Leeds
Attack+6%
Defense risk−11%
Our take
Leeds are slight favourites.
Leeds are the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 61). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Tottenham. Leeds have 6.9 days of rest, Tottenham 6.8 and have to travel 272 km.
Away travel272 kmRest days6.9 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Leeds51%
Draw24%
Tottenham25%
Leeds52%
Draw25%
Tottenham23%
Leeds51%
Draw24%
Tottenham25%
Leeds43%
Draw25%
Tottenham32%
Leeds51%
Draw25%
Tottenham24%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 11 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)
Forecast from 23 Oct
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Leeds and Tottenham. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Leeds
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Leeds
−0.36
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.29xG against1.65
-
Insight
Leeds
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Leeds
Tottenham
73
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
73
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
69
AttackIn forecast
56
77
DefenceIn forecast
74
64
Form indexContext
58
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTottenham
Attack−4%
Defense risk−4%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
LeedsTottenham
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
0.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
86%
Scored inContext
43%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
12.00
ShotsContext
14.14
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
33%
On target shareContext
27%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.57
65%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
6%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.86
14.00
Shots allowedContext
14.14
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.71
5.17
BlocksContext
4.00
3.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
86%
Save rateContext
63%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
385
PassesContext
535
302
Accurate passesContext
470
78%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.71
FoulsContext
13.86
11.86
Fouls sufferedContext
13.71
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.29
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
80%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.50
ShotsContext
14.40
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
31%
On target shareContext
24%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
62%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
6%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.44
14.90
Shots allowedContext
12.90
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
4.89
BlocksContext
3.40
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
77%
Save rateContext
64%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
376
PassesContext
510
292
Accurate passesContext
443
78%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.90
FoulsContext
14.20
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Leeds
DWDLD
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km933 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected
Tottenham
DDLDW
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel272 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 58 · 6 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -0.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Leeds |
Tottenham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Premier League 2026-2027, 31 Oct | 6.8Premier League 2026-2027, 31 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 272 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 933 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 14.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Leeds
Last XI · not confirmed
1J. Trafford(G)
5T. Muharemović
30N. Elvedi
24J. Justin
3G. Gudmundsson
22A. Tanaka
4E. Ampadu
2J. Bogle
19N. Okafor
18A. Stach
9D. Calvert-Lewin
Tottenham
Last XI · not confirmed
31A. Kinský(G)
3A. Robertson
37M. van de Ven
4T. Adarabioyo
6J. van Hecke
16S. Tonali
14A. Gray
22O. Marmoush
10J. Maddison
20M. Kudus
19D. Solanke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Leeds
No reported absences
Tottenham
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Leeds+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Tottenham+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Leeds · Home
1.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.75
Tottenham · Away
0.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Leeds | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Newcastle | W 4–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Brentford | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Nottingham Forest | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 8 of 12 · 2.00 per game | 2 of 12 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Leeds wins1 draws6 Tottenham wins
Goals per game1.25 – 2.63
Over 2.588%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 11 May 2026Tottenham1–1Leeds
- 4 Oct 2025Leeds1–2Tottenham
- 28 May 2023Leeds1–4Tottenham
- 12 Nov 2022Tottenham4–3Leeds
- 26 Feb 2022Leeds0–4Tottenham
- 21 Nov 2021Tottenham2–1Leeds
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Leeds | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 2.29 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 43% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 43% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Leeds | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.20 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Leeds | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 6.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.14 | 4.43 | |
| Match total | 8.14 | 11.00 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 1.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 4.29 | 3.72 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Leeds | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 7.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 11.40 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.20 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Leeds7 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
1
0-15
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Tottenham7 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1
0-15
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
6
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
Next fixtures Premier League
View all fixtures →
Everton
Coventry
Nov 620:00
Leeds
Tottenham
Nov 712:30
Fulham
Newcastle
Nov 715:00
Arsenal
Hull City
Nov 715:00
Nottingham Forest
Manchester City
Nov 717:30
Brighton
Brentford
Nov 814:00
Crystal Palace
Liverpool
Nov 814:00
Ipswich
Bournemouth
Nov 814:00
Sunderland
Chelsea
Nov 814:00
Manchester United
Aston Villa
Nov 816:30