UEFA Champions League Matchday 3 Wed, Oct 21 · 20:00 Jan Breydelstadion, Brugge
Club Brugge KV 16th · 3 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Lens 19th · 3 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Club Brugge KV are clear favourites.

Club Brugge KV are the stronger side on L90 Strength (76 vs 58). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lens. Club Brugge KV are without J. Ordoñez. Club Brugge KV have 8 days of rest, Lens 4 and have to travel 91 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel91 kmRest days8 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 3
Club Brugge KV63%
Draw18%
Lens19%
Expected goals 2.72 – 1.50
Club Brugge KV56%
Draw24%
Lens20%
Expected goals 1.82 – 0.98
Club Brugge KV62%
Draw18%
Lens19%
Expected goals 2.65 – 1.48
Club Brugge KV54%
Draw20%
Lens26%
Expected goals 2.42 – 1.68
Club Brugge KV62%
Draw19%
Lens20%
Expected goals 2.59 – 1.45
Over 2.5 79% Both score 73% Likeliest score 2–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
9°CClear
  • Precipitation 35%
  • Wind 22 km/h
  • Humidity 87%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Club Brugge KV and Lens. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Club Brugge KVLens
76 L90 StrengthIn forecast 58
75 Current StrengthIn forecast 56
86 AttackIn forecast 63
58 DefenceIn forecast 53
86 Form indexContext 51
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Club Brugge KV

Attack—
Defense risk—

Lens

Attack−15%
Defense risk+69%

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Club Brugge KVLens
3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
3.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
2.76 xGVia Att/Def —
3.62 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
+0.24 Goals minus xGContext —
100% Scored inContext 50%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
12.00 ShotsContext 23.50
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00
42% On target shareContext 30%
13.00 Shots in the boxContext 12.50
83% Box shareContext 53%
25% ConversionContext 6%
1.00 OffsidesContext 1.00
24.00 Shots allowedContext 14.00
9.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
7.50 BlocksContext 5.00
6.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
67% Save rateContext 60%
56% PossessionIn forecast 60%
495 PassesContext 493
436 Accurate passesContext 421
88% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.75 Team ratingContext 6.58
14.50 FoulsContext 8.00
10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00
3.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
2.61 xGVia Att/Def 2.25
1.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.45
-0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.15
100% Scored inContext 80%
50% Clean sheetsContext 10%
17.00 ShotsContext 16.40
5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00
34% On target shareContext 37%
13.70 Shots in the boxContext 10.90
76% Box shareContext 70%
15% ConversionContext 13%
1.67 OffsidesContext 1.56
15.70 Shots allowedContext 12.30
4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
4.60 BlocksContext 3.44
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40
76% Save rateContext 71%
62% PossessionIn forecast 52%
580 PassesContext 474
515 Accurate passesContext 405
89% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.17 Team ratingContext 6.86
9.20 FoulsContext 10.80
11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Club Brugge KV
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,761 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 86 · 12 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · +3.1 vs expected
  • W13 OctA · Inter4–30.9 xPts
  • W10 OctA · RAAL La Louvière4–12.3 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Genk3–01.9 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Antwerp3–12.4 xPts
  • L8 SepH · Aston Villa2–31.5 xPts
Lens
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel91 km508 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 51 · 7 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Estac Troyes3–12.2 xPts
  • L13 OctH · Sporting CP0–21.3 xPts
  • W9 OctH · Lyon2–11.6 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Monaco1–21.3 xPts
  • D13 SepA · Le Mans2–22.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Club Brugge KV Lens
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 13 Oct4Ligue 1 2026-2027, 17 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km91 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,761 km508 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 2 / 21 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one3.83

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Club Brugge KV Last XI · not confirmed
4-5-1 · vs Inter (A) 4–3, 13 Oct
1Y. Sommer(G)
65J. Seys 44B. Mechele 58J. Spileers 64K. Sabbe
11J. Virgili 20H. Vanaken 8F. Potts 10H. Vetlesen 9Carlos Forbs
7N. Tresoldi
+1 more reported missing outside this XI
Lens Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Estac Troyes (A) 3–1, 17 Oct
40R. Risser(G)
20J. Todibo 25P. Ganiou 32Kyllian Antonio
22M. Skóraś 5A. Bulatović 8Y. Titraoui 2R. Aguilar
7F. Sotoca 10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Club Brugge KV Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −9.6% of weighted minutes
  • DEF J. Ordoñez Starter 6.73
Lens Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals
Attack line −5.0% · Defence line −11.5% of weighted minutes
  • DEF R. Aguilar Rotation 6.89
  • ATT A. Sima Rotation 6.67
  • DEF J. Todibo Rotation 6.60
  • DEF M. Nawrocki Rotation 6.35
  • DEF J. Gradit Rotation 6.83
3 without recent minutes (no impact): J. Chávez, M. Diarra, Ilan Jourdren
Total impact vs full squads
  • Club Brugge KV+0.6 pp
  • Draw-0.4 pp
  • Lens-0.3 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Club Brugge KV · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
3.00
Lens · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
3.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Club Brugge KVLensForecast
Scored per game 3.001.50
Conceded per game 3.002.00
Match goals 6.003.50 4.21
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 100%50% 79%
Over 3.5 100%50%
Both teams scored 100%50% 73%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 0%50%
Games22
Club Brugge KVLensForecast
Scored per game 2.502.10
Conceded per game 1.001.50
Match goals 3.503.60 4.21
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 80%80% 79%
Over 3.5 40%50%
Both teams scored 50%70% 73%
Clean sheets 50%10%
Failed to score 0%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Club Brugge KVLensLeague
Corners
Corners won3.507.50
Corners conceded4.504.50
Match total8.0012.009.71
Over 8.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 9.50% 0/250% 1/2
Over 10.50% 0/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards3.501.50
Opponent cards2.500.50
Match total6.002.003.80
Over 3.5100% 2/20% 0/2
Over 4.5100% 2/20% 0/2
Club Brugge KVLensLeague
Corners
Corners won7.306.78
Corners conceded3.405.89
Match total10.7012.679.71
Over 8.570% 7/10100% 9/9
Over 9.560% 6/1078% 7/9
Over 10.540% 4/1056% 5/9
Cards
Cards1.902.10
Opponent cards2.101.30
Match total4.003.403.80
Over 3.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 4.550% 5/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Club Brugge KV2 games · scored 6 · conceded 6
1 0-15
2 1 16-30
2 31-45
46-60
3 61-75
1 2 76-90
Lens2 games · scored 3 · conceded 4
0-15
1 16-30
31-45
1 46-60
1 1 61-75
2 1 76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 25 · conceded 10
2 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
5 3 31-45
4 46-60
6 1 61-75
4 3 76-90
Lens10 games · scored 21 · conceded 15
2 0-15
1 2 16-30
6 3 31-45
6 3 46-60
2 3 61-75
4 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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