Marseille vs Anderlecht

UEFA Europa League Matchday 8 Thu, Jan 28 · 20:00 Stade Orange Vélodrome, Marseille

Marseille 31st · 0 pts · 2 played LL

VS— Compare

Anderlecht 29th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel844 kmRest days5.2 · 5.2Matches / 14d3 · 3

Real contextStrength only

Marseille—%

Draw—%

Anderlecht—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Marseille)

Forecast from 13 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Marseille

Anderlecht

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 43

48 AttackIn forecast 37

46 DefenceIn forecast 52

41 Form indexContext 59

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Marseille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Anderlecht

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Marseille

Anderlecht

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

— xGVia Att/Def 1.29

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

— Goals minus xGContext -0.79

50% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.50 ShotsContext 11.50

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

32% On target shareContext 48%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

62% Box shareContext 68%

4% ConversionContext 4%

— OffsidesContext 2.00

13.50 Shots allowedContext 13.00

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50

3.50 BlocksContext 2.00

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.00

55% Save rateContext 77%

51% PossessionIn forecast 57%

488 PassesContext 519

423 Accurate passesContext 452

87% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.40 Team ratingContext 6.86

13.50 FoulsContext 13.50

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 16.50

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

1.83 xGVia Att/Def 0.95

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.45

70% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 60%

14.40 ShotsContext 11.88

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

38% On target shareContext 38%

9.78 Shots in the boxContext 7.63

63% Box shareContext 61%

13% ConversionContext 8%

1.71 OffsidesContext 1.50

16.20 Shots allowedContext 11.25

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.63

4.78 BlocksContext 1.90

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.75

70% Save rateContext 81%

55% PossessionIn forecast 60%

547 PassesContext 533

481 Accurate passesContext 459

88% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.93

11.20 FoulsContext 12.90

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Marseille LLWLW

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km4,798 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

Form 41 · 6 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

W18 OctA · Angers5–21.7 xPts
L15 OctH · Olympiakos Piraeus0–11.3 xPts
W11 OctA · Estac Troyes2–01.8 xPts
L20 SepH · Paris Saint Germain1–20.8 xPts
L17 SepA · Besiktas1–41.1 xPts

Anderlecht WLWWL

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel844 km312 km in 14d

Schedule load27%Moderate

Form 59 · 9 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected

L15 OctA · Dinamo Zagreb0–11.2 xPts
W10 OctA · Cercle Brugge2–11.6 xPts
W19 SepH · Zulte Waregem3–01.7 xPts
L16 SepH · Lyon1–21.5 xPts
W11 SepA · KV Mechelen1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Marseille	Anderlecht
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Moderate · 27
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.2Ligue 1 2026-2027, 23 Jan	5.2Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 23 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	844 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	4,798 km	312 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 4	2 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	1.8	1.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Marseille Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Angers (A) 5–2, 18 Oct

1J. de Lange(G)

33Emerson 19G. Kondogbia 4C. Egan-Riley 22T. Weah

6Tochukwu Nnadi

14Igor Paixão 8H. Abdelli 77A. Harit

9A. Gouiri

Anderlecht Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Dinamo Zagreb (A) 0–1, 15 Oct

26C. Coosemans(G)

5O. Reabciuk 27L. Pétrot 12A. Omobamidele 50K. Barry

19Thelo Aasgaard 29M. Stroeykens

83T. Degreef 18L. Ambros 10M. Winkler

9M. CvetkoviÄ

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Marseille Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Anderlecht Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Marseille · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Anderlecht · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Marseille	Anderlecht
Scored per game	0.50	0.50
Conceded per game	2.50	1.50
Match goals	3.00	2.00
Over 1.5	50%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%
Over 3.5	50%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	2	2

	Marseille	Anderlecht
Scored per game	1.80	1.40
Conceded per game	1.60	0.70
Match goals	3.40	2.10
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	60%
Over 3.5	50%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	20%
Clean sheets	20%	60%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Marseille	Anderlecht	League
Corners
Corners won	6.50	4.00
Corners conceded	2.00	5.00
Match total	8.50	9.00	9.76
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	3.50	3.00	3.76
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/2

	Marseille	Anderlecht	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	5.40
Corners conceded	4.50	3.80
Match total	9.20	9.20	9.76
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.20
Opponent cards	2.10	1.80
Match total	3.80	4.00	3.76
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.