Sunderland
Attack−5%
Defense risk+10%
Our take
It looks too close to call.
Chelsea are the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 58). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sunderland. Sunderland have 2.8 days of rest, Chelsea 8.1 and have to travel 387 km.
Away travel387 kmRest days2.8 · 8.1Matches / 14d3 · 1
Sunderland34%
Draw25%
Chelsea41%
Sunderland31%
Draw27%
Chelsea41%
Sunderland34%
Draw25%
Chelsea41%
Sunderland27%
Draw24%
Chelsea49%
Sunderland34%
Draw26%
Chelsea40%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 1 day ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sunderland)
Forecast from 24 Oct
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Sunderland and Chelsea. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Chelsea
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Alert
Sunderland
2.2
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Chelsea
2.4
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Chelsea
−0.30
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.20xG against1.50
-
Alert
Sunderland
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
-
Alert
Sunderland
2.2
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Chelsea
1.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Chelsea
−0.30
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.20xG against1.50
-
Alert
Sunderland
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
SunderlandChelsea
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
77
57
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
62
AttackIn forecast
77
59
DefenceIn forecast
74
56
Form indexContext
69
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisChelsea
Attack+4%
Defense risk−13%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
SunderlandChelsea
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.43
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
2.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
-0.65
Goals minus xGContext
+1.00
57%
Scored inContext
86%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
11.57
ShotsContext
14.29
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.57
35%
On target shareContext
39%
7.29
Shots in the boxContext
9.14
62%
Box shareContext
63%
7%
ConversionContext
17%
2.83
OffsidesContext
1.60
14.57
Shots allowedContext
12.43
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.86
4.29
BlocksContext
3.67
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.29
46%
Save rateContext
73%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
400
PassesContext
432
316
Accurate passesContext
361
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.62
Team ratingContext
7.09
11.43
FoulsContext
9.29
14.14
Fouls sufferedContext
11.71
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.56
Goals minus xGContext
+0.90
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.40
ShotsContext
12.30
4.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
30%
On target shareContext
40%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
65%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
17%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.50
12.40
Shots allowedContext
12.50
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
3.90
BlocksContext
3.44
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
52%
Save rateContext
74%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
395
PassesContext
442
316
Accurate passesContext
370
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.71
Team ratingContext
7.00
12.70
FoulsContext
10.50
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sunderland
WLLWL
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km556 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
Chelsea
LDLWW
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel387 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 69 · 7 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sunderland |
Chelsea |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 5 Nov | 8.1Premier League 2026-2027, 31 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 387 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 556 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sunderland
Last XI · not confirmed
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
15O. Alderete
4K. Danso
20N. Mukiele
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
28E. Le Fée
11C. Rigg
32T. Hume
57T. Tuterov
Chelsea
Last XI · not confirmed
1E. Martínez(G)
21J. Hato
6L. Colwill
5M. Lacroix
34J. Acheampong
14J. Henderson
25M. Caicedo
17M. Rogers
10C. Palmer
7Pedro Neto
9João Pedro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sunderland
No reported absences
Chelsea
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Sunderland+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Chelsea+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Sunderland · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Chelsea · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Sunderland | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | L 0–2 A | W 5–1 H |
| Brighton | L 0–2 H | W 4–3 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Brentford | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Fulham | W 1–0 H | W 3–2 A |
| Points | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game | 9 of 15 · 1.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Sunderland wins0 draws0 Chelsea wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 24 May 2026Sunderland2–1Chelsea
- 25 Oct 2025Chelsea1–2Sunderland
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sunderland | Chelsea | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 2.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 4.29 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 86% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Sunderland | Chelsea | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.80 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sunderland | Chelsea | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.29 | 5.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.14 | 5.43 | |
| Match total | 8.43 | 11.29 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 2/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.85 | 4.86 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Sunderland | Chelsea | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 10.10 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 5.70 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Sunderland7 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Chelsea7 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
7
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
6
46-60
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
Chelsea10 games · scored 21 · conceded 17
7
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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