Besiktas vs Crystal Palace

UEFA Europa League Matchday 3 Thu, Oct 22 · 20:00 Tüpraş Stadyumu, İstanbul

Besiktas 4th · 6 pts · 2 played WW

VS— Compare

Crystal Palace 15th · 3 pts · 2 played WL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Besiktas are slight favourites.

Crystal Palace are the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 50). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Besiktas. Besiktas have 3.1 days of rest, Crystal Palace 4.3 and have to travel 2,498 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel2,498 kmRest days3.1 · 4.3Matches / 14d3 · 3

Besiktas44%

Draw23%

Crystal Palace33%

Expected goals 1.95 – 1.67

Besiktas35%

Draw27%

Crystal Palace37%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.36

Besiktas44%

Draw23%

Crystal Palace33%

Expected goals 1.95 – 1.67

Besiktas36%

Draw23%

Crystal Palace41%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.88

Besiktas43%

Draw23%

Crystal Palace34%

Expected goals 1.84 – 1.63

Over 2.5 70% Both score 70% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

18°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 1%
Wind 4 km/h
Humidity 71%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Besiktas

Crystal Palace

50 L90 StrengthIn forecast 64

50 Current StrengthIn forecast 64

60 AttackIn forecast 64

48 DefenceIn forecast 54

62 Form indexContext 64

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Besiktas

Attack−20%

Defense risk+43%

Crystal Palace

Attack+32%

Defense risk−8%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Besiktas

Crystal Palace

3.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

100% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

18.50 ShotsContext 14.00

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

32% On target shareContext 36%

14.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.50

78% Box shareContext 76%

19% ConversionContext 21%

— OffsidesContext 2.00

13.50 Shots allowedContext 14.00

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.50 BlocksContext 4.50

1.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

50% Save rateContext 70%

51% PossessionIn forecast 51%

473 PassesContext 515

395 Accurate passesContext 447

83% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.05 Team ratingContext 6.90

9.00 FoulsContext 9.50

15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 5.50

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

2.06 xGVia Att/Def 1.52

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.86

+0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.08

70% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

16.75 ShotsContext 11.00

6.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

37% On target shareContext 36%

10.88 Shots in the boxContext 7.80

64% Box shareContext 71%

14% ConversionContext 15%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.50

11.25 Shots allowedContext 16.30

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

3.38 BlocksContext 4.70

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

64% Save rateContext 63%

59% PossessionIn forecast 45%

481 PassesContext 416

410 Accurate passesContext 341

85% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.77

11.44 FoulsContext 10.50

15.22 Fouls sufferedContext 9.70

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Besiktas WLWWL

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km5,434 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

Form 62 · 9 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected

L19 OctA · Trabzonspor0–21.5 xPts
W15 OctA · 1899 Hoffenheim3–21.3 xPts
W11 OctH · Kocaelispor2–12.2 xPts
L20 SepA · Amed2–31.4 xPts
W17 SepH · Marseille4–11.6 xPts

Crystal Palace WDWLL

Rest4.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel2,498 km1,621 km in 14d

Schedule load40%High

Form 64 · 7 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected

L18 OctA · Brighton0–50.6 xPts
L15 OctA · Lyon2–31.3 xPts
W11 OctH · Nottingham Forest3–11.4 xPts
D20 SepA · Leeds0–00.9 xPts
W17 SepH · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Besiktas	Crystal Palace
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 33	High · 40
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 19 Oct	4.3Premier League 2026-2027, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,498 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	5,434 km	1,621 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 3	1 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Besiktas Last XI · not confirmed

4-1-4-1 · vs Trabzonspor (A) 0–2, 19 Oct

1A. Nübel(G)

33R. Yılmaz 53E. Topçu 12E. Agbadou 62A. Murillo

6S. Özcan

19L. Trossard 21F. Miretti 15Junior Olaitan 18V. Černý

28D. Vlahović

Crystal Palace Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Brighton (A) 0–5, 18 Oct

44W. Benítez(G)

21H. Ahanor 26Chris Richards 6J. Canvot

3T. Mitchell 23Q. Timber 20A. Wharton 25A. Khalaili

10Yeremy Pino 18Daichi Kamada

22J. Strand Larsen

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Besiktas No reported absences

Crystal Palace No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Besiktas+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Crystal Palace+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Besiktas · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 4.00
Conceded: 1.00

Crystal Palace · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Besiktas	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	3.50	3.00
Conceded per game	1.50	1.50
Match goals	5.00	4.50	3.62
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	70%
Over 3.5	100%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	50%	70%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	2	2

	Besiktas	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	1.60
Conceded per game	1.40	2.20
Match goals	3.60	3.80	3.62
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	80%	70%
Over 3.5	40%	70%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	70%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Besiktas	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.50
Corners conceded	5.50	5.00
Match total	9.50	9.50	9.76
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.50
Opponent cards	2.50	1.50
Match total	4.00	3.00	3.76
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2

	Besiktas	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	5.78	3.89
Corners conceded	4.44	5.22
Match total	10.22	9.11	9.76
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.60
Opponent cards	2.60	2.00
Match total	4.80	3.60	3.76
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.