Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente

Primeira Liga Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 8 · 15:30 Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores

Santa Clara 4th · 18 pts · 8 played DWWDW

VS— Compare

GIL Vicente 6th · 14 pts · 8 played LLDWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Santa Clara are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Santa Clara. Santa Clara have 6.9 days of rest, GIL Vicente 5.8 and have to travel 1,517 km.

Away travel1,517 kmRest days6.9 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 1

Santa Clara45%

Draw28%

GIL Vicente27%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.08

Santa Clara45%

Draw27%

GIL Vicente28%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.16

Santa Clara45%

Draw28%

GIL Vicente27%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.08

Santa Clara38%

Draw28%

GIL Vicente34%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.21

Santa Clara46%

Draw27%

GIL Vicente27%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.12

Over 2.5 46% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 1 day ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Santa Clara 8 Unbeaten in a row Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Unbeaten in a row

Team strength

Santa Clara

GIL Vicente

34 L90 StrengthIn forecast 31

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

29 AttackIn forecast 32

53 DefenceIn forecast 50

73 Form indexContext 46

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Santa Clara

Attack−1%

Defense risk−4%

GIL Vicente

Attack−8%

Defense risk−4%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Santa Clara

GIL Vicente

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.75

1.29 xGVia Att/Def 1.35

0.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.65

+0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.35

88% Scored inContext 75%

63% Clean sheetsContext 50%

13.13 ShotsContext 13.50

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.75

27% On target shareContext 28%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

60% Box shareContext 61%

11% ConversionContext 7%

1.80 OffsidesContext 1.57

7.75 Shots allowedContext 11.13

2.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.75

1.63 BlocksContext 2.71

2.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.29

83% Save rateContext 76%

47% PossessionIn forecast 53%

379 PassesContext 472

300 Accurate passesContext 409

79% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.82

13.25 FoulsContext 13.13

13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.75

2.75 Yellow cardsContext 2.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.18 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

0.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.89

+0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.25

80% Scored inContext 70%

60% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.60 ShotsContext 13.10

3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

24% On target shareContext 28%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.90

59% Box shareContext 58%

11% ConversionContext 7%

1.57 OffsidesContext 1.56

8.80 Shots allowedContext 11.60

2.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.20

2.10 BlocksContext 3.00

2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

88% Save rateContext 71%

46% PossessionIn forecast 50%

367 PassesContext 447

289 Accurate passesContext 386

79% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.75

12.50 FoulsContext 13.00

13.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Santa Clara DWWDW

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,927 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +3.7 vs expected

W10 OctA · Casa Pia1–01.6 xPts
D20 SepH · SC Braga0–01.3 xPts
W13 SepA · Arouca2–11.2 xPts
W6 SepH · Rio Ave4–01.9 xPts
D29 AugA · Alverca1–11.3 xPts

GIL Vicente LLDWW

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,517 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 46 · 7 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected

W19 OctA · SC Braga2–10.8 xPts
W9 OctA · Moreirense1–01.3 xPts
D19 SepH · Maritimo1–12.0 xPts
L13 SepA · Benfica1–30.4 xPts
L6 SepH · Academico Viseu0–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Santa Clara	GIL Vicente
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 1 Nov	5.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 2 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,517 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,927 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	20	21.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Santa Clara Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Casa Pia (A) 1–0, 10 Oct

1Lucas França(G)

5Guilherme Romão 21Emanuel Fernandes 4Pedro Pacheco 42Lucas Soares

20Tiago Ribeiro 6Pedro Ferreira 8José Tavares

10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos 9Gonçalo Paciência 70Vinícius Lopes

GIL Vicente Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs SC Braga (A) 2–1, 19 Oct

30Lucão(G)

45David Moreira 39Jonathan Buatu 4M. Elimbi 47Ricardo Esgaio

86Diogo Prioste 12A. Lausen

20Gil Martins 10Santi García 77Murilo

99M. Kaba

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Santa Clara No reported absences

GIL Vicente No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Santa Clara+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
GIL Vicente+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Santa Clara · Home 2.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-0
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 0.50

GIL Vicente · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Santa Clara	GIL Vicente
Casa Pia	W 1–0 A	W 2–0 H
SC Braga	D 0–0 H	W 2–1 A
Rio Ave	W 4–0 H	W 1–0 H
Famalicao	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 A
Academico Viseu	W 1–0 A	L 0–1 H
Points	13 of 15 · 2.60 per game	10 of 15 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

4 Santa Clara wins0 draws2 GIL Vicente wins

Goals per game1.17 – 0.83 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%

21 Mar 2026Santa Clara1–0GIL Vicente
3 Nov 2025GIL Vicente1–0Santa Clara
15 Mar 2025GIL Vicente0–1Santa Clara
25 Oct 2024Santa Clara2–1GIL Vicente
6 May 2023Santa Clara3–2GIL Vicente
29 Dec 2022GIL Vicente1–0Santa Clara

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Santa Clara	GIL Vicente	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.00
Conceded per game	0.50	0.75
Match goals	2.00	1.75	2.52
Over 1.5	50%	50%
Over 2.5	38%	25%	46%
Over 3.5	25%	13%
Both teams scored	38%	38%	51%
Clean sheets	63%	50%
Failed to score	13%	25%
Games	8	8

	Santa Clara	GIL Vicente	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	0.90
Conceded per game	0.50	1.20
Match goals	1.90	2.10	2.52
Over 1.5	50%	60%
Over 2.5	30%	40%	46%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	30%	40%	51%
Clean sheets	60%	40%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Santa Clara	GIL Vicente	League
Corners
Corners won	4.13	3.71
Corners conceded	5.38	3.43
Match total	9.51	7.14	8.91
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	14% 1/7
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	0% 0/7
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	0% 0/7
Cards
Cards	2.88	2.25
Opponent cards	2.25	2.25
Match total	5.13	4.50	4.55
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	63% 5/8
Over 4.5	38% 3/8	63% 5/8

	Santa Clara	GIL Vicente	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	3.56
Corners conceded	5.70	3.56
Match total	9.90	7.12	8.91
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	11% 1/9
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	0% 0/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	0% 0/9
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.10
Opponent cards	2.00	1.90
Match total	4.40	4.00	4.55
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.