Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

Bundesliga Gameweek 9 Fri, Nov 6 · 19:30 Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

Hamburger SV 9th · 9 pts · 6 played LLWWW

VS— Compare

Borussia Mönchengladbach 18th · 0 pts · 6 played LLLLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Hamburger SV are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Hamburger SV. Hamburger SV have 5.1 days of rest, Borussia Mönchengladbach 6.2 and have to travel 357 km.

Away travel357 kmRest days5.1 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 1

Hamburger SV54%

Draw22%

Borussia Mönchengladbach24%

Expected goals 2.09 – 1.33

Hamburger SV46%

Draw26%

Borussia Mönchengladbach28%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.15

Hamburger SV54%

Draw22%

Borussia Mönchengladbach24%

Expected goals 2.09 – 1.33

Hamburger SV46%

Draw23%

Borussia Mönchengladbach31%

Expected goals 1.86 – 1.49

Hamburger SV54%

Draw22%

Borussia Mönchengladbach23%

Expected goals 2.03 – 1.27

Over 2.5 66% Both score 65% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Hamburg)

Forecast from 22 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Trend Borussia Mönchengladbach 67% Both teams scored Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Hamburger SV

Borussia Mönchengladbach

40 L90 StrengthIn forecast 36

40 Current StrengthIn forecast 36

37 AttackIn forecast 34

43 DefenceIn forecast 21

70 Form indexContext 7

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Hamburger SV

Attack+33%

Defense risk−22%

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Attack+7%

Defense risk−22%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Hamburger SV

Borussia Mönchengladbach

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.33

2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 3.33

1.04 xGVia Att/Def 1.40

1.83 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.49

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

50% Scored inContext 67%

17% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.00 ShotsContext 15.17

3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40

33% On target shareContext 30%

6.33 Shots in the boxContext 9.83

56% Box shareContext 64%

9% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 3.00

19.17 Shots allowedContext 18.17

5.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 8.83

5.33 BlocksContext 3.20

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.50

62% Save rateContext 62%

40% PossessionIn forecast 48%

346 PassesContext 404

270 Accurate passesContext 328

78% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.54 Team ratingContext 6.46

14.17 FoulsContext 14.83

12.83 Fouls sufferedContext 10.17

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.83

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30

1.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.26

1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.04

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.14

70% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.60 ShotsContext 13.50

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44

35% On target shareContext 30%

6.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.80

59% Box shareContext 65%

11% ConversionContext 10%

1.86 OffsidesContext 2.78

16.40 Shots allowedContext 15.10

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.10

4.56 BlocksContext 2.88

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.80

64% Save rateContext 68%

40% PossessionIn forecast 50%

348 PassesContext 432

275 Accurate passesContext 356

79% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.63

12.40 FoulsContext 12.60

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Hamburger SV LLWWW

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,225 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected

W17 OctH · VfB Stuttgart1–01.0 xPts
W10 OctA · 1899 Hoffenheim3–20.9 xPts
W19 SepH · 1.FC Köln2–11.5 xPts
L13 SepA · RB Leipzig0–50.6 xPts
L6 SepH · FSV Mainz 050–51.4 xPts

Borussia Mönchengladbach LLLLL

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel357 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 7 · 0 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -6.2 vs expected

L18 OctH · 1899 Hoffenheim1–21.5 xPts
L11 OctA · 1.FC Köln1–21.1 xPts
L19 SepH · FSV Mainz 053–41.3 xPts
L12 SepA · SC Freiburg0–50.7 xPts
L5 SepH · SV Elversberg3–41.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Hamburger SV	Borussia Mönchengladbach
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 1 Nov	6.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	357 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,225 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	15.9	14.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Hamburger SV Last XI · not confirmed

3-5-2 · vs VfB Stuttgart (H) 1–0, 17 Oct

1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)

17W. Omari 33S. Bornauw 24N. Capaldo

37Louis Lemke 28M. Muheim 4B. Nadir 5M. Adeline 3D. Møller Wolfe

15Y. Poulsen 20Fábio Vieira

Borussia Mönchengladbach Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim (H) 1–2, 18 Oct

1M. Nicolas(G)

26L. Ullrich 2F. Chiarodia 4K. Diks 16P. Sander

36W. Mohya 10F. Neuhaus 47Z. Uno 29J. Scally

3I. Lidberg 38A. Bolin

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Hamburger SV No reported absences

Borussia Mönchengladbach No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Hamburger SV+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Borussia Mönchengladbach+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Hamburger SV · Home 2.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-3
Scored: 0.33
Conceded: 3.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Hamburger SV	Borussia Mönchengladbach
1899 Hoffenheim	W 3–2 A	L 1–2 H
1.FC Köln	W 2–1 H	L 1–2 A
RB Leipzig	L 0–5 A	L 0–3 A
FSV Mainz 05	L 0–5 H	L 3–4 H
Points	6 of 12 · 1.50 per game	0 of 12 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Hamburger SV wins2 draws0 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins

Goals per game0.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 100%

17 Jan 2026Hamburger SV0–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
24 Aug 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach0–0Hamburger SV

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Hamburger SV	Borussia Mönchengladbach	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.33
Conceded per game	2.50	3.33
Match goals	3.50	4.67	3.42
Over 1.5	83%	100%
Over 2.5	67%	100%	66%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	33%	67%	65%
Clean sheets	17%	0%
Failed to score	50%	33%
Games	6	6

	Hamburger SV	Borussia Mönchengladbach	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.40
Conceded per game	2.10	2.30
Match goals	3.40	3.70	3.42
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	80%	66%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	65%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Hamburger SV	Borussia Mönchengladbach	League
Corners
Corners won	3.83	6.00
Corners conceded	6.00	5.50
Match total	9.83	11.50	10.72
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	83% 5/6
Over 9.5	50% 3/6	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	33% 2/6	50% 3/6
Cards
Cards	1.33	3.00
Opponent cards	2.17	1.83
Match total	3.50	4.83	3.51
Over 3.5	50% 3/6	83% 5/6
Over 4.5	0% 0/6	33% 2/6

	Hamburger SV	Borussia Mönchengladbach	League
Corners
Corners won	3.60	4.60
Corners conceded	6.40	5.30
Match total	10.00	9.90	10.72
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	3.10
Opponent cards	2.60	2.10
Match total	4.10	5.20	3.51
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.