Sporting CP vs Moreirense

Primeira Liga Gameweek 11 Sat, Nov 7 · 20:30 Estádio José Alvalade, Lisboa

Sporting CP 3rd · 18 pts · 8 played WWDDW

VS— Compare

Moreirense 12th · 8 pts · 8 played LLWDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sporting CP are clear favourites.

Sporting CP are the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 25). Sporting CP usually keep the ball (56% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Sporting CP have 4.1 days of rest, Moreirense 7.2 and have to travel 304 km.

Away travel304 kmRest days4.1 · 7.2Matches / 14d3 · 2

Sporting CP81%

Draw13%

Moreirense6%

Expected goals 2.77 – 0.64

Sporting CP81%

Draw13%

Moreirense6%

Expected goals 2.77 – 0.65

Sporting CP81%

Draw13%

Moreirense6%

Expected goals 2.77 – 0.64

Sporting CP75%

Draw16%

Moreirense8%

Expected goals 2.47 – 0.72

Sporting CP82%

Draw12%

Moreirense6%

Expected goals 2.90 – 0.69

Over 2.5 66% Both score 45% Likeliest score 2–0

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lisboa)

Forecast from 23 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Sporting CP

Moreirense

84 L90 StrengthIn forecast 25

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 25

75 AttackIn forecast 17

81 DefenceIn forecast 27

83 Form indexContext 23

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sporting CP

Attack+13%

Defense risk−19%

Moreirense

Attack−34%

Defense risk+62%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Sporting CP

Moreirense

2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.88

1.70 xGVia Att/Def 0.51

0.85 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46

+0.80 Goals minus xGContext +0.49

100% Scored inContext 63%

25% Clean sheetsContext 13%

12.50 ShotsContext 7.88

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.75

44% On target shareContext 35%

8.25 Shots in the boxContext 4.25

67% Box shareContext 55%

20% ConversionContext 13%

1.71 OffsidesContext —

9.13 Shots allowedContext 15.13

3.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

2.14 BlocksContext 3.88

2.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

73% Save rateContext 58%

59% PossessionIn forecast 36%

550 PassesContext 324

488 Accurate passesContext 244

89% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.48

11.50 FoulsContext 13.63

13.38 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

2.25 Yellow cardsContext 2.63

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.71 xGVia Att/Def 0.53

1.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.79 Goals minus xGContext +0.27

100% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.90 ShotsContext 8.50

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.80

45% On target shareContext 33%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 4.50

66% Box shareContext 54%

21% ConversionContext 9%

1.88 OffsidesContext 1.00

10.40 Shots allowedContext 14.20

3.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

2.33 BlocksContext 4.00

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

81% Save rateContext 56%

55% PossessionIn forecast 41%

521 PassesContext 364

457 Accurate passesContext 286

88% Pass accuracyContext 79%

7.00 Team ratingContext 6.54

11.70 FoulsContext 12.70

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.90

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sporting CP WDDWW

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km6,705 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

Form 83 · 11 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected

W13 OctA · Lens2–01.5 xPts
W9 OctA · SC Braga3–11.5 xPts
D19 SepH · Arouca2–22.4 xPts
D13 SepA · Famalicao1–11.9 xPts
W9 SepH · Galatasaray3–11.8 xPts

Moreirense LLWDL

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel304 km623 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 23 · 4 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

L9 OctH · GIL Vicente0–11.4 xPts
D20 SepA · Guimaraes1–10.9 xPts
W14 SepH · Maritimo3–11.7 xPts
L9 SepH · Benfica0–40.5 xPts
L4 SepA · FC Porto1–20.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sporting CP	Moreirense
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 3 Nov	7.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	304 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	6,705 km	623 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	18	20.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Sporting CP Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Lens (A) 2–0, 13 Oct

30Kaique(G)

20M. Araújo 25G. Inácio 72Eduardo Quaresma 22Iván Fresneda

77I. Doumbia 5Sergi Altimira 8João Simões

19N. Irankunda 97L. Suárez 10Geny Catamo

Moreirense Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs GIL Vicente (H) 0–1, 9 Oct

13André Ferreira(G)

27Kiko 26Maracás 66G. Dambi Batista 76Dinis Pinto

65Guilherme Liberato 23N. John

19Tiago Andrade 7Manuel Mendonça 10Kiko Bondoso

79L. Vonić

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sporting CP No reported absences

Moreirense No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Sporting CP+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Moreirense+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Sporting CP · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-0
Scored: 2.50
Conceded: 1.25

Moreirense · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Sporting CP	Moreirense
SC Braga	W 3–1 A	D 2–2 H
Arouca	D 2–2 H	L 0–4 A
Guimaraes	W 3–2 H	D 1–1 A
Points	7 of 9 · 2.33 per game	2 of 9 · 0.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

5 Sporting CP wins0 draws1 Moreirense wins

Goals per game2.50 – 0.50 Over 2.583% Both scored33% Clean sheets67% · 0%

21 Feb 2026Moreirense0–3Sporting CP
22 Sep 2025Sporting CP3–0Moreirense
18 Apr 2025Sporting CP3–1Moreirense
5 Dec 2024Moreirense2–1Sporting CP
19 Feb 2024Moreirense0–2Sporting CP
17 Sep 2023Sporting CP3–0Moreirense

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sporting CP	Moreirense	Forecast
Scored per game	2.50	1.00
Conceded per game	1.13	1.88
Match goals	3.63	2.88	3.42
Over 1.5	100%	75%
Over 2.5	75%	63%	66%
Over 3.5	75%	50%
Both teams scored	75%	50%	45%
Clean sheets	25%	13%
Failed to score	0%	38%
Games	8	8

	Sporting CP	Moreirense	Forecast
Scored per game	2.50	0.80
Conceded per game	1.00	1.70
Match goals	3.50	2.50	3.42
Over 1.5	100%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	66%
Over 3.5	70%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	45%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sporting CP	Moreirense	League
Corners
Corners won	3.57	2.50
Corners conceded	3.29	4.88
Match total	6.86	7.38	8.91
Over 8.5	14% 1/7	25% 2/8
Over 9.5	0% 0/7	25% 2/8
Over 10.5	0% 0/7	0% 0/8
Cards
Cards	2.38	2.75
Opponent cards	2.50	1.88
Match total	4.88	4.63	4.55
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	38% 3/8	50% 4/8

	Sporting CP	Moreirense	League
Corners
Corners won	3.22	3.30
Corners conceded	3.67	4.30
Match total	6.89	7.60	8.91
Over 8.5	22% 2/9	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	0% 0/9	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	0% 0/9	0% 0/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.60
Opponent cards	2.50	1.80
Match total	4.60	4.40	4.55
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.