Famalicao
Attack+4%
Defense risk−4%
Our take
Famalicao are slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Arouca. Famalicao have 5 days of rest, Arouca 5.2 and have to travel 58 km.
Away travel58 kmRest days5 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Famalicao43%
Draw27%
Arouca30%
Famalicao46%
Draw26%
Arouca27%
Famalicao43%
Draw27%
Arouca30%
Famalicao36%
Draw27%
Arouca37%
Famalicao43%
Draw26%
Arouca31%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 12 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)
Forecast from 22 Oct
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Famalicao and Arouca. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Famalicao
63%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Arouca
4
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Famalicao
−0.23
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.90xG against1.13
-
Insight
Arouca
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Insight
Arouca
4
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Arouca
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Famalicao
−0.23
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.90xG against1.13
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
FamalicaoArouca
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
24
AttackIn forecast
28
36
DefenceIn forecast
37
30
Form indexContext
45
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArouca
Attack+4%
Defense risk−5%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
FamalicaoArouca
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.88
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
75%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.00
ShotsContext
10.50
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
33%
On target shareContext
36%
4.75
Shots in the boxContext
6.25
47%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.40
OffsidesContext
1.83
11.88
Shots allowedContext
14.25
3.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.75
BlocksContext
3.75
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
59%
Save rateContext
81%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
472
PassesContext
440
405
Accurate passesContext
372
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.63
FoulsContext
10.38
15.25
Fouls sufferedContext
10.38
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.88
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
70%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.50
ShotsContext
11.30
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
31%
On target shareContext
35%
5.10
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
48%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.60
Shots allowedContext
13.80
2.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.67
BlocksContext
4.00
1.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
62%
Save rateContext
79%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
465
PassesContext
439
399
Accurate passesContext
370
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.90
FoulsContext
11.00
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Famalicao
DDDWL
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km75 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 30 · 6 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
Arouca
WDLDW
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel58 km472 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 45 · 8 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Famalicao |
Arouca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 1 Nov | 5.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 58 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 75 km | 472 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 24 | 21.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Famalicao
Last XI · not confirmed
25L. Carević(G)
28Pedro Bondo
15Víctor Rofino
36M. Mattara
17Rodrigo Pinheiro
21Tamás Szücs
8Marcos Peña
7Sorriso
14M. De Amorim
23Gil Dias
70G. Koutsias
Arouca
Last XI · not confirmed
12I. de Arruabarrena(G)
18O. Lebedenko
3José Fontán
15Javi Sánchez
28Tiago Esgaio
8T. Fukui
6E. van Ee
7N. Djouahra
10Pablo Gozálbez
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Famalicao
No reported absences
Arouca
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Famalicao+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Arouca+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Famalicao · Home
0.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.75
Arouca · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Famalicao | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Estrela | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Santa Clara | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Maritimo | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Estoril | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 3 of 15 · 0.60 per game | 8 of 15 · 1.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Famalicao wins2 draws3 Arouca wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.25
Over 2.538%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets38% · 25%
- 6 Mar 2026Famalicao1–0Arouca
- 5 Oct 2025Arouca1–1Famalicao
- 5 Apr 2025Arouca1–2Famalicao
- 9 Nov 2024Famalicao0–0Arouca
- 23 Feb 2024Arouca3–2Famalicao
- 22 Sep 2023Famalicao1–0Arouca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Famalicao | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 0.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 2.25 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 38% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Famalicao | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.60 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Famalicao | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.75 | 3.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.88 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 8.51 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.38 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.76 | 6.00 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 5/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Famalicao | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 8.60 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.50 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Famalicao8 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Arouca8 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Famalicao10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
