UEFA Europa League Matchday 8 Thu, Jan 28 · 20:00 Groupama Stadium, Décines-Charpieu
Lyon 8th · 6 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Bayer Leverkusen 2nd · 6 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel604 kmRest days5.2 · 5.2Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Lyon—%
Draw—%
Bayer Leverkusen—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)

Forecast from 13 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Lyon and Bayer Leverkusen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

LyonBayer Leverkusen
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
60 Current StrengthIn forecast 79
55 AttackIn forecast 87
56 DefenceIn forecast 79
85 Form indexContext 94
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lyon

Attack—
Defense risk—

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

LyonBayer Leverkusen
2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.00
1.53 xGVia Att/Def 3.56
1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.72
+0.97 Goals minus xGContext -0.56
100% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 100%
12.00 ShotsContext 19.50
7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 9.00
58% On target shareContext 46%
9.50 Shots in the boxContext 14.50
79% Box shareContext 73%
21% ConversionContext 15%
— OffsidesContext 3.00
12.50 Shots allowedContext 7.50
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00
4.00 BlocksContext 2.00
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
56% Save rateContext 100%
47% PossessionIn forecast 59%
419 PassesContext 597
348 Accurate passesContext 535
83% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.88 Team ratingContext 7.40
8.00 FoulsContext 15.50
11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 7.50
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.32 xGVia Att/Def 2.35
1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25
+0.58 Goals minus xGContext +0.05
90% Scored inContext 100%
30% Clean sheetsContext 40%
12.70 ShotsContext 18.50
5.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.60
42% On target shareContext 36%
9.10 Shots in the boxContext 13.30
72% Box shareContext 71%
15% ConversionContext 13%
2.57 OffsidesContext 1.89
12.40 Shots allowedContext 12.20
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56
2.30 BlocksContext 3.10
3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89
76% Save rateContext 63%
52% PossessionIn forecast 58%
457 PassesContext 537
389 Accurate passesContext 470
85% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.95 Team ratingContext 7.06
10.50 FoulsContext 11.90
13.80 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.20
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lyon
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,841 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 85 · 12 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +4.3 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Nice2–12.2 xPts
  • W15 OctH · Crystal Palace3–21.5 xPts
  • L9 OctA · Lens1–21.1 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Rennes4–01.6 xPts
  • W16 SepA · Anderlecht2–11.3 xPts
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel604 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Form 94 · 15 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · SC Freiburg2–12.1 xPts
  • W15 OctA · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts
  • W10 OctA · FSV Mainz 054–31.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · RB Leipzig2–01.7 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Celje2–02.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Lyon Bayer Leverkusen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 25Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match5.2Ligue 1 2026-2027, 23 Jan5.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 23 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km604 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways3,841 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 42 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one1.81.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lyon Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Nice (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
40R. Descamps(G)
16Abner 19M. Niakhaté 22Clinton Mata 13Z. Athekame
2M. Bidstrup 6F. Tessmann
24J. Duranville 99N. Nartey 26K. Boudache
10P. Šulc
Bayer Leverkusen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs SC Freiburg (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
1M. Flekken(G)
3Miguel Gutiérrez 2F. Medina 12E. Tapsoba 4J. Quansah
6E. Fernández 24Aleix García
9Afonso Moreira 30I. Maza 19M. Diaby
14P. Schick

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Lyon Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Bayer Leverkusen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Lyon · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
3.00
Conceded
2.00
Bayer Leverkusen · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
4.00
Conceded
0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

LyonBayer LeverkusenForecast
Scored per game 2.503.00
Conceded per game 1.500.00
Match goals 4.003.00
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 100%50%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 100%0%
Clean sheets 0%100%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games22
LyonBayer LeverkusenForecast
Scored per game 1.902.40
Conceded per game 1.001.30
Match goals 2.903.70
Over 1.5 90%100%
Over 2.5 70%70%
Over 3.5 30%60%
Both teams scored 70%60%
Clean sheets 30%40%
Failed to score 10%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

LyonBayer LeverkusenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.505.50
Corners conceded4.503.00
Match total9.008.509.76
Over 8.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 9.550% 1/20% 0/2
Over 10.50% 0/20% 0/2
Cards
Cards1.501.00
Opponent cards1.500.50
Match total3.001.503.76
Over 3.550% 1/20% 0/2
Over 4.50% 0/20% 0/2
LyonBayer LeverkusenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.406.70
Corners conceded6.003.50
Match total10.4010.209.76
Over 8.580% 8/1060% 6/10
Over 9.580% 8/1040% 4/10
Over 10.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.501.20
Opponent cards2.101.80
Match total3.603.003.76
Over 3.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 4.520% 2/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Lyon2 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
2 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
1 1 76-90
Bayer Leverkusen2 games · scored 6 · conceded 0
1 0-15
1 16-30
2 31-45
46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
3 0-15
3 3 16-30
4 2 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 2 61-75
5 2 76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
5 4 0-15
4 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
3 1 61-75
6 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures UEFA Europa League

View all fixtures →
Bournemouth Hapoel Beer Sheva Jan 2820:00 Lyon Bayer Leverkusen Jan 2820:00 Marseille Anderlecht Jan 2820:00 1899 Hoffenheim Ferencvarosi TC Jan 2820:00 Benfica AZ Alkmaar Jan 2820:00 AC Milan Ararat-Armenia Jan 2820:00 Juventus Real Sociedad Jan 2820:00 Celta Vigo Lillestrom Jan 2820:00 Plzen Jagiellonia Jan 2820:00 Red Bull Salzburg Crystal Palace Jan 2820:00 Dinamo Zagreb Sturm Graz Jan 2820:00 Sparta Praha Rennes Jan 2820:00 Sunderland Levski Sofia Jan 2820:00 OFI Lech Poznan Jan 2820:00 Union St. Gilloise Celtic Jan 2820:00 Omonia Nicosia Besiktas Jan 2820:00 Celje NEC Nijmegen Jan 2820:00 Torreense Olympiakos Piraeus Jan 2820:00