SC Braga
Attack+5%
Defense risk−5%
Our take
SC Braga are clear favourites.
SC Braga are the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 38). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for SC Braga. SC Braga have 7.1 days of rest, Famalicao 7.1 and have to travel 18 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel18 kmRest days7.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
SC Braga60%
Draw23%
Famalicao17%
SC Braga56%
Draw24%
Famalicao20%
SC Braga60%
Draw23%
Famalicao17%
SC Braga53%
Draw25%
Famalicao22%
SC Braga60%
Draw23%
Famalicao17%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 5 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Braga)
14°CClear
- Precipitation 12%
- Wind 12 km/h
- Humidity 51%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for SC Braga and Famalicao. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
SC Braga
63%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
SC Braga
3
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Famalicao
−0.23
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.90xG against1.13
-
Trend
Famalicao
63%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Attack
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
SC BragaFamalicao
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
41
AttackIn forecast
24
59
DefenceIn forecast
36
19
Form indexContext
30
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFamalicao
Attack−19%
Defense risk+21%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
SC BragaFamalicao
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.38
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
0.76
0.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.49
88%
Scored inContext
75%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
13.00
ShotsContext
10.00
4.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
34%
On target shareContext
33%
8.13
Shots in the boxContext
4.75
63%
Box shareContext
47%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.57
OffsidesContext
1.40
8.63
Shots allowedContext
11.88
2.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.38
2.43
BlocksContext
2.75
1.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
62%
Save rateContext
59%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
572
PassesContext
472
491
Accurate passesContext
405
86%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.77
13.25
FoulsContext
11.63
12.38
Fouls sufferedContext
15.25
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
90%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.30
ShotsContext
10.50
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
33%
On target shareContext
31%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
5.10
59%
Box shareContext
48%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.57
9.90
Shots allowedContext
10.60
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.90
3.13
BlocksContext
2.67
2.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.80
64%
Save rateContext
62%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
569
PassesContext
465
490
Accurate passesContext
399
86%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.81
13.00
FoulsContext
10.90
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Braga
LWDLL
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,479 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 19 · 4 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -4.5 vs expected
Famalicao
DDDWL
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel18 km40 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 30 · 6 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Braga |
Famalicao |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 25 Oct | 7.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 18 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,479 km | 40 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Braga
Last XI · not confirmed
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
44A. Bajrami
6Vitor Carvalho
14G. Lagerbielke
10Pau Víctor
29J. Gorby
8João Moutinho
7Diogo Travassos
50D. Rodrigues
21Ricardo Horta
19J. Wind
Famalicao
Last XI · not confirmed
25L. Carević(G)
28Pedro Bondo
15Víctor Rofino
36M. Mattara
17Rodrigo Pinheiro
21Tamás Szücs
8Marcos Peña
7Sorriso
14M. De Amorim
23Gil Dias
70G. Koutsias
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Braga
No reported absences
Famalicao
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Famalicao+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
SC Braga · Home
1.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.25
Famalicao · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | SC Braga | Famalicao |
|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Sporting CP | L 1–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Santa Clara | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Estoril | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Estrela | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Alverca | W 2–1 A | L 1–4 H |
| Points | 7 of 18 · 1.17 per game | 4 of 18 · 0.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 SC Braga wins3 draws1 Famalicao wins
Goals per game2.25 – 1.38
Over 2.588%
Both scored88%
Clean sheets13% · 0%
- 19 Apr 2026SC Braga2–2Famalicao
- 6 Dec 2025Famalicao1–2SC Braga
- 25 Apr 2025Famalicao1–1SC Braga
- 16 Dec 2024SC Braga3–3Famalicao
- 18 Jan 2024Famalicao1–2SC Braga
- 11 Aug 2023SC Braga1–2Famalicao
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Braga | Famalicao | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 2.38 | 2.63 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 63% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| SC Braga | Famalicao | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.20 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Braga | Famalicao | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 5.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.88 | 3.88 | |
| Match total | 7.13 | 9.63 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 2/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 2.38 | |
| Match total | 4.75 | 4.76 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 5/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| SC Braga | Famalicao | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.20 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 7.40 | 10.10 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.50 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
SC Braga7 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
Famalicao8 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
SC Braga9 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
Famalicao10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
