UEFA Europa League Matchday 8 Thu, Jan 28 · 20:00 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
AC Milan 16th · 3 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Ararat-Armenia 34th · 0 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel2,916 kmRest days4.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d3 · 1
Real contextStrength only
AC Milan—%
Draw—%
Ararat-Armenia—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Milano)

Forecast from 13 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for AC Milan and Ararat-Armenia. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

AC MilanArarat-Armenia
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
66 Current StrengthIn forecast 7
72 AttackIn forecast 8
69 DefenceIn forecast 8
74 Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AC Milan

Attack—
Defense risk—

Ararat-Armenia

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AC MilanArarat-Armenia
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 3.50
2.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.46
0.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.95
-0.51 Goals minus xGContext -0.46
50% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 0%
15.00 ShotsContext 14.00
7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00
47% On target shareContext 21%
10.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.50
70% Box shareContext 62%
13% ConversionContext 7%
— OffsidesContext —
12.50 Shots allowedContext 18.50
3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50
4.00 BlocksContext 6.00
2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
67% Save rateContext 39%
54% PossessionIn forecast 50%
511 PassesContext 434
464 Accurate passesContext 375
91% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.90 Team ratingContext 6.47
13.00 FoulsContext 14.50
12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 19.50
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.50 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60
1.97 xGVia Att/Def —
1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
-0.07 Goals minus xGContext —
90% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
13.20 ShotsContext 11.33
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00
38% On target shareContext 27%
9.00 Shots in the boxContext —
69% Box shareContext —
14% ConversionContext 12%
1.86 OffsidesContext —
11.70 Shots allowedContext 17.67
4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.67
3.44 BlocksContext 4.80
3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext —
78% Save rateContext 39%
57% PossessionIn forecast 48%
556 PassesContext —
498 Accurate passesContext —
90% Pass accuracyContext —
6.98 Team ratingContext 6.21
9.90 FoulsContext 11.00
11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 16.60
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AC Milan
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,419 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 74 · 10 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Atalanta3–22.1 xPts
  • W15 OctA · Red Bull Salzburg4–01.4 xPts
  • D11 OctA · Sassuolo1–11.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Lecce3–02.3 xPts
  • L16 SepH · Benfica0–21.0 xPts
Ararat-Armenia
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel2,916 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 23 · 0 pts vs 3.4 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
  • L15 OctA · Jagiellonia1–30.5 xPts
  • L16 SepH · Sparta Praha1–40.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
AC Milan Ararat-Armenia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 25Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.1Serie A 2026-2027, 24 Jan7.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 21 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,916 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways3,419 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 3 / 60 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one2.9—

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AC Milan Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Atalanta (H) 3–2, 18 Oct
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović 5K. De Winter 34Mario Gila
22Diego Moreira 14L. Modrić 80Y. Musah 21S. Chukwueze
11C. Pulišić 9Gonçalo Ramos 12A. Rabiot
Ararat-Armenia Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Jagiellonia (A) 1–3, 15 Oct
98João Bravim(G)
5Luis Felipe 17M. Carlier 43Bruno Wilson
16E. Grigoryan 20A. Tera 8J. Balanta 2Hugo Oliveira
11Z. Banjaqui 91Sandro Lima 77A. Serobyan

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
AC Milan Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Ararat-Armenia Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

AC Milan · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
2.00
Ararat-Armenia · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

AC MilanArarat-ArmeniaForecast
Scored per game 2.001.00
Conceded per game 1.003.50
Match goals 3.004.50
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 50%100%
Over 3.5 50%100%
Both teams scored 0%100%
Clean sheets 50%0%
Failed to score 50%0%
Games22
AC MilanArarat-ArmeniaForecast
Scored per game 1.901.30
Conceded per game 1.101.60
Match goals 3.002.90
Over 1.5 100%90%
Over 2.5 60%50%
Over 3.5 30%30%
Both teams scored 60%60%
Clean sheets 30%30%
Failed to score 10%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AC MilanArarat-ArmeniaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.502.50
Corners conceded2.007.50
Match total7.5010.009.76
Over 8.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 9.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 10.50% 0/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards1.502.50
Opponent cards3.001.50
Match total4.504.003.76
Over 3.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 4.550% 1/250% 1/2
AC MilanArarat-ArmeniaLeague
Corners
Corners won3.703.83
Corners conceded3.107.33
Match total6.8011.169.76
Over 8.520% 2/1067% 4/6
Over 9.520% 2/1067% 4/6
Over 10.50% 0/1050% 3/6
Cards
Cards1.801.90
Opponent cards1.802.90
Match total3.604.803.76
Over 3.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 4.530% 3/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

AC Milan2 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 61-75
76-90
Ararat-Armenia2 games · scored 2 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
1 2 46-60
1 61-75
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 19 · conceded 11
3 1 0-15
1 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
10 2 61-75
1 3 76-90
Ararat-Armenia10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
1 3 0-15
1 4 16-30
1 3 31-45
3 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
3 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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