Fenerbahce vs Liverpool

UEFA Champions League Matchday 4 Wed, Nov 4 · 17:45 Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul

Fenerbahce 28th · 1 pts · 2 played DL

VS— Compare

Liverpool 5th · 6 pts · 2 played WW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool are slight favourites.

Liverpool are the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 64). Fenerbahce have 4.1 days of rest, Liverpool 3.1 and have to travel 2,744 km.

Away travel2,744 kmRest days4.1 · 3.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Fenerbahce29%

Draw22%

Liverpool49%

Expected goals 1.52 – 2.03

Fenerbahce28%

Draw27%

Liverpool45%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.53

Fenerbahce29%

Draw22%

Liverpool49%

Expected goals 1.52 – 2.03

Fenerbahce22%

Draw21%

Liverpool58%

Expected goals 1.36 – 2.27

Fenerbahce29%

Draw23%

Liverpool49%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.97

Over 2.5 69% Both score 68% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 5 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

Forecast from 20 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Fenerbahce

Liverpool

64 L90 StrengthIn forecast 84

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 84

75 AttackIn forecast 85

53 DefenceIn forecast 84

65 Form indexContext 87

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fenerbahce

Attack−43%

Defense risk+91%

Liverpool

Attack+21%

Defense risk+3%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Fenerbahce

Liverpool

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 4.00

3.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

— xGVia Att/Def 2.49

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.49

— Goals minus xGContext +1.51

50% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

13.00 ShotsContext 20.00

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00

35% On target shareContext 35%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 16.00

64% Box shareContext 81%

4% ConversionContext 20%

2.00 OffsidesContext 4.50

14.00 Shots allowedContext 10.50

7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.00 BlocksContext 1.00

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

50% Save rateContext 50%

49% PossessionIn forecast 55%

456 PassesContext 496

397 Accurate passesContext 438

87% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.39 Team ratingContext 7.28

9.00 FoulsContext 7.50

15.50 Fouls sufferedContext 8.50

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 0.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

2.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.89

1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

80% Scored inContext 80%

50% Clean sheetsContext 30%

16.11 ShotsContext 17.40

6.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70

41% On target shareContext 33%

11.33 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

69% Box shareContext 62%

17% ConversionContext 10%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.50

14.33 Shots allowedContext 11.50

6.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

3.56 BlocksContext 3.20

4.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.10

74% Save rateContext 62%

49% PossessionIn forecast 56%

429 PassesContext 487

369 Accurate passesContext 417

86% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.00 Team ratingContext 6.99

12.89 FoulsContext 12.10

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fenerbahce DWWLW

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 65 · 10 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected

W17 OctH · Alanyaspor3–02.3 xPts
L14 OctA · Aston Villa0–60.8 xPts
W10 OctA · Rizespor3–01.9 xPts
W20 SepH · Eyüpspor8–02.5 xPts
D14 SepA · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–01.9 xPts

Liverpool DWLWW

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel2,744 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load28%Moderate

Form 87 · 10 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +2.5 vs expected

W17 OctA · Brentford2–11.3 xPts
W14 OctA · Lask Linz6–31.8 xPts
L11 OctH · Manchester City0–31.3 xPts
W20 SepA · Bournemouth1–01.2 xPts
D12 SepH · Fulham0–02.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fenerbahce	Liverpool
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 28
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 31 Oct	3.1Premier League 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,744 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 6	1 / 2 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	3.8	3.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fenerbahce Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Alanyaspor (H) 3–0, 17 Oct

31Ederson(G)

22M. Mercan 15N. Aké 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo

6M. Guendouzi 91N. Kanté

70O. Aydın 11M. Greenwood 17İ. Kahveci

9R. Lukaku

Liverpool Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Brentford (A) 2–1, 17 Oct

1A. Becker(G)

6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5J. Jacquet 33R. Araujo

8D. Szoboszlai 10A. Mac Allister

29B. Barcola 7F. Wirtz 23Víctor Muñoz

9A. Isak

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fenerbahce No reported absences

Liverpool No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Fenerbahce+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Liverpool+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Fenerbahce · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Liverpool · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 6.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Fenerbahce	Liverpool	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	4.00
Conceded per game	3.50	2.00
Match goals	4.00	6.00	3.55
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	100%	69%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	100%	68%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	2	2

	Fenerbahce	Liverpool	Forecast
Scored per game	2.40	1.80
Conceded per game	1.20	1.30
Match goals	3.60	3.10	3.55
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	69%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	68%
Clean sheets	50%	30%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fenerbahce	Liverpool	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	9.00
Corners conceded	6.00	4.00
Match total	10.00	13.00	9.71
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Cards
Cards	3.00	0.50
Opponent cards	1.00	1.00
Match total	4.00	1.50	3.80
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2

	Fenerbahce	Liverpool	League
Corners
Corners won	5.22	6.60
Corners conceded	4.22	4.10
Match total	9.44	10.70	9.71
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.20
Opponent cards	1.40	2.20
Match total	3.30	4.40	3.80
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.