UEFA Champions League Matchday 7 Wed, Jan 20 · 20:00 Leipzig Stadium, Leipzig
RB Leipzig 21st · 3 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Shakhtar Donetsk 11th · 4 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,274 kmRest days4.2 · 42.1Matches / 14d3 · 0
Real contextStrength only
RB Leipzig—%
Draw—%
Shakhtar Donetsk—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Leipzig)

Forecast from 5 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for RB Leipzig and Shakhtar Donetsk. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

RB LeipzigShakhtar Donetsk
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
67 Current StrengthIn forecast 57
76 AttackIn forecast 54
53 DefenceIn forecast 62
78 Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

RB Leipzig

Attack—
Defense risk—

Shakhtar Donetsk

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

RB LeipzigShakhtar Donetsk
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
100% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 0%
16.50 ShotsContext 10.00
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00
30% On target shareContext 30%
11.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.00
68% Box shareContext 63%
6% ConversionContext 20%
— OffsidesContext —
11.50 Shots allowedContext 11.50
5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.50
1.50 BlocksContext 3.50
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.50
64% Save rateContext 60%
47% PossessionIn forecast 50%
414 PassesContext 418
361 Accurate passesContext 358
87% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.71 Team ratingContext 6.63
11.00 FoulsContext 15.50
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 15.50
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 3.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.92 xGVia Att/Def 1.04
1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27
+0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.66
90% Scored inContext 100%
40% Clean sheetsContext 30%
16.40 ShotsContext 12.88
5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
36% On target shareContext 31%
11.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
69% Box shareContext 62%
13% ConversionContext 15%
1.29 OffsidesContext 2.80
14.20 Shots allowedContext 10.38
6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
3.00 BlocksContext 2.38
4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38
69% Save rateContext 59%
54% PossessionIn forecast 56%
508 PassesContext 455
443 Accurate passesContext 400
87% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.97 Team ratingContext 6.78
9.30 FoulsContext 11.50
12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.75
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

RB Leipzig
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,187 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 78 · 9 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Bayern München1–60.5 xPts
  • W13 OctH · PSV Eindhoven1–01.6 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Eintracht Frankfurt6–02.0 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–21.1 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Hamburger SV5–02.2 xPts
Shakhtar Donetsk
Rest42.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,274 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 66 · 4 pts vs 2.2 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
  • W14 OctH · AEK Athens FC3–11.6 xPts
  • D10 SepA · PSV Eindhoven1–10.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
RB Leipzig Shakhtar Donetsk
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 15Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 16 Jan42.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 9 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,274 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,187 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 30 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one2.87

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

RB Leipzig Last XI · not confirmed
4-5-1 · vs Bayern München (A) 1–6, 17 Oct
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum 23C. Lukeba 4V. Orbán 16L. Klostermann
7A. Nusa 6E. Banzuzi 21N. El Aynaoui 20R. Reitz 10B. Gruda
28C. Nkunku
Shakhtar Donetsk Last XI · not confirmed
4-1-4-1 · vs AEK Athens FC (H) 3–1, 14 Oct
31D. Riznyk(G)
13Pedro Henrique 22M. Matviienko 5V. Bondar 17Vinícius Tobias
27O. Ocheretko
11Newerton 6Marlon Gomes 10Pedrinho 30Alisson Santana
9Kauã Elias

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
RB Leipzig Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Shakhtar Donetsk Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

RB Leipzig · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.00
Shakhtar Donetsk · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-1-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentRB LeipzigShakhtar Donetsk
PSV Eindhoven W 1–0 H D 1–1 A
Points3 of 3 · 3.00 per game1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 RB Leipzig wins0 draws1 Shakhtar Donetsk wins
Goals per game2.50 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%
  • 2 Nov 2022Shakhtar Donetsk0–4RB Leipzig
  • 6 Sep 2022RB Leipzig1–4Shakhtar Donetsk

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

RB LeipzigShakhtar DonetskForecast
Scored per game 1.002.00
Conceded per game 2.001.00
Match goals 3.003.00
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 50%100%
Clean sheets 50%0%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games22
RB LeipzigShakhtar DonetskForecast
Scored per game 2.102.00
Conceded per game 2.001.00
Match goals 4.103.00
Over 1.5 90%100%
Over 2.5 80%50%
Over 3.5 60%50%
Both teams scored 50%100%
Clean sheets 40%0%
Failed to score 10%0%
Games102

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

RB LeipzigShakhtar DonetskLeague
Corners
Corners won5.004.00
Corners conceded5.002.50
Match total10.006.509.71
Over 8.550% 1/20% 0/2
Over 9.550% 1/20% 0/2
Over 10.550% 1/20% 0/2
Cards
Cards2.003.50
Opponent cards2.003.50
Match total4.007.003.80
Over 3.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 4.550% 1/2100% 2/2
RB LeipzigShakhtar DonetskLeague
Corners
Corners won4.805.29
Corners conceded5.703.00
Match total10.508.299.71
Over 8.570% 7/1029% 2/7
Over 9.550% 5/1029% 2/7
Over 10.550% 5/1029% 2/7
Cards
Cards1.302.50
Opponent cards1.302.40
Match total2.604.903.80
Over 3.530% 3/1060% 6/10
Over 4.520% 2/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

RB Leipzig2 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
1 0-15
16-30
1 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
Shakhtar Donetsk2 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
0-15
1 16-30
2 31-45
1 46-60
61-75
2 76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 21 · conceded 20
2 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
4 3 31-45
4 5 46-60
4 3 61-75
4 3 76-90
Shakhtar Donetsk10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
2 0-15
2 16-30
4 1 31-45
3 3 46-60
4 2 61-75
6 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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