Süper Lig Gameweek 10 Sat, Oct 31 · 10:30 Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu, Erzurum
Erzurumspor FK 11th · 11 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Çorum FK 6th · 13 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It looks too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Çorum FK. Erzurumspor FK have 6.9 days of rest, Çorum FK 5.8 and have to travel 541 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel541 kmRest days6.9 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Erzurumspor FK38%
Draw27%
Çorum FK35%
Expected goals 1.39 – 1.33
Erzurumspor FK40%
Draw27%
Çorum FK33%
Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26
Erzurumspor FK38%
Draw27%
Çorum FK35%
Expected goals 1.39 – 1.33
Erzurumspor FK31%
Draw27%
Çorum FK42%
Expected goals 1.24 – 1.49
Erzurumspor FK38%
Draw27%
Çorum FK35%
Expected goals 1.40 – 1.32
Over 2.5 51% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 38 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Erzurum)
11°CLight rain
  • Precipitation 31%
  • Wind 6 km/h
  • Humidity 84%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Erzurumspor FK and Çorum FK. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Erzurumspor FKÇorum FK
27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 32
27 Current StrengthIn forecast 32
17 AttackIn forecast 31
38 DefenceIn forecast 36
56 Form indexContext 70
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Erzurumspor FK

Attack−3%
Defense risk+5%

Çorum FK

Attack−5%
Defense risk−14%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Erzurumspor FKÇorum FK
0.63 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.25
1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.63
0.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.12
1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42
-0.19 Goals minus xGContext +1.13
50% Scored inContext 88%
50% Clean sheetsContext 25%
9.43 ShotsContext 12.25
3.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.88
35% On target shareContext 40%
6.29 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
63% Box shareContext 55%
8% ConversionContext 18%
1.50 OffsidesContext 1.86
11.29 Shots allowedContext 14.75
3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.75
2.20 BlocksContext 4.50
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.57
75% Save rateContext 68%
46% PossessionIn forecast 53%
409 PassesContext 466
341 Accurate passesContext 403
83% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.67 Team ratingContext 6.92
11.71 FoulsContext 12.88
9.86 Fouls sufferedContext 9.38
1.38 Yellow cardsContext 2.13
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
0.63 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.25
1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.63
0.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.12
1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42
-0.19 Goals minus xGContext +1.13
50% Scored inContext 88%
50% Clean sheetsContext 25%
9.43 ShotsContext 12.25
3.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.88
35% On target shareContext 40%
6.29 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
63% Box shareContext 55%
8% ConversionContext 18%
1.50 OffsidesContext 1.86
11.29 Shots allowedContext 14.75
3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.75
2.20 BlocksContext 4.50
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.57
75% Save rateContext 68%
46% PossessionIn forecast 53%
409 PassesContext 466
341 Accurate passesContext 403
83% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.67 Team ratingContext 6.92
11.71 FoulsContext 12.88
9.86 Fouls sufferedContext 9.38
1.38 Yellow cardsContext 2.13
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 8 and 8 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Erzurumspor FK
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km928 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 56 · 10 pts vs 9.3 for an average club · +2.7 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Eyüpspor2–02.2 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Alanyaspor0–01.1 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Samsunspor1–01.6 xPts
  • L11 SepA · Besiktas0–30.7 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Konyaspor1–01.7 xPts
Çorum FK
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel541 km1,422 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 70 · 12 pts vs 9.6 for an average club · +4.4 vs expected
  • W16 OctH · Rizespor2–11.7 xPts
  • W11 OctA · Gazişehir Gaziantep3–01.3 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Alanyaspor1–21.8 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Samsunspor5–11.1 xPts
  • W6 SepH · Eyüpspor3–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Erzurumspor FK Çorum FK
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 24 Oct5.8Süper Lig 2026-2027, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km541 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways928 km1,422 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one88.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Erzurumspor FK Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Eyüpspor (H) 2–0, 17 Oct
1M. Taşkıran(G)
15G. Giorbelidze 18N. Mujakić 22M. Yumlu 4A. Gerxhaliu 53O. Ovacıklı
65M. Rodríguez 42E. Owusu 6B. Baiye
20Miguel Cardoso 10E. Tozlu
Çorum FK Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Rizespor (H) 2–1, 16 Oct
1Marcos Felipe(G)
6H. Smolčić 2Ç. Söyüncü 5Alexandre Penetra
24A. Borza 10M. Diomande 3B. Özdemir 11G. Sazdağı
89A. Kyziridis 19J. Ramírez 7C. Ünder

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Erzurumspor FK No reported absences
Çorum FK No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Erzurumspor FK+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Çorum FK+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Erzurumspor FK · Home 2.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00
Çorum FK · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
3.00
Conceded
2.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentErzurumspor FKÇorum FK
Eyüpspor W 2–0 H W 3–0 H
Alanyaspor D 0–0 A L 1–2 H
Samsunspor W 1–0 H W 5–1 A
Besiktas L 0–3 A L 2–6 A
Galatasaray L 0–4 H D 2–2 A
Points7 of 15 · 1.40 per game7 of 15 · 1.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Erzurumspor FKÇorum FKForecast
Scored per game 0.632.25
Conceded per game 1.381.63
Match goals 2.003.88 2.72
Over 1.5 63%88%
Over 2.5 38%88% 51%
Over 3.5 13%38%
Both teams scored 13%63% 56%
Clean sheets 50%25%
Failed to score 50%13%
Games88
Erzurumspor FKÇorum FKForecast
Scored per game 0.632.25
Conceded per game 1.381.63
Match goals 2.003.88 2.72
Over 1.5 63%88%
Over 2.5 38%88% 51%
Over 3.5 13%38%
Both teams scored 13%63% 56%
Clean sheets 50%25%
Failed to score 50%13%
Games88

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Erzurumspor FKÇorum FKLeague
Corners
Corners won3.433.86
Corners conceded3.146.00
Match total6.579.869.12
Over 8.50% 0/771% 5/7
Over 9.50% 0/757% 4/7
Over 10.50% 0/743% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.382.25
Opponent cards2.131.38
Match total3.513.634.04
Over 3.550% 4/850% 4/8
Over 4.550% 4/813% 1/8
Erzurumspor FKÇorum FKLeague
Corners
Corners won3.433.86
Corners conceded3.146.00
Match total6.579.869.12
Over 8.50% 0/771% 5/7
Over 9.50% 0/757% 4/7
Over 10.50% 0/743% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.382.25
Opponent cards2.131.38
Match total3.513.634.04
Over 3.550% 4/850% 4/8
Over 4.550% 4/813% 1/8

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Erzurumspor FK8 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
1 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 61-75
2 76-90
Çorum FK8 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
4 3 0-15
1 16-30
2 2 31-45
3 2 46-60
3 3 61-75
5 3 76-90
Erzurumspor FK8 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
1 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 61-75
2 76-90
Çorum FK8 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
4 3 0-15
1 16-30
2 2 31-45
3 2 46-60
3 3 61-75
5 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Süper Lig

View all fixtures →
Konyaspor Galatasaray Oct 3017:00 Erzurumspor FK Çorum FK Oct 3110:30 Kocaelispor Rizespor Oct 3113:00 Fenerbahce Goztepe Oct 3116:00 Amed Eyüpspor Nov 110:30 Istanbul Basaksehir Samsunspor Nov 113:00 Trabzonspor Gazişehir Gaziantep Nov 113:00 Kasimpasa Besiktas Nov 116:00 Genclerbirligi Alanyaspor Nov 217:00