Bundesliga Gameweek 9 Sat, Nov 7 · 14:30 BVB Stadion Dortmund, Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund 2nd · 14 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
SV Elversberg 6th · 10 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites.

Borussia Dortmund are the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 42). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for SV Elversberg. Borussia Dortmund have 2.8 days of rest, SV Elversberg 7.8 and have to travel 246 km.

Away travel246 kmRest days2.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d3 · 1
Borussia Dortmund72%
Draw16%
SV Elversberg12%
Expected goals 2.65 – 1.01
Borussia Dortmund70%
Draw19%
SV Elversberg11%
Expected goals 2.24 – 0.80
Borussia Dortmund72%
Draw16%
SV Elversberg12%
Expected goals 2.65 – 1.01
Borussia Dortmund64%
Draw19%
SV Elversberg16%
Expected goals 2.36 – 1.13
Borussia Dortmund70%
Draw18%
SV Elversberg12%
Expected goals 2.43 – 0.94
Over 2.5 71% Both score 59% Likeliest score 2–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Dortmund)

Forecast from 23 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Borussia Dortmund and SV Elversberg. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Borussia DortmundSV Elversberg
81 L90 StrengthIn forecast 42
80 Current StrengthIn forecast 42
69 AttackIn forecast 44
80 DefenceIn forecast 37
61 Form indexContext 60
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Borussia Dortmund

Attack+14%
Defense risk−14%

SV Elversberg

Attack−26%
Defense risk+16%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Borussia DortmundSV Elversberg
1.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
0.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.83
1.76 xGVia Att/Def 1.45
0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.17
+0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.55
83% Scored inContext 67%
67% Clean sheetsContext 17%
15.17 ShotsContext 11.17
5.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67
34% On target shareContext 42%
10.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.17
73% Box shareContext 72%
12% ConversionContext 18%
1.50 OffsidesContext 3.20
11.67 Shots allowedContext 22.00
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33
2.80 BlocksContext 8.50
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.17
78% Save rateContext 59%
55% PossessionIn forecast 44%
530 PassesContext 382
450 Accurate passesContext 303
85% Pass accuracyContext 80%
7.04 Team ratingContext 6.82
11.17 FoulsContext 11.67
11.83 Fouls sufferedContext 13.17
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.17
0.17 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80
1.85 xGVia Att/Def 1.46
0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63
+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.94
80% Scored inContext 80%
50% Clean sheetsContext 20%
14.70 ShotsContext 11.20
5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20
39% On target shareContext 38%
10.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.56
72% Box shareContext 66%
13% ConversionContext 21%
1.63 OffsidesContext 2.86
11.20 Shots allowedContext 16.90
4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60
2.78 BlocksContext 6.33
3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89
77% Save rateContext 59%
54% PossessionIn forecast 48%
530 PassesContext 387
454 Accurate passesContext 309
86% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.99 Team ratingContext 6.83
10.90 FoulsContext 11.50
10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Borussia Dortmund
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km955 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Form 61 · 8 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Union Berlin0–01.9 xPts
  • L14 OctA · Bodo/Glimt0–11.6 xPts
  • D9 OctH · Werder Bremen2–22.3 xPts
  • W19 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–01.6 xPts
  • W12 SepH · SC Paderborn 073–02.3 xPts
SV Elversberg
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel246 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 60 · 7 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · FC Augsburg4–31.4 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Union Berlin0–11.3 xPts
  • D20 SepA · FC Schalke 040–01.1 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Bayern München1–20.5 xPts
  • W5 SepA · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–31.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Borussia Dortmund SV Elversberg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 23Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 4 Nov7.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 30 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km246 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways955 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 3 / 60 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one1414

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Borussia Dortmund Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Union Berlin (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck 3W. Anton 22J. Gadou
24D. Svensson 8F. Nmecha 7J. Bellingham 26J. Ryerson
14M. Beier 18E. Nwaneri
9S. Guirassy
SV Elversberg Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs FC Augsburg (H) 4–3, 17 Oct
20N. Kristof(G)
21L. Günther 31M. Rohr 19L. Pinckert 30J. Gyamerah
8Ł. Poręba 43F. Keidel
7M. Krattenmacher 10N. Darvich 25L. Petkov
42David Mokwa

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Borussia Dortmund No reported absences
SV Elversberg No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Borussia Dortmund+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • SV Elversberg+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Borussia Dortmund · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
2.33
Conceded
0.67
SV Elversberg · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
1.33
Conceded
1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentBorussia DortmundSV Elversberg
Union Berlin D 0–0 A L 0–1 A
Points1 of 3 · 1.00 per game0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Borussia DortmundSV ElversbergForecast
Scored per game 1.832.00
Conceded per game 0.671.83
Match goals 2.503.83 3.65
Over 1.5 67%67%
Over 2.5 50%67% 71%
Over 3.5 33%50%
Both teams scored 33%67% 59%
Clean sheets 67%17%
Failed to score 17%33%
Games66
Borussia DortmundSV ElversbergForecast
Scored per game 1.902.00
Conceded per game 0.901.83
Match goals 2.803.83 3.65
Over 1.5 70%67%
Over 2.5 50%67% 71%
Over 3.5 40%50%
Both teams scored 40%67% 59%
Clean sheets 50%17%
Failed to score 20%33%
Games106

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Borussia DortmundSV ElversbergLeague
Corners
Corners won4.833.67
Corners conceded4.678.00
Match total9.5011.6710.72
Over 8.567% 4/667% 4/6
Over 9.567% 4/667% 4/6
Over 10.533% 2/650% 3/6
Cards
Cards2.672.17
Opponent cards2.001.83
Match total4.674.003.51
Over 3.567% 4/650% 3/6
Over 4.550% 3/633% 2/6
Borussia DortmundSV ElversbergLeague
Corners
Corners won5.804.00
Corners conceded4.506.20
Match total10.3010.2010.72
Over 8.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Over 9.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 10.540% 4/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards2.201.90
Opponent cards1.502.30
Match total3.704.203.51
Over 3.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 4.530% 3/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Borussia Dortmund6 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
2 0-15
16-30
1 1 31-45
1 46-60
3 61-75
5 2 76-90
SV Elversberg6 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
4 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
2 31-45
1 1 46-60
2 1 61-75
3 5 76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
2 1 0-15
16-30
3 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
8 4 76-90
SV Elversberg10 games · scored 24 · conceded 18
7 3 0-15
5 2 16-30
3 3 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 2 61-75
5 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Hamburger SV Borussia Mönchengladbach Nov 619:30 FSV Mainz 05 Bayern München Nov 714:30 Borussia Dortmund SV Elversberg Nov 714:30 RB Leipzig FC Augsburg Nov 714:30 SC Paderborn 07 Eintracht Frankfurt Nov 714:30 VfB Stuttgart Werder Bremen Nov 717:30 1.FC Köln Bayer Leverkusen Nov 814:30 SC Freiburg Union Berlin Nov 816:30 1899 Hoffenheim FC Schalke 04 Nov 818:30