

Benfica 3rd · 6 pts · 2 played WW

VS— Compare

AZ Alkmaar 20th · 3 pts · 2 played LW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,879 kmRest days4.2 · 4.2Matches / 14d3 · 3

Real contextStrength only

Benfica—%

Draw—%

AZ Alkmaar—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Lisboa)

Forecast from 13 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Benfica 10+ Scoring in a row Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Benfica

AZ Alkmaar

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

82 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

81 AttackIn forecast 52

81 DefenceIn forecast 49

85 Form indexContext 43

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Benfica

Attack—

Defense risk—

AZ Alkmaar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Benfica

AZ Alkmaar

3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.62 xGVia Att/Def 2.07

1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67

+1.38 Goals minus xGContext -1.07

100% Scored inContext 50%

50% Clean sheetsContext 0%

18.50 ShotsContext 12.50

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

30% On target shareContext 32%

12.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

63% Box shareContext 64%

16% ConversionContext 8%

2.50 OffsidesContext —

14.50 Shots allowedContext 13.00

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.00 BlocksContext 3.00

5.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

91% Save rateContext 88%

47% PossessionIn forecast 57%

477 PassesContext 538

424 Accurate passesContext 451

89% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.38 Team ratingContext 6.78

10.50 FoulsContext 13.00

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 15.00

4.00 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

2.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

2.03 xGVia Att/Def 2.20

0.77 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

+0.67 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

100% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

18.13 ShotsContext 16.90

5.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.30

32% On target shareContext 37%

13.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.67

71% Box shareContext 65%

15% ConversionContext 12%

2.17 OffsidesContext 2.20

9.88 Shots allowedContext 9.70

3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

2.56 BlocksContext 2.89

2.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30

75% Save rateContext 68%

60% PossessionIn forecast 59%

538 PassesContext 543

472 Accurate passesContext 466

88% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.16 Team ratingContext 6.87

11.00 FoulsContext 12.40

15.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Benfica WWLWW

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km4,209 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

Form 85 · 12 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected

W15 OctH · Celtic4–12.3 xPts
W11 OctH · Guimaraes2–02.5 xPts
L20 SepA · FC Porto1–31.3 xPts
W16 SepA · AC Milan2–01.7 xPts
W13 SepH · GIL Vicente3–12.5 xPts

AZ Alkmaar LWLWD

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel1,879 km209 km in 14d

Schedule load35%Moderate

Form 43 · 7 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

D18 OctA · Cambuur2–21.9 xPts
W15 OctH · Hapoel Beer Sheva2–12.0 xPts
L10 OctA · Feyenoord0–21.0 xPts
W20 SepH · Telstar1–02.4 xPts
L16 SepA · Sunderland0–11.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Benfica	AZ Alkmaar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Moderate · 35
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 24 Jan	4.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 24 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,879 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	4,209 km	209 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	2 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	2.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Benfica Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Celtic (H) 4–1, 15 Oct

1A. Trubin(G)

26S. Dahl 2C. Lenglet 44Tomás Araújo 6A. Bah

36João Palhinha 8F. Aursnes

25G. Prestianni 10H. Sudakov 11D. Lukébakio

22J. Durán

AZ Alkmaar Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Cambuur (A) 2–2, 18 Oct

28J. De Busser(G)

5Mateo Chávez 4L. Schouten 3W. Goes 22Elijah Dijkstra

6P. Koopmeiners 8J. Clasie

11Ro-Zangelo Daal 14C. Stengs 24A. Oufkir

9M. Meerdink

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Benfica Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

AZ Alkmaar Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Benfica · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 4.00
Conceded: 1.00

AZ Alkmaar · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Benfica	AZ Alkmaar
Scored per game	3.00	1.00
Conceded per game	0.50	1.00
Match goals	3.50	2.00
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%
Over 3.5	50%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	2	2

	Benfica	AZ Alkmaar
Scored per game	2.70	2.00
Conceded per game	0.80	1.20
Match goals	3.50	3.20
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	50%
Over 3.5	60%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	60%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Benfica	AZ Alkmaar	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	5.00
Corners conceded	7.50	5.00
Match total	12.00	10.00	9.76
Over 8.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	4.00	3.00
Opponent cards	0.50	3.50
Match total	4.50	6.50	3.76
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2

	Benfica	AZ Alkmaar	League
Corners
Corners won	6.38	7.30
Corners conceded	4.25	3.60
Match total	10.63	10.90	9.76
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.70
Opponent cards	2.20	1.90
Match total	4.60	3.60	3.76
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.