Everton vs Leeds – 26 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 23 Mon, Jan 26 · 20:00 Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, Merseyside

Everton 11th · 32 pts · 22 played DWLDW

1–1Full time

Leeds 16th · 25 pts · 22 played DDDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Everton were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Everton had 8.1 days of rest, Leeds 9.2 and had to travel 104 km.

Away travel104 kmRest days8.1 · 9.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Everton45%

Draw26%

Leeds30%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.28

Everton44%

Draw27%

Leeds29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.18

Everton45%

Draw26%

Leeds29%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.25

Everton37%

Draw26%

Leeds37%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.43

Everton45%

Draw26%

Leeds29%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.24

Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool, Merseyside)

No weather data yet

RefereeSimon Hooper

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 138

Team strength

Everton

Leeds

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 73

61 AttackIn forecast 69

66 DefenceIn forecast 77

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Everton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Everton

Leeds

1.09 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.36

1.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.68

1.10 xGVia Att/Def 1.45

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.45

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

68% Scored inContext 73%

41% Clean sheetsContext 18%

10.77 ShotsContext 12.82

3.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.14

29% On target shareContext 32%

7.27 Shots in the boxContext 8.77

68% Box shareContext 67%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.15 OffsidesContext 2.29

13.73 Shots allowedContext 11.91

4.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.64 BlocksContext 3.70

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.48

69% Save rateContext 63%

43% PossessionIn forecast 46%

369 PassesContext 403

292 Accurate passesContext 323

79% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.79

10.41 FoulsContext 9.95

11.68 Fouls sufferedContext 11.55

1.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.45

0.09 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 22 and 22 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

0.97 xGVia Att/Def 1.87

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

70% Scored inContext 90%

50% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.60 ShotsContext 14.90

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

29% On target shareContext 37%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 10.20

68% Box shareContext 70%

10% ConversionContext 13%

2.40 OffsidesContext 2.88

13.80 Shots allowedContext 12.10

4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

3.90 BlocksContext 3.50

3.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

76% Save rateContext 59%

41% PossessionIn forecast 45%

363 PassesContext 390

285 Accurate passesContext 305

78% Pass accuracyContext 78%

7.00 Team ratingContext 6.92

11.40 FoulsContext 8.80

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Everton

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km252 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Leeds

Rest9.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel104 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Everton	Leeds
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.1Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Jan	9.2Premier League 2025-2026, 17 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	104 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	252 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	4.8	4.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Everton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Pickford(G)

16V. Mykolenko 15J. O'Brien 6J. Tarkowski 2N. Patterson

37J. Garner 27I. Gueye

10I. Ndiaye 45H. Armstrong 7D. McNeil

11T. Barry

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Leeds Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

26K. Darlow(G)

5P. Struijk 23S. Bornauw 6J. Rodon

24J. Justin 44I. Gruev 4E. Ampadu 2J. Bogle

11B. Aaronson 18A. Stach

9D. Calvert-Lewin

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Everton Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Leeds Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Everton-0.1 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Leeds+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Everton · Home 1.36points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 4-3-4
Scored: 1.27
Conceded: 1.36

Leeds · Away 0.55points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-7
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.18

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Everton	Leeds
Aston Villa	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H	L 1–2 H
Wolves	D 1–1 HW 3–2 A	W 3–1 A
Brentford	L 2–4 H	D 1–1 A
Nottingham Forest	W 2–0 AW 3–0 H	L 1–3 A
Burnley	D 0–0 A	L 0–2 A
Arsenal	L 0–1 H	L 0–5 A
Chelsea	L 0–2 A	W 3–1 H
Bournemouth	W 1–0 A	D 2–2 H
Newcastle	L 1–4 H	L 3–4 AD 0–0 H
Manchester United	W 1–0 A	D 1–1 H
Fulham	W 2–0 H	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A
Sunderland	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 A
Tottenham	L 0–3 H	L 1–2 H
Manchester City	L 0–2 A	L 2–3 A
Crystal Palace	W 2–1 H	W 4–1 H
West Ham	D 1–1 H	W 2–1 H
Liverpool	L 1–2 A	D 0–0 AD 3–3 H
Brighton	W 2–0 H	L 0–3 A
Points	32 of 63 · 1.52 per game	22 of 63 · 1.05 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

3 Everton wins2 draws2 Leeds wins

Goals per game1.29 – 0.86 Over 2.543% Both scored43% Clean sheets29% · 29%

18 Aug 2025Leeds1–0Everton
18 Feb 2023Everton1–0Leeds
30 Aug 2022Leeds1–1Everton
12 Feb 2022Everton3–0Leeds
21 Aug 2021Leeds2–2Everton
3 Feb 2021Leeds1–2Everton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Everton	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	1.09	1.36
Conceded per game	1.14	1.68
Match goals	2.23	3.05	2.89
Over 1.5	68%	77%
Over 2.5	32%	59%	55%
Over 3.5	14%	41%
Both teams scored	36%	64%	58%
Clean sheets	41%	18%
Failed to score	32%	27%
Games	22	22

	Everton	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.90
Conceded per game	1.20	1.50
Match goals	2.30	3.40	2.89
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	30%	50%	55%
Over 3.5	20%	50%
Both teams scored	30%	80%	58%
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Everton	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	4.18	4.90
Corners conceded	5.27	4.00
Match total	9.45	8.90	9.95
Over 8.5	68% 15/22	65% 13/20
Over 9.5	45% 10/22	50% 10/20
Over 10.5	36% 8/22	30% 6/20
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.45
Opponent cards	1.73	1.77
Match total	3.73	3.22	3.85
Over 3.5	50% 11/22	41% 9/22
Over 4.5	41% 9/22	32% 7/22

	Everton	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	4.22	5.78
Corners conceded	4.89	4.67
Match total	9.11	10.45	9.95
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.10
Opponent cards	2.10	1.80
Match total	3.90	2.90	3.85
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Simon Hooper 138 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.91league 3.71

Red cards0.07league 0.10

Cards 5+37%league 38%

Fouls21.8league 21.3

Penalties0.16league 0.21

Home wins49%league 45%

Everton13 with this referee

Record4-3-6 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 3 Reds1

D13 Sep 25H · Aston Villa0–03
L19 Apr 25H · Manchester City0–24
D26 Feb 25A · Brentford1–11
D26 Dec 24A · Manchester City1–14
L17 Aug 24H · Brighton0–32

Leeds8 with this referee

Record3-3-2 Cards · opp.3.4 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds1

W23 Aug 24A · Sheffield Wednesday2–03
D13 May 23H · Newcastle2–25
L9 Apr 23H · Crystal Palace1–53
D8 Feb 23A · Manchester United2–23
D31 Dec 22A · Newcastle0–05

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.