Bournemouth vs Brentford – 3 Mar 2026

Premier League Gameweek 29 Tue, Mar 3 · 19:30 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset

Bournemouth 10th · 39 pts · 28 played WDWDD

0–0Full time

Brentford 7th · 43 pts · 28 played WWDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Brentford. Bournemouth had 3.3 days of rest, Brentford 3.2 and had to travel 139 km.

Away travel139 kmRest days3.3 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Bournemouth39%

Draw25%

Brentford37%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.54

Bournemouth43%

Draw27%

Brentford31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.21

Bournemouth39%

Draw25%

Brentford36%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.54

Bournemouth31%

Draw24%

Brentford44%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.73

Bournemouth38%

Draw26%

Brentford36%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.46

Over 2.5 61% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)

No weather data yet

RefereeCraig Pawson

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 142

Team strength

Bournemouth

Brentford

74 L90 StrengthIn forecast 75

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 75

83 AttackIn forecast 73

82 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bournemouth

Brentford

1.57 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.57

1.64 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.43

1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.63

1.53 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

+0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

82% Scored inContext 71%

25% Clean sheetsContext 21%

13.68 ShotsContext 10.68

4.93 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.11

36% On target shareContext 39%

8.41 Shots in the boxContext 8.24

59% Box shareContext 73%

12% ConversionContext 15%

2.19 OffsidesContext 2.09

12.82 Shots allowedContext 12.54

4.68 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.04

3.96 BlocksContext 4.29

3.31 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.96

67% Save rateContext 69%

50% PossessionIn forecast 47%

408 PassesContext 391

326 Accurate passesContext 311

80% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.85

12.25 FoulsContext 11.11

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.48

2.39 Yellow cardsContext 1.96

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 28 and 28 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.65 xGVia Att/Def 2.01

1.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

90% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.20 ShotsContext 13.20

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

37% On target shareContext 38%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 9.90

55% Box shareContext 75%

12% ConversionContext 14%

2.25 OffsidesContext 2.13

15.00 Shots allowedContext 11.70

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

4.50 BlocksContext 3.60

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

71% Save rateContext 70%

46% PossessionIn forecast 52%

388 PassesContext 442

301 Accurate passesContext 361

78% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.89

12.60 FoulsContext 10.20

9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.30

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bournemouth

Rest3.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km301 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brentford

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel139 km576 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bournemouth	Brentford
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.3Premier League 2025-2026, 28 Feb	3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 28 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	139 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	301 km	576 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	10.8	13

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 5M. Senesi 23J. Hill 20Álex Jiménez

10R. Christie 12T. Adams

16M. Tavernier 8A. Scott 37Rayan

9Evanilson

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

3R. Henry 22N. Collins 4S. van den Berg 33M. Kayode

8M. Jensen 6J. Henderson

7K. Schade 24M. Damsgaard 19D. Ouattara

9Thiago

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bournemouth Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brentford Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bournemouth-0.7 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Brentford+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Bournemouth · Home 1.71points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 6-6-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.07

Brentford · Away 1.29points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 6-0-8
Scored: 1.43
Conceded: 1.79

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Bournemouth	Brentford
Sunderland	D 1–1 HL 2–3 A	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A
West Ham	D 0–0 AD 2–2 H	W 2–0 A
Everton	W 2–1 AL 0–1 H	W 4–2 A
Aston Villa	D 1–1 HL 0–4 A	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H
Wolves	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H	W 2–0 A
Liverpool	W 3–2 HL 2–4 A	W 3–2 H
Brighton	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A
Tottenham	W 3–2 HW 1–0 A	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A
Arsenal	L 2–3 H	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
Chelsea	D 2–2 AD 0–0 H	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H
Burnley	D 1–1 H	W 4–3 AW 3–1 H
Manchester United	D 4–4 A	W 3–1 H
Manchester City	L 1–3 A	L 0–1 H
Nottingham Forest	W 2–0 H	L 0–2 HL 1–3 A
Crystal Palace	D 3–3 A	L 0–2 A
Fulham	W 3–1 H	L 1–3 A
Leeds	D 2–2 A	D 1–1 H
Newcastle	D 0–0 H	W 3–2 AW 3–1 H
Points	39 of 81 · 1.44 per game	40 of 81 · 1.48 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

0 Bournemouth wins2 draws5 Brentford wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.14 Over 2.571% Both scored71% Clean sheets14% · 29%

27 Dec 2025Brentford4–1Bournemouth
15 Mar 2025Bournemouth1–2Brentford
9 Nov 2024Brentford3–2Bournemouth
11 May 2024Bournemouth1–2Brentford
2 Sep 2023Brentford2–2Bournemouth
14 Jan 2023Brentford2–0Bournemouth

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bournemouth	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.57	1.57
Conceded per game	1.64	1.43
Match goals	3.21	3.00	3.13
Over 1.5	79%	86%
Over 2.5	57%	50%	61%
Over 3.5	50%	39%
Both teams scored	68%	54%	63%
Clean sheets	25%	21%
Failed to score	18%	29%
Games	28	28

	Bournemouth	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.60
Conceded per game	1.30	1.40
Match goals	3.00	3.00	3.13
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	61%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	80%	40%	63%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	10%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bournemouth	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	5.62	5.26
Corners conceded	5.69	5.15
Match total	11.31	10.41	10.01
Over 8.5	81% 21/26	78% 21/27
Over 9.5	69% 18/26	70% 19/27
Over 10.5	58% 15/26	59% 16/27
Cards
Cards	2.43	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	1.75
Match total	4.43	3.75	3.91
Over 3.5	68% 19/28	57% 16/28
Over 4.5	46% 13/28	39% 11/28

	Bournemouth	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	5.70
Corners conceded	6.90	5.10
Match total	12.40	10.80	10.01
Over 8.5	100% 10/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	90% 9/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.70	1.90
Opponent cards	1.70	1.20
Match total	4.40	3.10	3.91
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Craig Pawson 142 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.92league 3.77

Red cards0.11league 0.12

Cards 5+39%league 39%

Fouls22.7league 21.5

Penalties0.23league 0.21

Home wins41%league 43%

Bournemouth8 with this referee

Record4-1-3 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.4 Pens for · against1 · 1

W25 Jan 25H · Nottingham Forest5–02
W22 Dec 24A · Manchester United3–03
W6 Dec 23A · Crystal Palace2–03
L4 Nov 23A · Manchester City1–61
L4 Feb 23A · Brighton0–11

Brentford4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 1

W27 Sep 25H · Manchester United3–12
D25 May 25A · Wolves1–11
L16 Sep 23A · Newcastle0–15
W2 Jan 22H · Aston Villa2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.