Alverca vs Casa Pia – 7 Nov 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 11 Sat, Nov 7 · 18:00 Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo

Alverca 8th · 11 pts · 8 played DLWWW

VS— Compare

Casa Pia 17th · 4 pts · 8 played LDLWL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Alverca are slight favourites.

Alverca are the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Alverca. Alverca have 4.9 days of rest, Casa Pia 7.9 and have to travel.

Rest days4.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Alverca58%

Draw24%

Casa Pia18%

Expected goals 1.80 – 0.89

Alverca54%

Draw25%

Casa Pia22%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.02

Alverca58%

Draw24%

Casa Pia18%

Expected goals 1.80 – 0.89

Alverca51%

Draw26%

Casa Pia23%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.00

Alverca60%

Draw22%

Casa Pia18%

Expected goals 1.98 – 0.99

Over 2.5 51% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–0

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)

Forecast from 23 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Alverca

Casa Pia

30 L90 StrengthIn forecast 18

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

38 AttackIn forecast 13

42 DefenceIn forecast 25

64 Form indexContext 19

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alverca

Attack+18%

Defense risk−25%

Casa Pia

Attack−1%

Defense risk+1%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Alverca

Casa Pia

1.63 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.38

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.13

1.44 xGVia Att/Def 0.58

1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

88% Scored inContext 25%

13% Clean sheetsContext 13%

12.00 ShotsContext 9.63

4.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

34% On target shareContext 27%

7.38 Shots in the boxContext 6.14

59% Box shareContext 59%

14% ConversionContext 4%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.83

12.13 Shots allowedContext 15.25

4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.29 BlocksContext 5.71

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.43

71% Save rateContext 67%

43% PossessionIn forecast 44%

343 PassesContext 343

273 Accurate passesContext 268

80% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.44

14.63 FoulsContext 12.13

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

2.25 Yellow cardsContext 2.13

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 0.58

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.12 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

80% Scored inContext 30%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.00 ShotsContext 9.60

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.44

32% On target shareContext 32%

6.80 Shots in the boxContext 6.22

60% Box shareContext 60%

13% ConversionContext 5%

2.14 OffsidesContext 1.75

11.80 Shots allowedContext 15.50

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

3.00 BlocksContext 5.67

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

69% Save rateContext 70%

43% PossessionIn forecast 43%

350 PassesContext 327

281 Accurate passesContext 251

80% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.56

14.40 FoulsContext 12.60

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alverca DLWWW

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km43 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 64 · 10 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · +3.5 vs expected

W12 OctA · Famalicao4–10.9 xPts
W19 SepH · Rio Ave1–01.8 xPts
W12 SepA · Nacional3–11.3 xPts
L5 SepH · SC Braga1–21.0 xPts
D29 AugH · Santa Clara1–11.5 xPts

Casa Pia LDLWL

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 19 · 4 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

L10 OctH · Santa Clara0–11.1 xPts
W20 SepA · Estoril2–11.0 xPts
L12 SepH · FC Porto1–40.5 xPts
D6 SepA · Guimaraes0–00.7 xPts
L30 AugH · Moreirense0–11.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Alverca	Casa Pia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 2 Nov	7.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 30 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	43 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	21	23.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Alverca Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-3 · vs Famalicao (A) 4–1, 12 Oct

31Matheus Mendes(G)

12Isaac James 21Sergi Gómez 14S. Baseya

55Francisco Chissumba 6D. Gui 35Rayan Lucas 20Diogo Spencer

22Figueiredo 19D. Camara 10Chiquinho

Casa Pia Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Santa Clara (H) 0–1, 10 Oct

95Ivan Mandić(G)

75Pedro Rosas 43David Sousa 3Kaly 18André Geraldes

80L. Ofori 16Silvi

77B. Pauwels 70João Rêgo 11M. El Boukammiri

9Henrique Araújo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Alverca No reported absences

Casa Pia No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Alverca+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Casa Pia+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Alverca · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.25

Casa Pia · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Alverca	Casa Pia
Santa Clara	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 H
FC Porto	L 0–2 A	L 1–4 H
Points	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game	0 of 6 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 Alverca wins0 draws0 Casa Pia wins

Goals per game2.50 – 0.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

12 Apr 2026Alverca3–1Casa Pia
29 Nov 2025Casa Pia0–2Alverca

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Alverca	Casa Pia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.63	0.38
Conceded per game	1.50	2.13
Match goals	3.13	2.50	2.70
Over 1.5	88%	50%
Over 2.5	63%	38%	51%
Over 3.5	50%	25%
Both teams scored	75%	25%	50%
Clean sheets	13%	13%
Failed to score	13%	75%
Games	8	8

	Alverca	Casa Pia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	0.50
Conceded per game	1.40	1.80
Match goals	2.80	2.30	2.70
Over 1.5	80%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	51%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	30%	50%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	20%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Alverca	Casa Pia	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	4.00
Corners conceded	4.50	6.25
Match total	10.50	10.25	8.91
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	67% 4/6	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	67% 4/6	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.38	2.38
Opponent cards	1.88	2.13
Match total	4.26	4.51	4.55
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	38% 3/8	38% 3/8

	Alverca	Casa Pia	League
Corners
Corners won	5.63	4.10
Corners conceded	4.63	6.40
Match total	10.26	10.50	8.91
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	63% 5/8	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.80
Opponent cards	1.80	2.10
Match total	4.20	4.90	4.55
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.